Snap Count Observations: Week 1

Wednesday, September 13, 2017
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Week 1. Joy of football. Passion of rooting on your favorite team. Competitiveness of fantasy football. Perhaps most importantly, TRUTH. Coach speak and off season tropes have no place in Week 1. It is only the first glimpse into each teams intentions and they can change from week to week. We finally have some evidence to back up our fantasy football hypotheses. We should not overreact after Week 1, but we should not be too passive either. Let’s examine who was on the field in Week 1 and what it may mean going forward. These are my Snap Count Observations.

Not being able to trust the Patriots backfield is one of fantasy football’s worst kept secrets. Gillislee did assume the “Blount” role as many had predicted and James White continues to build off his amazing Super Bowl performance. If you own any Patriots RB, keep them. Only start Burkhead and Lewis when desperate, though.

Jones played 1 less play than Matthews but had 1 more target. Jones only converted 1 of those targets into a catch. Do not lose faith in the rookie. He should display continued growth this year and will be the #1 in Buffalo soon.

Cohen was the Bears best offensive player on Sunday. His small stature (5’6″ 180 lbs) scares some fantasy owners, but as the Bears coaches have said, he’s not small, he’s short. Cohen took some big, nasty hits on Sunday and bounced back up every time. Howard’s RB1 status is at risk, but I feel both players can sustain value throughout the year. The Bears lack in pass catching play makers, so the RBs will have a role in both the running and passing game. Acquire Cohen immediately.

What a mess! Mixon did not perform well in Week 1, Hill hardly played and Gio was effective but not spectacular. Perhaps the Ravens defense is amazing, so I won’t draw too may conclusions for these snap counts, but it is worth monitoring closely over the next few weeks.

With Woodhead hurt early, the Ravens turned into a pure RBBC. Neither player caught a pass (1 target each) but both ran well. The under-owned Allen represents a nice value on waiver wires, but neither player will match the potential of a healthy Woodhead.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Jesse James 90% / Vance McDonald 30%
James was the 2nd highest targeted (8) Steelers pass catcher on Sunday behind Antonio Brown. This may be a time to sell high. McDonald was brought in recently and may not know the offense well enough to contribute yet. Also, I expect better things from Martavis Bryant.

If you drafted any of these players, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE? Run for the hills and don’t look back.

I don’t personally view either of these players (or Chris Johnson) as great values in the wake of David Johnson‘s injury. The situation is not good and what made David Johnson great is David Johnson.

It is hard to draw much from this situation. The game was sloppy for the Seahawks and Thomas Rawls did not play. Lacy’s lack of Snaps is disturbing, but we should know more once Rawls is back in the fold.

Hard luck here for Robinson owners. Both Lee and Hurns should represent good value moving forward. The best speculative add is Dede Westbrook who is currently on the IR. If he is designated to return, he could be a value for the back half of the season.

These snaps are misleading as Agholor was targeted more than Jeffery and Smith (8:7:3). I still like the potential that all 3 of these players possess.

Alvin Kamara 50% / Mark Ingram 42% / Adrian Peterson 15%
The Peterson signing never made sense to me. He will get in the way of Ingram reaching RB1 status, but shouldn’t make much of a dent himself. Kamara is as exciting as many of us thought he would be and his role should remain defined all year.

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