Snap Count Observations: Week 2

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RB injuries are the glaring Week 2 narrative. Injuries make snap count observations obsolete. The following conclusions are based on what we saw on the field sans injury complications:

Matt Forte 81% / Bilal Powell 23%

Thoughts of an RBBC in New York seem fleeting at best. Much like his Chicago tenure, Forte is still a weapon in the running and passing game. Other than providing occasional rest for Forte, Powell only holds handcuff value at this point. However, I am not cutting bait on Powell yet. Forte is 30 years old and with a heavy early season workload, his health and durability remain a concern.

Devin Funchess 65% / Kelvin Benjamin 63%

Kelvin Benjamin is the apple of Cam Newton’s eye. Funchess (4 targets) was on the field more but does not get open often enough to take targets away from the steady Benjamin (9 targets). Funchess will score the occasional TD as he did in Week 2, but Benjamin is the only true difference maker.

Carlos Hyde 60% / Shaun Draughn 34%

Hyde was one of a handful of RBs we thought would be workhorses this year. A 60/34 split is not overly alarming, but the way Draughn was used in Week 2, is concerning. He clearly has earned trust, as he was on the field during crucial situations. Hyde did not play well against a stout Panthers front 7 and had an early fumble, so perhaps Hyde owners should not be too worried. Personally, I am not a big Hyde fan and would not be surprised to see Draughn assume the lead back role later this season.

Justin Forsett 55% / Terrance West 28%

Neither RB is playing well this season:

2016 (Weeks 1 & 2) Rushes Yards TD Targets Receptions Yards TD
Forsett 24 78 0 7 5 24 0
West 23 74 0 5 3 21 0

The door is wide open for Kenneth Dixon. If you have Dixon, keep him. If you don’t, find a way to get him on your team.

Larry Fitzgerald 89% / Michael Floyd 80%/John Brown 42%/Jaron Brown 42%

John Brown has 2 receptions for 22 yards this season. Sound the alarm! John Brown cannot be in any starting fantasy lineups unless something changes quickly. Be it lack of confidence, poor play or lingering fears from his preseason concussion, John Brown is developing into the biggest bust of 2016 thus far.

DeMarco Murray 61% / Derrick Henry 46%

Some RBBC situations include two undesirable players. This one, however, consists of two intriguing RBs. The split may vary between the two all year, but I am confident starting them both without hesitation.

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Marvin Jones 92% / Golden Tate 89%

As predicted by many experts this offseason, Jones is the actual #1 in Detroit, regardless of being drafted 4 rounds later in most fantasy drafts. Early congratulations to those who passed on Tate, patiently drafting Jones for value.

2016 (Weeks 1 & 2) Targets Receptions Yards TD
Jones 21 12 203 0
Tate 16 9 54 0
Davante Adams 76% / Jeff Janis 0%

If you invested in Janis as the potential #3 in Green Bay, cut bait now.

Kenny Stills 98% / Jarvis Landry 94% / DeVante Parker 92%

Miami was playing catch-up the whole game. However, I will pay attention to these splits over the next few weeks, as I am thinking 3 WR sets may become the norm. I was worried about Parker until I saw his target rate in Week 2.

2016 (Week 2) Targets Receptions Yards TD
Landry 13 10 137 0
Parker 13 8 106 0
Stills 4 2 39 1
Latavius Murray 48% / Jalen Richard 21% / DeAndre Washington 20%

The only thing worse than an RBBC is a 3 headed RBBC. Murray had fewer targets/carries (14 to 15) than the Richard/Washington combo in Week 2. It feels like Murray’s role will continue to diminish.

Paul Richardson 67% / Tyler Lockett 40%

Lockett is an explosive player as evidenced by his 53 yard reception in Week 2. With his slight injury this week, I wonder if Seattle is limiting his snap counts in order to keep him fresh. I consider Lockett a trade target right now.

Darren Sproles 57% / Ryan Mathews 29%

Mathews has a stranglehold on goal line opportunities. He has 10 in two games thus far, the next highest player(s) in the NFL have only 5. The snap split is concerning, though, as goal line opportunities cannot always be counted on.

 

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