Borg’s Cash Lineup Review for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)

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Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including H2H records to stay accountable with you.

If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 12 Cash Lineup

Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,000+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.

The Thought Process

As the week progressed, I’ll share how I slowly built my lineup from my player pool. You’ll notice overall it was a low scoring slate with only 10 games to choose from. It was a couple of small decisions that helped this group move from hovering near the cash line to safely in Double-Up territory this week.

  • Christian McCaffrey was locked in my lineup from Day 1. I never even considered moving off a player with his PPR value. With McCaffrey in my lineup, it quickly became clear that the two most expensive WRs on the slate (Cooper Kupp & Davante Adams) were not going to be part of my build especially with some of the $5K range values I loved at the position. Obviously he was a massive bust but the other RBs that went bananas this week (Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette & Elijah Mitchell) were rostered at such low levels that you probably didn’t feel it in 50/50s.
  • The biggest decision point for this lineup was Justin Herbert over Cam Newton at QB. I never really considered anyone else other than Tom Brady who was cost-prohibitive priced as the QB1 on the slate. Cam’s price increase ($5100 to $5800) made him a good not great play in my opinion. With the Miami defense recently surging, my fears were that Cam’s floor would be way too low compared to players throwing the ball 35+ times like Herbert or Brady. I also didn’t want two Panthers in my lineup. Herbert seemed underpriced relative to the explosive performance he put up last Sunday night.
  • The Texans DST was the punt play all week. At $2,300, it wasn’t hard to see why. The only other DST I considered was the Jaguars at $100 cheaper. But at the end of the day, I sided with the field and the opportunity to stick it to Zach Wilson.
  • At RB, early on in the week, I pegged A.J. Dillon as one of the better values assuming Aaron Jones would sit again. The Packers are notorious for holding out their star players until they are 100% confident in them returning. With the looming Week 13 bye, I figured Dillon would come in lower rostered given he was on the afternoon slate and many did not want to deal with that type of risk. I also liked James Robinson at $6,200 but the Jaguars haven’t been hitting their team implied totals all year. I couldn’t take a risk the team scored <17 points and the TDs didn’t go Robinson’s way.
  • Paying up for CMC meant I needed to save cash somewhere. A couple of cheap RBs fit the bill this week: Miles Sanders ($5100), Ty Johnson ($4200), and Dontrell Hilliard ($4600). Sanders felt like the safest of this group with the Eagles’ propensity to run the heck out of the ball recently. I figured Philly’s offensive line could manhandle the tanking Giants and Sanders at this pricepoint was a solid bet to 3x near 15 DK points.
  • This week wasn’t my favorite initially at TE. Dan Arnold goosed the week before and the only punt options I glanced at were the illustrious Titans duo of Anthony Firkser or Geoff Swaim. But by Friday, Rob Gronkowski‘s salary + slam dunk matchup versus the Colts shined through. At $4,400 ,I wasn’t asking him to do a ton but there was a real ceiling knowing TB/IND was the highest total on the slate. I knew I wanted one of Chris Godwin or Gronk in my lineup but sided with the cheaper play.
  • My WR pool was fairly large this week. I shifted between Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, Van Jefferson Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Brandin Cooks, and Brandon Aiyuk. With Dillon in my lineup, I crossed out Adams. I mentioned siding with Gronk over Godwin but I sweated the Diontae decision a ton early Sunday morning. To be completely honest, a lot of it was due to writing him up as one of my DFS Best Plays. Throwing my ego aside, I loved Cooks’ matchup against a Jets team allowing the highest expected points per pass attempt and at $800 cheaper, I went there instead. And Pittman was too cheap and correlated well with that TB/IND matchup.
  • Jefferson versus Aiyuk was a true decision point. I like Aiyuk more overall as a player and his involvement in the offense recently was encouraging. My main worry was Odell Beckham Jr. getting more involved in the offense in LAR. I had the cash to get up to Aiyuk ($300 more) and I wanted to have at least once piece in the SF-MIN game that I thought would shootout.
  • With Aaron Jones being active, the easy late swap was on to Darrell Henderson Jr. from Dillon for $100 cheaper. This ended up being a moot point as the field was in on Henderson and Dillon actually outscored him despite the workload.
2021 Results

A few solid tournament wins have boosted my overall bankroll this year while this week’s cash double-ups and H2Hs wins put me back in the plus territory for the year on cash. Keep in mind that each week I enter my cash lineup in a different number of 50-50s/H2Hs depending on how busy my weekend is with the family and my overall confidence on the slate. Cash is a grind and I understand if it doesn’t fit your DFS goals. But I enjoy tinkering and searching for the highest probability outcomes while mixing them with my GPP strategies.

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Week DK Pts H2H Win %
1 129.66 90%
2 88.04 0%
3 194.62 100%
4 129.58 28%
5 164.06 36%
6 142.28 59%
7 143.96 50%
8 135.46 33%
9 109.44 42%
10 148.74 79%
11 88.0 33%
12 116.52 83%

Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM for Week 13!

Comments

BigBowser3026 says:

You’re not alone Kevin! This is my fourth straight week of failing in cash lineups which has evaporated most my earnings this season. I’m keeping my enthusiasm by reminding myself that I did well last season and hoping the luck swings back my way.

I admit this last week I broke one of the rules that I try to live my life by – can you guess which one? I can guarantee I won’t make the same mistake this week ;)

1. Don’t lick a steak knife.
2. Never start Cam Newton.
3. Always have duct tape and WD-40 in your house

Kevin Gipson says:

I did’t cash at all this weekend!! If not for cashing on the Thanksgiving slate, I might be forced to retire from DFS altogether! I might just be bad at this!

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