Snap Count Observations: Week 3

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Roles are beginning to identify themselves. Trends will now become more important than perceptions. With 3 weeks of data, we shouldn’t be forced to guess as much.  Then again, this is still fantasy football.

Rob Gronkowski 22%

With only 1 target and 0 catches, Gronk disappointed his fantasy owners in his first game back from injury. More importantly, he is back. Week 4 could be interesting due to New England’s questionable QB status. Starting in Week 5 alongside the return of Tom Brady, Gronk should be back to elite TE1 status.

Will Fuller 100%

The scouting report coming out of Notre Dame on Fuller has proved to be accurate thus far. He will drop a few passes, but he will also separate himself from defenders and make big plays. He may not reach his full potential, but playing 100% of snaps, at least his opportunities should be consistent.

John Brown 57% / Jaron Brown 48%

This is more like it! Hopefully, this is the beginning of an upward trend for John Brown. He does not appear in position to out snap Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd, but if he does get a grip on the #3 spot, he can still produce like many expected him to. He had the same amount of targets as Floyd (11) in week 3, only 1 behind Fitzgerald (12) and 5 more than Jaron Brown (6). Continue to monitor, but as of now, you can feel more comfortable starting John Brown.

Jerick McKinnon 65% / Matt Asiata 35%

Asiata was as attractive as McKinnon on waivers last week. Asiata being viewed as the goal line back convinced some. TDs are hard to predict, but the usage in Week 3 is how I see this newly formed RBBC playing out. McKinnon is the player to own.

2016 (Week 3) Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
McKinnon 16 45 0 2 1 2 0
Asiata 6 15 0 1 1 4 0
Melvin Gordon 87% / Dexter McCluster 15%

Gordon’s rushing TD saved the day, but he did not run the ball well (2.2 YPC). The great sign for Gordon’s owners going forward was his 25-yard reception. It showed that he is capable of being a pass catching back with Woodhead out for the season. I expect McCluster to get more snaps as he gains comfort in the offense. However, salvaging a bad rushing day with a TD and 43 yards through the air, make Gordon a must start. He may even challenge for #1 RB fantasy status at year’s end.

Jordan Howard 75% / Jeremy Langford 23%

The snap count is misleading because Langford left the game early with an injury. Interestingly, Howard had 6 (rushes/targets) to Langford’s 5 before Langford exited the game. The shift to Howard was underway. The injury may have cemented it.

Theo Riddick 66% / Dwayne Washington 37%

The game got out of hand early, so it is not surprising to see Riddick, the pass catching back, nearly double Washington’s snap count. Washington ran the ball better and Riddick remains a threat as a receiver. I look forward to seeing this RBBC play out over the next few weeks. Logic tells us to expect 12-16 carries for Washington and 12-16 carries/targets for Riddick. Both players have value in deep leagues but neither is a threat to garner RB1 status with Ameer Abdullah out with an injury.

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2016 (Week 3) Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
Riddick 10 9 0 9 7 39 0
Washington 10 38 0 1 1 -3 0
T.J. Yeldon 50% / Chris Ivory 48%

The Jaguars wasted no time implementing the 50/50 RBBC split we were told to expect. Yeldon had a golden opportunity in week 1 & 2 to seize the RB1 role but failed to do so. Neither player performed well in week 3 but Ivory’s 13 rushes/targets compared to Yeldon’s 9 are a very bad sign for Yeldon owners.

2016 (Week 3) Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
Yeldon 6 17 0 3 2 11 0
Ivory 12 14 0 1 1 9 0
Terrelle Pryor 95%

Wow, what a stat line! I doubt we can expect this consistently, but I’d be remiss not to mention it.

2016 (Week 3) Completions Attempts Yards TD/INT Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
Pryor 3 5 35 0/0 4 21 1 14 8 144 0
Kenyan Drake 40% / Jay Ajayi 27% / Isaiah Pead 18%

This is an RBBC I want no part of.

Sammie Coates 67% / Darrius Heyward-Bey 45% / Markus Wheaton 45% / Eli Rogers 35%

Prior to exiting in the 3rd quarter with a toe injury, Rogers was open more than anyone other than Antonio Brown. His quickness will do him little good for fantasy owners if he is not on the field, though. As it stands, I do not see much consistent value for any receiver on Pittsburgh other than Brown. It almost feels like they have 4 #2 WRs.

Cameron Brate 78%

With the Austin Seferian-Jenkins era mercifully coming to a close in Tampa Bay (good luck Jets), Brate makes a nice streaming TE option. The drum beat was loud for him in the offseason and with a clear path now, he could provide nice value.

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