DraftKings Best Ball: 10 Players to Fade
DraftKings 2026 Best Ball streets are…something. Especially after 10 pm. I actually bought peopleofdraftkings.com as a place to post the craziest decisions/rosters constructed because of how insane these get. So, do not be that personofdraftkings.com. Don’t make bad decisions.
Most of the time, the sharpest move is not who you draft. It’s who you do not.
Wasting a single pick can derail your roster construction and kill your advance rate. This piece:
- Identifies what a fade is
- Walks through 10 fades for 2026
- Explains what could go wrong
- Reviews 2025 fades
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth article in a series of DraftKings Best Ball articles for 2026. Find them all HERE.
Identifying Fades
We compared where players are drafted to where our rankings say they should go, using a Blended Rank for each player by combining 60% of the projected PPR rankings from the Ultimate Draft Kit+ and 40% of the Best Ball Rankings. We then took several steps to fit those projections for Best Ball, using metrics you are likely not interested in. But if you are a nerd like me, here you go.
A fade does not mean a player is undraftable! It means the player is being drafted earlier than our rankings suggest. We may still like the player, but not at his current price.
ADPs are accurate as of 6/18/26
Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC)
ADP: 34
Blended Rank: 44
Draft Gap: -10.3
Positional ADP: WR15
Career PPR Finishes
Bring it on, internet. But know, this one hurts me.
Ladd McConkey is a great player, and this is not a bet against the Chargers’ offense. LAC has high expectations after consecutive 11-win seasons and a first-round playoff loss. The issue is price. Ladd is going at ADP 34, and that is a steep cost for a player whose role could be more complicated than the market is pricing in.
The case against Ladd starts with personnel. The Chargers added David Njoku, Charlie Kolar, and FB Alec Ingold, suggesting more 12-personnel after running it less than any other team in the NFL last year. That matters because Ladd’s best role is inside. Last year, he lined up in the slot on 64.0% of his routes and out wide on only 35.1%. If the Chargers use more two-TE sets, the question becomes simple: who stays on the field?
Quentin Johnston played out wide on 85.1% of his routes, while Tre Harris has the bigger, traditional build for outside WR with a 61.2% wide rate. Oronde Gadsden also muddies the middle of the field after running 45.6% of his routes from the slot. That creates more overlap than Ladd’s ADP suggests.
The production gap is also not as massive as the price gap. Ladd led this group in slot usage, but Quentin Johnston actually led the Chargers in receiving yards per game at 52.5. Ladd was right behind him at 49.3, while Gadsden checked in at 44.3. That does not mean Ladd was disappointing. It means the market may be pricing him like the clear alpha when the usage data points to a more crowded distribution.
There is still plenty to like. Ladd’s rookie season was excellent, and he never really got the clean sophomore leap setup we wanted because the offensive line fell apart. Justin Herbert was constantly under pressure and dealing with a non-throwing hand injury, and the WR room took the collateral damage.
Colston Loveland (TE, CHI)
ADP: 40
Blended Rank: 54
Draft Gap: -14.3
Positional ADP: TE3
Career PPR Finishes
Bears better be the best offense in the NFL for six players inside the Top 96 to pay off their ADP. That is the case against Loveland. This offense is not being drafted like a fun upside bet anymore. It is being drafted as if it is a guarantee that we already know it works and is sustainable.
- Loveland is going at 40.
- Luther Burden is right behind him at 42.
- D’Andre Swift is at 52.
- Rome Odunze is at 58.
- Caleb Williams is at 69.
If you try to stack Chicago, good luck. You likely need to pull Loveland or Burden into the third round, double-tap Bears, then hope some fish doesn’t snipe Caleb naked. If Loveland receives all of DJ Moore’s vacant production, congrats. That is how he gets there. Moore leaves behind 82 targets and 682 yards.
But being drafted as TE3, he would have to keep that end-of-the-year tear he was on. I mean, dude killed it, and major props for that. He is amazing. But if you are going to make an argument to look at Loveland’s ridiculous last half of the season, you also have to include Rome’s incredible start to it.
Remember, the Bears still do not have a QB who has thrown for over 4,000 yards in a season. Now, past results aren’t indicative of future performance. The Ballers have Williams’ passing yardage floating right at 4,000 and flirting with 28 TDs (averaged). Is that enough?
If this Bears offense hits (and I mean hits, hits), he could pay off by separating as the alpha. But from an opportunity perspective, Rome and Burden each have plenty of signals suggesting they could be an alpha, too. Burden likely gets the Sophomore WR bump we see in fantasy so often. And while Rome’s injury may be pushing the market toward Loveland and Burden in June, that could feel like an overreaction by August.
Rome’s 26% first-read target rate led the team by almost 9%. He also led the team with a 22% target share, while Loveland and Moore had 15% and Burden 12%. Yet, Rome is the cheapest of the group?
I love Mr. Loveland. I love the Bears’ offense. I hate the prices.
DJ Moore (WR, BUF)
ADP: 46
Blended Rank: 69
Draft Gap: -22.9
Positional ADP: WR22
Career PPR Finishes
DJ Moore is a fun NFL player, but fantasy has always priced him as if he were about to be more than he usually is. Moore is being drafted as the WR22, and that is fine; his career has mostly lived in that WR2 range: WR22, WR20, WR22, WR18, WR17. The outlier was the 2023 eruption. That season is doing a lot of emotional heavy lifting in his current price because now he gets Josh Allen, so of course, he will be better, right?
Yes, it’s a QB upgrade. But it is not automatically a volume upgrade. Allen is one of the rare fantasy QB1 overall finishers who has done it without producing a top 36 WR. Buffalo has had no issue spreading the ball around, letting Allen carry the fantasy ceiling himself, and leaving the pass catchers to fight over scraps.
But last year’s WR33 is worrisome. Over the last two years, no Bills player has run more than 393 routes in a season. Moore ran 512 last year. The highest target count for any Bills player in that span was 97. Moore had 138 targets and still did not finish as a top 30 WR.
He will need efficiency and long TDs out the wazoo to pay this off.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
ADP: 92
Blended Rank: 107
Draft Gap: -14.6
Positional ADP: QB12
Career PPR Finishes
This is not me saying Patrick Mahomes is bad or washed. Please do not make me wear that take. The issue is that Mahomes is priced as if the name carries more weekly fantasy ceiling than the projections show. Mahomes is ranked QB17, projected for 350.6 fantasy points.
Best Ball is about finding upside (projections are more median-based), so I understand taking the shot, because finishing as QB1 is in the realm of outcomes. He has done it twice already.
Don’t forget he tore his ACL in December. Every player is ahead of their recovery timeline in June. But what happens when camp opens up?
Mahomes is working back from ACL and LCL tears and is reportedly targeting Week 1. Maybe he comes back on the field and goes ham. But at ADP 92, we are paying for that to happen immediately while also needing the Chiefs’ offense to return to a true fantasy ceiling environment. When he was the #1 QB, he had prime Tyreek Hill and/or Travis Kelce. Mahomes can still be very good without being the optimal pick in this range, but it’s his supporting cast that’s worrisome.
Mahomes is always capable of making this look stupid. But the fade is not about Mahomes himself. It is about paying top-100 draft capital for a QB with injury recovery risk and a projection profile that looks more like a tier play than a clear advantage.
Jonathon Brooks (RB, CAR)
ADP: 103
Blended Rank: 166
Draft Gap: -62.3
Positional ADP: RB36
Career PPR Finishes
The idea of Jonathon Brooks is likely stronger than what he actually is. Former second-round pick. Explosive college profile. Cheap access to a backfield that could be better than people expect. I get it, you can’t coach speed. But the Panthers have a 7.5 win total, and he is not the starting RB. There are starting RBs behind him that you can still take shots on (MIN, WAS).
Voice of public opinion: “Since the Panthers will be behind a lot, he will get a lot of check-downs.” Brooks averaged 2.5 receptions per game in his final college season, which is part of why the fantasy community wants to believe there is a three-down ceiling here. But our projections have him averaging less than a catch per game. If that is the case, he needs rushing volume, TDs, and a better-than-expected Panthers offense. Can CAR do that?
At RB36, Brooks is no longer a free click because his ADP is climbing. With more camp hype, it may push into the 100s. There is a world where he outplays Chuba (like Rico did last year), and he ends up as the one in terms of fantasy. If that’s the bet you are taking, I can see the appeal for drafting him in zero-RB builds.
Shoutout to Best Ball Explorer for the data below. It’s totally free and a great resource to track Best Ball throughout the summer.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
ADP: 114
Blended Rank: 140
Draft Gap: -26
Positional ADP: TE10
Career PPR Finishes
He was a monster against zone coverage last year, leading the TE position at 0.72 fantasy points per route. He was the only TE over 0.50, and that number was the best zone mark by a TE in the last four years. He can find space. Like DJ Moore, this is the same Buffalo volume problem we just talked about, only at a position where the margin for error is even smaller.
His career finishes are TE11, TE28, and TE15. He has flashed, but he has not become the locked-in difference-maker we thought after being picked in the first round. At TE10, we are paying for the breakout that is coming in year four, when multiple TEs fall in the same bucket. His 11th-round ADP aligns perfectly with Allen’s 3rd, so players forcing the stack have likely pulled his ADP up five to ten picks higher than it should be, creating a misprice.
Isaiah Likely (TE, NYG)
ADP: 122
Blended Rank: 151
Draft Gap: -28.5
Positional ADP: TE12
Career PPR Finishes
His old coach is now his new coach, John Harbaugh. Now in NY, the familiarity is not in question. That is the problem. We have heard about the expanded Isaiah Likely role for years, but it has never fully materialized.
His on-field ability and occasional spike week give us just enough to keep the light on for, but not enough weekly volume to justify being drafted as the TE12. How will he and Theo Johnson co-exist? At this price, we are paying for a role change that we cannot confirm at this moment.
The argument against this is that the Giants’ WR room is in shambles. For real: OBJ, JuJu, Darnell Mooney, Calvin Austin, and so much more. Seriously? So, will the offense look more like Baltimore’s did? If that’s the case, Likely will flirt with the 15 – 20ish TE finish when there are other players you can draft later with the same chance of finishing as a TE1.
The WR Free Agents
Name
ADP
Blended Rank
Draft Gap
Stefon Diggs
137
193
-55.8
Deebo Samuel Sr.
178
210
-31.7
Tyreek Hill
183
211
-27.4
All three of these players have massive draft gaps because they were not ranked by the Footballers at the time of the data pull.
Diggs: The question with Stefon Diggs is not whether he can still play after posting 85 receptions for 1,013 yards. The issue is, we have no idea what his next role is. At ADP 137, you can take Diggs, but Jalen McMillan, Rashid Shaheed, Omar Cooper Jr., and Jauan Jennings are all going shortly after him with cleaner current situations. Shaheed brings spike-week upside through long TDs, while Cooper is still a first-round pick, even if it is for the Jets. If Diggs lands somewhere like the Rams (#rumormill), his ADP will shoot up two or three rounds, but how much work is he really taking from Puka Nacua or Davante Adams if that goes down? If you want to bet on the signing bump, now is the time.
Deebo: Deebo is another name-value trap. The market still talks about him like the 2021 version is coming back, when he posted 77 receptions, 1,405 yards, and six receiving TDs. That season was awesome, but it is also doing a ton of work in his current reputation. Outside of that year, his next highest receiving season is 892 yards, and last year he finished with 72 receptions for 727 yards. That is still useful football, but not the kind of profile I want to draft when I can take shots on guys like:
- Tre Harris – post Keenan Allen
- Tank Dell – huge spike week guy
- Calvin Ridley – some sportsbooks have his o/u yardage at 850
If Deebo lands somewhere creative and gets manufactured touches, fine, the price will move. But right now, we are paying for the memory of a ceiling season that has not been repeated. He has been rumored to the Colts, so the fit would work. But like Diggs, how much would he take from the two starters already there?
Hill: Same argument as Deebo, except he is a way worse fella. An off-field issue could pop up at any point. He is trending towards the Antonio Brown end of career off the field, and Josh Gordon production on the field. Give me the guys with guaranteed jobs.
Fernando Mendoza (QB, LV)
ADP: 168
Blended Rank: 198
Draft Gap: -30.3
Positional ADP: QB29
Career PPR Finishes: NA (Rookie)
Mendoza is the kind of late QB bet that looks fine until you ask how high the ceiling actually goes. He probably steals a few rushing TDs near the goal line, but this is not a true rushing profile, with projections sitting at only 150 rushing yards. That means he has to matter as a passer, and the current projection of 1,700 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, eight INTs, and 8.5 fantasy points per game does not scream tournament-winning upside. At QB29, I understand the click if you need a third QB, but unless the Raiders offense is much better than expected, Mendoza feels like you are forcing a third QB so you do not have to deal with the ATL/CLE situation.
He does have a juicy matchup indoors for Week 17 against Arizona and plenty of stack options in the later rounds.
De’Zhaun Stribling (WR, SF)
ADP: 178
Blended Rank: 208
Draft Gap: -30.1
Positional ADP: WR69
Career PPR Finishes: NA (Rookie)
De’Zhaun Stribling feels like a classic SF draft bump (shoutout Dante Pettis, Tyrion Davis-Price, and third-round kicker Jake Moody). The 49ers have a history of pulling players up the board earlier than consensus, and Stribling was widely viewed as more of a Day 3 type before going 33rd overall. Maybe they nailed it, but at ADP 178, the market is already giving him a role he still has to earn.
SF brought in Mike Evans, added Christian Kirk, and Ricky Pearsall is not losing snaps if he stays healthy. That leaves Stribling fighting for a path to relevance. At this point in the draft, I would rather pass on the 100%-owned rookies in the top 200 and find similar opportunities after pick 200 with lower ownership.
In tournaments, getting different matters, and I’m fine taking other shots on WR3s still available. Holler if you hear me, Pat Bryant truthers.
Auditing 2025 Fades
We believe in transparency ’round these parts, so let’s check the receipts from last year. Fades are not about dunking on players. They are about whether the price was worth paying and whether the pivots gave us better ways to build rosters to achieve higher advance rates.
16.67% is the baseline for the advance rate because two teams out of twelve move on to the next round (2/12 = 16.67%)
| Name | ADP | Win Rate | Top 6% | Verdict | Result |
| Terry McLaurin | 31 | 6% | 44% | Landmine | Right |
| James Cook | 39 | 20% | 71% | Value | Wrong |
| Joe Burrow | 46 | 5% | 40% | Landmine | Right |
| Bo Nix | 91 | 9% | 53% | Landmine | Right |
| Jonnu Smith | 110 | 7% | 46% | Landmine | Right |
| D’Onte Thornton Jr. | 191 | 6% | 42% | Landmine | Right |