Borg’s DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 18 (Fantasy Football)

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It’s the final cash lineup review article of the season. Whew. Did you make it out alive?

Every week I unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including H2H record to stay accountable with you.

The DFS Pass goes all throughout the playoffs so stay with us! If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 18 Cash Lineup

Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,000+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.

The Thought Process

Week 18 is its own ecosystem of figuring out how many snaps players will be playing. I sided with players in situations where I knew there would be a near full allotment and mitigate some of the risk.

  • Jonathan Taylor was locked in from Day 1 and I mentioned in the Best Plays article. Anyone that told you they saw Indianapolis getting pummeled against the worst team in the NFL is lying. Taylor seemed like a lock for 100+ rushing yards and a score.
  • I knew I wanted to lean into a 3-RB build so my pool was JTT, D’Onta Foreman, David Montgomery, and Devin Singletary. I have a soft spot for Foreman and the Texans had been allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL. He had a TD taken away or he’d look like an even better play. I was shocked the field believed in him that much as he approached near 50%. Singletary gave me the lone afternoon player in my lineup so if I was behind, he was the easy pivot as a chalk play.
  • Paying up for at least one WR was part of the overall strategy and while Cooper Kupp certainly was enticing, I couldn’t stomach the extra $1,600 it cost to get up from Justin Jefferson. JJetts’ projection was nearly just as strong as Kupp’s and gave me a chance to get a lower roster percentage. He was quiet for the entire first half before erupting in the 2nd half and hitting the 100-yard bonus. Three extra points might not sound like a lot but considering Jefferson averages over 100 receiving yards at home in his career, I factored that in my projections.
  • The wildest part about this lineup construction is that I did not knowingly intend to include both St. Brown brothers in the same lineup. This isn’t a bit. I started by needing some salary savings so punting one WR position was on my radar. I assumed the Packers would pull their starters at some point in the first half and we had the older St. Brown brother to see nearly 40+ snaps. At the stone minimum, all I was looking for is 6-8 points.
  • There were zero narratives at work with the Sun God, Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s been absolutely an inferno over the last month and a half. While his projections were strong and of course, he would play the full amount of snaps. I sifted through the Rams ancillary options (Odell Beckham Jr. & Van Jefferson Jr.), Brandin Cooks, D.J. Moore, and even entertained A.J. Brown. But I did take an early stance on the Lions moneyline which aided my thought process with Amon-Ra. His projections, playing time, and my belief that the Lions would win outright pushed me in his direction.
  • Usually, I have my QB pool created and tightened at the beginning of the week but I legitimately had four guys I thought about using this week. Trey Lance and Taysom Hill were the earlier favorites considering their rushing upside. Lance was ruled out with the Jimmy G news and Josh Allen felt a bit too expensive considering my build. It was between Taysom Hill and Tyler Huntley and I opted for the cheaper one. Huntley was a train wreck but for the same reason, I liked Hill & Lance, rushing QBs that are cheap usually win out in cash.
  • At TE, I had Zach Ertz in all week because his floor seemed so high. But I pivoted to Brevin Jordan in a match I liked the Texans to stay competitive. I took a stance on Texans +10.5 earlier in the week and they definitely kept it close at the end. Jordan goosed but as a punt, I didn’t really care. But because I basically punted a WR and a TE (something I never do), I had to make up the difference in one of my players going nuclear like the Sun God did.
  • The Washington DST was in my lineup the entire week because … well, Jake Fromm. But with the news of the Bengals resting their starters and throwing Brandon Allen out to the wolves, the Browns at home became a great play at home for $500 cheaper. The field must’ve agreed as over half the lineups had them in there.
  • Ultimately, the Jefferson + St. Brown combo made up for an otherwise lousy week getting a goose from Jordan, snowflakes from JTT, nothing much from EQ Brown, and Tyler Huntley self-imploding.

2021 Results

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Week DK Pts H2H Win %
1 129.66 90%
2 88.04 0%
3 194.62 100%
4 129.58 28%
5 164.06 36%
6 142.28 59%
7 143.96 50%
8 135.46 33%
9 109.44 42%
10 148.74 79%
11 88.0 33%
12 116.52 83%
13 199.22 100%
14 107.02 25%
15 135.14 70%
16 142.88 71%
17 146.26 83%
18 121.48* 88%

*I will add a slight technicality to this week’s H2H. I played a slightly different version of the lineup you saw above in my H2Hs solely because of my own stupidity. I made my initial double-up lineup and entered that. Then I created the new contests for H2H and accidentally imported one I used for another contest. Luckily, it had Tyler Lockett in it :)

Comments

Kratz says:

Been listening to the pod all year and this is the first time I’ve found this postmortem breakdown. Extremely helpful. Maybe you should do a version of this on the pod? The details of your choices, especially with the things that didn’t work out, really help. Also – tell me Kyle played Marvin Jones!

Tr0ubl35 says:

I know you said this is the scheduled end but would you be able to do a breakdown of a cash showdown or classic playoffs cash lineup instead?

The analysis this article has is the therapy we all need after good and bad weeks to check the process. I appreciate all the hard work you guys do, I’ve learned a ton in the last 3-4 years listening to the DFS pod and my results have become far more predictable/positive. Congrats on the move out to AZ and look forward to next episodes.

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