The Fantasy Footballers’ My Guys for 2021

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It’s that time of year!  The Fantasy Footballers announced their official “My Guys” picks on Friday’s podcast!  This is one of the greatest episodes that they release every year.  

What’s a #MyGuy, you ask?  It’s a player that you plant your flag on for the season.  This is directly tied to average draft position (ADP).  In other words, Andy, Mike, and Jason believe that these players will outperform their ADP and help people win championships this season.

Andy’s My Guys

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

Last season from Week 14 on, Brady averaged 33.8 points per game for the next eight games.  He is still incredibly motivated and hasn’t shown any signs of regression.  Last season, he had the third most completions of 20+ yards, fourth most completions of 40+ yards, and finished FIRST in air yards per attempt in the entire NFL.  From Week 7 on last year, he was the QB6.  He’s now entering year two with the Buccaneers, and quarterbacks under Bruce Arians have a history of taking a large leap forward in year two.  Draft the Plant Man and enjoy!

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

Higbee had a ton of hype entering the 2020 season and largely disappointed.  He is now being drafted as the TE12 (ADP 10.06).  What’s changed since last year?  First, his counterpart Gerald Everett is no longer on the team.  Additionally, the Rams upgraded their quarterback in Matthew Stafford.  Stafford has a history of targeting the tight ends.  In three of the last four seasons with Stafford, Lions tight ends saw a target share over 21%.  Higbee also ahas the intangibles for big plays.  Even last year, he was in the top half in yards after catch and had the sixth most 20+ yard receptions.  Higbee has a low draft cost and a ton of upside.

Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)

Mooney set the franchise record for most receptions as a Bears rookie.  He finished 5th among rookie wide receivers in target share (16.5%).  He also had the eighth most broken tackles by any wide receiver in the NFL.  Mooney accomplished these feats with terrible quarterback play.  Anthony Miller is no longer on the team.  He is primed to make a massive jump and is nearly undrafted in fantasy.  Scoop him up late in redraft and target him in dynasty leagues!

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Jason’s My Guys

CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)

CeeDee is special, which is being somewhat discounted due to Dak’s injury last season and Justin Jefferson’s best rookie season ever.  Don’t forget that Lamb finished as a top-24 WR last season with Andy Dalton throwing him the ball…in a Covid year.  Lamb is one of seven rookie WR’s with 70+ receptions & 900 yards in the last decade.  We know from Jason’s Sophomore Bump article that sophomore wide receivers tend to outperform their ADP.  The Cowboys have a stacked offense and could easily be a team that produces two top-12 WR’s in Lamb and Cooper.  Every year it happens to at least one NFL team, don’t forget!  CeeDee Lamb is already one of the best wide receivers in the league, and cream rises to the top.  True alpha WRs in the NFL demand targets and make the most of them.  Lamb fits the mold and is going to have a huge year.

Getty Images / Scott Taetsch

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

CEH has the same opportunity he had last year, but he’s being drafted two rounds later.  People have a sour taste in their mouth and he’s being drafted at his floor.  Don’t forget that CEH had 1,100 total yards and was the RB11 last season before missing games after Week 12.  He only had four rushing touchdowns last season – that is almost certainly going to increase.  The Chiefs have since improved their offensive line.  Additionally, he only had 36 receptions last year but is a pass-catching specialist.  He should see an increase in passing volume, which is even more valuable than rushes for fantasy.  Take a shot on CEH in the third, you won’t regret it!

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

As mentioned earlier, there is a very high hit rate with second-year wide receivers.  He was a top-36 WR last season and missed four games.  He’s being drafted in the 6th round and has a ton of upside.  From Weeks 3 to 15, Aiyuk had a 23.7% market share.  He also had 100+ yards or a TD in nine of his 12 games last season.  Aiyuk had as many top-12 WR weeks as Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and more than Justin Jefferson.  Jason brings up a great point: “When I see a 1st round NFL draft pick who has 5 top 12 performances as a rookie in 12 games, finishes as a top 36 WR in his rookie year, who passes the eyeball test with dominant performances, and only costs a 6th round pick… that’s a my guy”

Mike

Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)

Lockett just got paid like an alpha wide receiver and has been a staple for the Seahawks for years.  He saw a ton of volatility with up and down games in 2020.  But don’t overreact!  We always hear that the Seahawks want to “run the ball”, but they were in the top half in pass rate.  Lockett had the fourth most end zone targets in the NFL last season, which is fantasy gold.  Over their last 312 targets, Locket has more receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns than Davante Adams!  Lockett is a steal in the 5th round of drafts as a guy who has finished as a top-15 WR in each of the past three seasons.

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Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)

Last season, Claypool balled out as a rookie on a team with two other solid receivers.  Claypool saw more targets per route run than Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin.  Claypool sees a ton of deep and end zone targets, which are valuable for fantasy.  In fact, he was tied for 4th most targets of 20+ yards downfield and he was ranked 9th in air yards.  Claypool saw the same amount of end zone targets as Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins.  The Steelers are scheming to get him the ball.  Claypool is being drafted in the 6th round is yet again a sophomore wide receiver (great hit rate to outperform).  Draft with confidence.

Trey Lance (QB, SF)

Lance is a rookie QB fighting for the starting job.  It’s yet to be determined if Jimmy G will start Week 1 and when Lance will get his call up.  Lance has been impressing at camp and in the preseason.  Lance is a great rusher, which is awesome for fantasy.  Since 1990, every rookie QB that surpassed 80 rushing attempts has maintained a top-10 pts/g pace in fantasy.  Lance only costs a 12th round draft pick but has upside as a dominant fantasy QB!

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