Betz’s Small Field GPP Review: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to a brand new article for the 2025 DFS season! I get most of my action in cash games and small field tournaments for DFS, shying away from the large field lottos. In this article each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll recap my lineup for small field GPPs on DraftKings, highlighting my process and strategy. For the 2025 season, I’ll usually be playing in the $100 Single Entry Spy on DraftKings.
Contest Format
- $100 Single Entry
- Total Entrants: 334
- Placed Paid: 71/334 (20.6%)
- Rake: 9.9%
Week 7 Small Field GPP Lineup
The Thought Process
-There were two pretty clear game environments to attack on this slate from a totals perspective: WAS/DAL (54.5) and LAC/IND (48.5). In addition to the game environments looking quite strong from a scoring expectation, these were two of the cleanest spots from a weather perspective with both of these ones being played in a dome. I thought leaning into these games made a ton of sense for GPPs, and the runout there was pretty clean. Both games sailed over the total somewhat easily.
-With the WAS/DAL game looking so strong, I decided to play a Jayden Daniels team. We had a bit of a unique situation with the Commanders with Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel and even Noah Brown all out for this one, opening up a ton of cheap value on that side of the ball. As you’ll see, I went with a Jayden – Jaylin Lane – Zach Ertz stack and brought it back with CeeDee Lamb. I knew Lamb would be wildly popular, but I viewed him as such a strong play at his price that I was okay with leaning into it, especially since I was betting on this game going off anyway. As for my decision to go with Lane, this was one spot I identified as potential leverage. Once we learned about Deebo being downgraded to out, Chris Moore became cash viable at just $3,000, so I figured he get steamed up here.
-I was definitely right on that as he came in just under 30% while Lane came in at 5.7% and Lane actually out-scored Moore (9 to 7.9). Of course, that small of a difference doesn’t really mean anything, but really happy to get that ownership/leverage correct in this spot.
-The other thing about this team that I wanted to lean into, was thinking about what the field was going to do at FLEX. We had a bit of a tricky slate from a pricing perspective where a lot of cash teams featured a TE in FLEX (which is what I played) or a third RB in FLEX. While I definitely didn’t mind those builds, I did think going WR at FLEX was something that would be underplayed on this slate. As mentioned, the LAC/IND game was super appealing to me, so I took a shot on Quentin Johnston in what was a great matchup on paper for him. The Colts were down multiple starting perimeter corners in the secondary. I’m happy about the read on Herbert, as he broke the slate, but unfortunately, most of his production went to Keenan and Gadsden.
-The RBs each week have basically decided GPPs. Through seven weeks, we’ve had some pretty unbelievable plays from a value perspective (almost too many), and when you “choose wrong” you do end up being the eight ball. For this week’s slate, I knew Quinshon Judkins would get steamed up like crazy, and in this tourney, he came in at 57%. Knowing I wanted to play Lamb and Rice, I was trying to avoid that specific trio in the same lineup given how popular that combination would be. Of course, he went off for three scores and almost 100 rushing yards while Breece Hall and the Jets flopped once again. I’ll talk more about that specific decision to play Breece and fade Judkins down below…whoops!
-At DST, it was one of those pay up or punt it off type weeks, and given that I was playing Breece, I didn’t feel comfortable in GPPs playing the Panthers DST given the negative correlation. Of course, all of the chalk DSTs went off with New England (18.3%), Carolina (14.1%) and Cleveland (13.8%) all putting up slate winning scores at their respective price points. I really thought Dart would go on the road and struggle here given the matchup with Denver’s elite defense…tells you a lot about how difficult it is to project game script and game flow with the Broncos barely surviving here in what should have been an easy victory.
With the Benefit of Hindsight
-In general, I feel okay about the lineup I played this week with plenty of correlation and some leverage points. Jayden leaving with a hamstring injury obviously didn’t help…had he stayed in the game and orchestrated another TD drive or two, it would have then pushed Dallas to keep going, helping Javonte and CeeDee along the way, so there was definitely a trickle down effect here as the Commanders couldn’t do anything offensively once Mariota entered the game. It was pretty much curtains for me at that point.
-The one area I certainly am left thinking more about is this RB situation. I’m not upset with the leverage idea/fade of Judkins, but I am upset with trusting projection too much here. Nowadays, everyone who plays DFS somewhat seriously is using projections. Gone are the days of sitting down 30 minutes before lock and clicking in player that you like that week. Most gamers are using an optimizer with projections, and that’s just the reality of the situation. I am one of those folks, after all…but there’s still an art to this game we play. Sometimes, there are spots to exercise more of your individual takes, your ball knowing takes, if you will.
-This Breece/Jets situation is one of those times where I really should have thought more critically about the Breece projection and whether or not I thought he could reach a ceiling, especially relative to ownership. As I stated on the Tuesday DFS Podcast, I was looking at the Jets team total under 21.5 and perhaps play the Panthers against the spread (I never bet NFL sides or totals, but I did bet that one). Systemically, there’s so much downside risk with this team right now – Justin Fields is playing like one of the worst QBs in the league, Aaron Glenn looks lost as a head coach, Garrett Wilson was out leaving New York with literal dust at WR, Breece posted a “Free 20” message on his own socials as he’s been in the trade rumors recently, and the Panthers had been playing well coming into this week, particularly against the run.
-After typing all that out, come on man…don’t be a slave to the projections. That’s my takeaway here for this team, or I guess with that specific decision to play Breece, even at ownership. I think the edge in DFS is shrinking year over year, just like most markets. It will become more efficient over time. The one huge edge that does exist? When you have a take that’s opposite of the numbers. As just mentioned, everyone nowadays is building with projections. If you have a take that’s different than the market and you’re right, the pay off is pretty massive. Now, I will say, we shouldn’t log in every slate and blindly just fade the projections; they’re pretty good after, all! But if you can pick and choose your spots, you can get paid off in a big way.
Weekly Results:
- Week 1: 35th place, $250
- Week 2: 72nd place, $150
- Week 3: 242nd place, $0
- Week 4: 28th place, $150
- Week 5: 312th place, $0
- Week 6: 319th place, $0
- Week 7: 237th place, $0
Comments
I love hearing your thought process. Hope you continue writing this article!