The NFL and the fantasy football landscape changes every year, and the QB position is a perfect example of the fluidity of points in fantasy. From the Shocking Stats Episode, hosts Andy, Mike, and Jason uncovered some truly eye-opening statistics that help give a lay of the QB landscape.
In 2017, for example, there were only 17 QB performances of 30 or more fantasy points. The league equaled that number in the first four weeks in 2018, then saw almost double the amount of 30+ QB fantasy performances. In 2017, there were six QBs who completed 65% or more of their passes, yet last year we saw twenty. We also saw almost 100 more passing touchdowns in 2018 than we did the previous year.
Just because the QB position has seen a spike in fantasy production, it doesn’t mean you still can’t find value at the position in the later rounds. In the Top-10 QB Rankings episode, Andy, Mike, and Jason break down their consensus rankings for 2019 and evaluate where they are being taken in drafts.
Also, check out My Guys + Players to Forgive to get the Ballers takes on their QB “my guys”.
ADP and projections are based a 12-team league, half-PPR, and 6 points per passing touchdowns. For 4 points per passing touchdowns, check out the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit and customize the data with your league’s custom scoring.
1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – ADP 3.07
Consistency Rank #1 — Season Finish QB1
Andy – 1, Mike – 1, Jason – 1
It should come as no surprise that Andy, Mike, and Jason all have Mahomes as their QB1. He regularly scored more than 20+ points with the exception of 3 weeks. 63% of his games were “great”, and 94% were considered “good”, and he never busted.
Great, good, and bust games can be found in the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit.
The big knock against Mahomes is that he is due for regression. However, he completed 383 passes on 580 attempts for 5,097 yards and FIFTY touchdowns. If he regresses by 20%, you’re looking at 464 attempts. Assuming the same completion percentage of 66%, he should be around 306 pass completions and 40 touchdowns. So, still really, really good.
2. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – ADP 6.01
Consistency Rank #11 — Season Finish QB6
Andy – 2, Mike – 2, Jason – 3
Since 2009, Rodgers has finished in the top-10 eight times and finished top-5 seven times. He finished as the QB6 last year, with 597 attempts, 372 completions for 4,442 yards and career-low passing touchdowns at 25. He also rushed 43 times for 269 yards and two touchdowns.
Mike McCarthy is gone, so the passing game to should open back up for Rodgers, giving the opportunity for a bounce-back year. Investing in Rodgers this year is going to be investing in what he will be, not what he has been in recent years as well as the growth of the talent around him.
3. DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – ADP 5.05
Consistency Rank #3 — Season Finish QB4
Andy – 3, Mike – 3, Jason – 2
There is no doubt Watson is an elite quarterback. With a QB4 finish, he had 345 completions on 505 attempts for 4,165 yards and 26 touchdowns. Of course, it’s his ability to run that makes Watson such dual threat by adding 99 rush attempts for 551 yards and five rushing touchdowns, (the most of our top-10 QBs.) Only four games were bust games, while the remaining 69% were good and 31% were considered great.
Watson was also a lethal threat in the red zone with a touchdown every 3.8 pass attempts in the red zone, which was 2nd highest in the league behind only Baker Mayfield. Plus, he had 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the red zone.
With such incredible numbers within the 20s, there are questions surrounding TD regression. However, the biggest issue Watson faces in 2019 is the Swiss-cheese offensive line, ranked 31st worst in the league by The Huddle.
4. Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP 8.01
Consistency Rank #7 — Season Finish QB23
Andy – 5, Mike – 11, Jason – 4
Wentz played 11 games last year and completed 279 passes on 401 attempts for 3,074 yards and 21 touchdowns. Injury restrictions kept him from leaving the safety of the pocket and he rushed only 34 times for 93 yards.
This year with a healthy back and brace-free knee, Wentz is poised for an explosive year. The addition of DeSean Jackson adds the downfield threat that was missing last year to create space for Zach Ertz and the emerging Dallas Goedert. While Wentz did not finish the year with any great games, 73% were good and 27% were bust games of under 15 points. He was on pace in 2018 for over 4,400 yards and 30.5 touchdowns.
Wentz staying on the field with massive weapons at his disposal will equal fantasy points in 2019. And, according to Andy who can see the future, the Eagles will win the Super Bowl this year.
5. Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts – ADP 6.05
Consistency Rank #4 — Season Finish QB5
Andy – 6, Mike 9, Jason – 6
We finally saw Luck on the field after sitting out the entirety of the 2017 season. He returned true to form with 420 completions on 639 attempts for nearly 4,600 yards and 39 touchdowns. 6% of his games were great, 25% busts, but 75% good in 2018. Luck had the third-most passing attempts in the red zone at 100 and completed 30 attempts inside the 10-yard-line.
Currently, Luck is dealing with a lingering calf injury and is not participating in joint practices with the Browns. There is no doubt Luck is a bonafide top-5 QB when he is on the field and healthy. However, fantasy owners need to continue to monitor his calf injury as the preseason progresses.
6. Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons – ADP 7.06
Consistency Rank #2 — Season Finish QB2
Andy – 4, Mike – 4, Jason – 14
Ryan completed 422 passes on 608 attempts for 4,924 yards and 35 touchdowns. He even rushed in three touchdowns and had 33 rush attempts for 125 yards.
While Andy and Mike have Ryan ranked at 4th, Jason is concerned for Ryan’s touchdown numbers this year although he has projected the QB for well over 4,000 yards. His average 16-game pace over the last four years has Ryan with only 28 touchdowns, pushing him outside of the top-12. However, with the maturity of Calvin Ridley, their elite WR in Julio Jones, and Austin Hooper, the possibility to eclipse 30 touchdowns is present in 2019.
7. Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams – ADP 9.09
Consistency Rank #13 — Season Finish QB7
Andy – 8, Mike – 7, Jason – 8
The Sean McVay effect has had its influence around the league, starting with his own offense and spreading like fire through the NFL. The entire Rams offense experienced a fantasy injection in this new offense, and Goff proved that he truly is the sports car that former head coach Jeff Fisher kept locked away in the garage.
2018 saw career-high numbers for Goff with 364 completions on 561 attempts for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns plus 43 rush attempts for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns. The career highs continued with 64.9% pass completion percentage, a QBR of 65.4, and 293 yards per game (40 more yards per game than last year).
There will be some uncertainty surrounding Todd Gurley’s knee in the 2019 season and whether or not the supporting cast of running backs such as Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will have to, or be able to, step in to fill the role.
Goff finished as QB12 in 2017 then as the QB7 last year. If the offense can remain explosive in both the run and pass game, Goff should finish in the top-10 yet again at the end of 2019.
8. Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns – ADP 6.12
Consistency Rank#19 — Season Finish QB16
Andy – 9, Mike – 5, Jason – 9
Mayfield was the victim of Hugh Jackson and the atrocious Browns offense in the first half of the season. Once Jackson was fired, things turned around for the QB and the offense as a whole. He finished as the QB16 with 14% of his games being great, 50% being good, and 50% bust games. Remember, four out of the seven bust games were under Jackson.
New HC Freddie Kitchens and new OC Todd Monken finally have this offense to themselves and will take the training wheels off of Mayfield. Adding Odell Beckham Jr. only gives the QB another super talented weapon in the supporting cast with Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Nick Chubb, to name a few. 2019 should see the continuation of Mayfield flourishing under Kitchens’ fast-paced, air-raid style offense that Mayfield utilized in college.
9. Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers – ADP 8.12
Consistency Rank #6 — Season Finish QB12
Andy – 14, Mike – 6, Jason – 5
Booty Scootin’ Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury that prevented him from being the QB we know and love in fantasy. Even with the injury, he still had 4 great games, 5 good games, and only three bust games during his 14-game stretch last year. He threw 320 pass completions on 471 attempts for 3,395 yards and 13 touchdowns while rushing 101 times for 488 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Since 2011, Newton has finished in the top-4 five times. 2014 and 2016 were QB 17 finishes and last year he finished as the QB12 while injured and missing two games. He is an incredible value in fantasy drafts as an elite producing QB in the late 8th Round.
10. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – ADP 8.04
Consistency Rank #14 — Season Finish QB8
Andy – 10, Mike – 8, Jason – 10
The Saints’ identity has been changing from the high-flying Brees bombs downfield to the explosive run game from Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram last year. As this transition continues, Brees rankings remain in the top-10, but steadily drop down the list. The Saints have also started utilizing the Tasem Hill as a Swiss-army knife as the QB in the red zone.
There is no question that Brees is still a great QB. Last year he completed 364 passes on 489 attempts for 3,992 yards and 32 touchdowns. He also only threw five interceptions, while tacking on 31 rush attempts for 22 yards and four touchdowns. However, in order for Brees to be higher on the list, he would need to have a stronger rushing performance, which is unlikely to happen with Kamara and Hill.
Check out the Top-10 QB Rankings episode and to see who Andy, Mike, and Jason believe has the biggest bust potential this season.