Betz’s Small Field GPP Review: Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to a brand new article for the 2025 DFS season! I get most of my action in cash games and small field tournaments for DFS, shying away from the large field lottos. In this article each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll recap my lineup for small field GPPs on DraftKings, highlighting my process and strategy. For the 2025 season, I’ll usually be playing in the $100 Single Entry Spy on DraftKings.
Contest Format
- $100 Single Entry
- Total Entrants: 334
- Placed Paid: 71/334 (20.6%)
- Rake: 9.9%
Week 9 Small Field GPP Lineup
The Thought Process
-What a wild slate we had in terms of news…when Kyle and I recorded late Thursday afternoon for the Friday podcast, we didn’t have the D’Andre Swift or Rhamondre Stevenson news. Once those guys were ruled out, we had another “pick ’em” slate on our hands with the cheap RB standing out as amazing values. Because of that pricing dynamic, the cash slate turned into a ‘jam ’em in’ type of build – Play Jaxon Dart, the cheap RBs, CMC and spend up on Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and/or Rashee Rice.
-Knowing that this was going to be consensus build, I went for more of a balanced build, spending up slightly at QB and leaning into the mid tier WRs as I thought the cheap WRs were somewhat shaky chalk. Sadly, that fade/leverage strategy did not work out as both popular cheap WRs went off with Olamide Zacchaeus and Parker Washington both smashed at their respective tags.
-With this balanced build, I didn’t want to completely fade the strong cheaper RBs, but I certainly didn’t want to play all three of Tyrone Tracy, Kyle Monangai and TreVeyon Henderson. I really thought all three were good plays in a vacuum, but my sense here heading into the slate was that Monangai was going to get out-sized ownership compared to the other cheap backs. He certainly was! The Bears rookie came in at 75.8% in this contest while Henderson and Tracy got squeezed (relatively speaking) for mid 20s in ownership. Really happy with that read/strategy. Sadly, it didn’t work out as Monangai of course went bonkers on the back of 29 touches!
-Fading Monangai/using him as leverage certainly looks bad in hindsight, but like last week when a player is going to be 65+% owned (remember Bijan?), you do get a huge payoff and reward if that player fails. And to be honest, I didn’t think Monangai would “fail” per se, but I thought if Henderson and/or Tracy could beat him in terms of DK scoring, I’d get paid off in a big way.
-As for my stack, Kyle and I zeroed in on Daniel Jones and the Colts when we talked on the pod this week; I really loved this spot for Indy against a Steelers defense that had struggled for much of the year prior to this week’s game. I decided to go for the double stack wit Pitty City and Tyler Warren in this particular lineup. I played six GPP teams on DraftKings this week and had Dimes stacks in four of those builds. In other stacks, I went with an Alec Pierce skinny, a Josh Downs + Warren double and a Pierce + Warren double. So, I hitched my wagon to Warren (for the most part), and unfortunately, he flopped here. I am happy with the overall read on the game environment where I thought the Colts could be pushed. We’ve seen them just run laps around their opponents all season, and as a result, the Colts entering Week 9 ranked dead last in drop back rate. I thought on the road, we might see Jones and the Colts get pushed for some second half pass volume, and that did come to fruition…so much that even though Jones was terrible, he still got the flames from DK…garbage time, man!
-With that same build/narrative, I decided to use Jaylen Warren as the bring back. Really, really happy to get him at just 10.8% here. He was looking like a slam dunk cash play on Wednesday and Thursday prior to the cheap RBs emerging, so I am thrilled with that read for small field pOwn. I thought if the Colts were going to get pushed, they might be playing from behind, so I used Warren as the game stack partner with the idea that he’d be getting plenty of work in a positive game script. Overall, pretty happy with that PIT/IND read, but in this particular contest, it didn’t work out despite multiple scores from Warren and a great day from Pittman.
-At the top of pricing, I also thought Amon-Ra might get overlooked on this slate despite a really strong matchup against the blitz-happy Vikings. Chase, Puka and Rice were all going to get clicked over St. Brown, yet I personally thought St. Brown would have just as much of a ceiling in this home matchup. He’s been Goff’s blitz beater ever since he emerged as the guy in Detroit, and did deliver with 9 catches for 97…perhaps if he hits the 100-yard bonus and scores, this lineup has the juice to push for a min cash. If the ball bounces the right way, he beats all of Chase, Puka and Rashee.
With the Benefit of Hindsight
-Despite loving the Colts stacks this week, I did not think Jones would get steamed up to 18% here. I thought 10-12% was more of his range. And yet, the field was pretty excited about this game as Jones ended up coming in as the highest rostered QB on the slate. As a result, we saw a trickle down effect with Pittman and Warren getting steamed up. In hindsight, despite loving this spot on paper, I don’t think I would have played this stack had Jones come in at almost 20%.
-This was a really good QB slate for upside – Mahomes and Allen were both high ceiling options, Dart was a great cheap play, and Caleb had a chance to go off against a lowly Cincy defense. Considering ownership, I probably would have pivoted to one of those stacks. I heard some other content around the industry hyping up this game; perhaps I should have been more in tune with that public sentiment.
-Overall, still like the lineup I played, getting good leverage and pOwn reads on the RBs and the expensive WRs. Alas, the cold streak on DraftKings continues…I did take second on FanDuel this week with a Josh Allen team stacked with Dalton Kincaid, so it was a profitable week overall. I’ll see you guys for Week 10, and hopefully I can turn it around on DK!
Weekly Results:
- Week 1: 35th place, $250
- Week 2: 72nd place, $150
- Week 3: 242nd place, $0
- Week 4: 28th place, $150
- Week 5: 312th place, $0
- Week 6: 319th place, $0
- Week 7: 237th place, $0
- Week 8: 287th place, $0
- Week 9: 271st place, $0