Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)

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Last week’s article highlighted the top options while hitting 50 percent of the picks. It was by far the lowest scoring output of the top-12 QB for the 2020 season.

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Patrick Mahomes* 36.64
2 Russell Wilson* 28.74
3 Aaron Rodgers* 22.54
4 Matthew Stafford 22.44
5 Philip Rivers 22.28
6 Justin Herbert 21.22
7 Drew Lock 19.82
8 Drew Brees 19.6
9 Tom Brady* 19.06
10 Joe Burrow* 18.86
11 Cam Newton 18.36
12 Matt Ryan* 17.94

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 9.

Four-Sures

Patrick Mahomes vs. CAR
Do I really need to convince you? The Chiefs have the highest team implied total (31.5) of the week and Mahomes could score all those points by halftime. It’s almost harder to figure out the right line for betting: 3.5 TDs?

Russell Wilson @ BUF
Keep this thing going… Wilson is tied with Justin Herbert with nine passing TDs of over 20+ yards while also averaging 37.1 rushing yards per game, the highest of his career. The Bills defense shouldn’t be intimidating ranking 22nd in pass DVOA including 29th against fantasy TEs. Seahawks games are averaging 62.7 total points per game so yea.. I’ll take the over.

Kyler Murray vs MIA
You can count on Kyler who is the only QB in the top-12 every. single. week. Murray is averaging 62.4 rushing yards per game. That is insane when you couple it with his solid 5.1 percent TD rate. Coming off the bye, he’s a sure thing.

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Josh Allen vs. SEA
I love, love, love Josh Allen this week. He should bounce-back after ending up outside the top-15 four weeks in a row.  Seattle games combined for 2nd most total plays per game and in order to keep pace with Russell Wilson, we’ll need to see some rushing upside. The Seahawks ranks 31st in pass DVOA and allowing 27.4 rushing yards per game to QBs.

Com-Four-table

Deshaun Watson @ JAX
Watson is on a roll since Bill O’Brien left town. He’s been the QB6, QB1, and QB9 including 30.9 fantasy points against these Jaguars in Week 5. The Jaguars rank dead last against pass DVOA and allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game. The Jags are starting a rookie QB so look for the Texans to cover even on the road.

Getty Images / Bob Levey

Justin Herbert vs LV
The rookie is on a roll with 3+ TDs in four straight games. Charger games have averaged 64 total points over Justin Herbert’s in those four starts which is a great sign for a game currently at 53.5. The Raiders rank dead last in QB hit rate, 29th in sack rate, and 27th in pass DVOA. That adds up to a slam dunk matchup for a guy who is QB2 in points per game since starting.

Aaron Rodgers @ SF
Rodgers has been as efficient as ever with a TD:INT ratio of 20:2. Although this game has been affected by COVID-19, Davante Adams is still playing. You know what that means. These two have hooked up for seven TDs in just five games played.  With a 27.8 team implied total, Rodgers will likely be responsible for those points especially starting Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams at RB.

Tom Brady vs NO
Brady shook off some early season rust and now looks like an every-week QB1 candidate. The Buccaneers are tied for the 4th highest team implied total (28.3) of the week. The Saints defense isn’t a lockdown unit by any means ranking 7th worst against fantasy QBs and the second most passing TDs (19) in the NFL. With Antonio Brown in the mix, expect Bruce Arians and company to showcase their new weapon and throttle the Saints.

Four In the Door

Ben Roethlisberger @ DAL
Here’s the recipe for success: play the Cowboys. Their defense is a siv ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and a TD:INT ratio of 17:3 on the year. Big Ben has an arsenal of wideouts available to easily get to a 250+/2-TD threshold we look for searching for weekly QB1s. The Steelers are 7.5 road favorites for a reason. They should steamroll the Cowboys.

Matt Ryan vs. DEN
The Falcons QB could be without Calvin Ridley this week that might make you pause. Last year Ryan was without his young standout receiver for Weeks 15-17 and he finished as a QB1 in two of those three games. He has Julio Jones which is more than enough. Ryan is averaging 342 passing yards per game when Julio finishes a game in 2020. The Broncos have also allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the league-leader in passing yards should take advantage at home as a 4.5-point favorite. 

Derek Carr @ LAC
He was the play I touted last week before the weather ruined our plans. Carr has been way better than you realize averaging 23 fantasy points per game if you take out last week’s game. He has the highest QB Rating (139.6) on “deep attempts” in the NFL but only attempting them on 8.5% of his throws, 27th in the league. With better weather in Los Angeles, he’s set up to be a great play. Over the last five weeks, the Chargers have given up most fantasy points per game to the QB position. Carr is Mike’s Start of the Week.

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Drew Lock @ ATL
I tried to walk away from Lock this week but the matchup is too enticing. He’s a deeper play so use some caution. The Falcons rank 29th in pass DVOA and allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs, 5th most to WRs, and the most to opposing TEs. Yikes!

Getty Images / Dustin Bradford

Four-Get-About-It

Lamar Jackson @ IND
It pains me to banish the league MVP to this section but he’s been #nothelpful for fantasy. The Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season including ranking 4th in pass DVOA and #1 against TEs. (Sorry Mark Andrews) His floor is obviously high with his ability on the ground but I think this is the week you have to pivot. This game also could be ridiculously slow with Indianapolis ranking 23rd in pace & Baltimore 22nd. Drafting Lamar probably makes you feel locked in but I’m giving you the courage to place hiim on the bench.

Ryan Tannehill vs CHI
Tannehill faces a tough matchup against a Bears team that has given up ONE top-12 performance to a QB over their last 30 games! That one QB was Patrick Mahomes. Chicago is allowing just 15.6 fantasy points per game to QBs (5th best) and rank 5th in pass DVOA.

Teddy Bridgewater @ KC
Teddy B let me down last week although he took a vicious hit in the 3rd quarter which stunted his fantasy production. His floor is dangerously low and his pace (25th in neutral situations) doesn’t help. The Kansas City defense has allowed nine passing TDs while matching it with nine INTs.

Drew Brees @ TB
I can’t get behind the Hall of Famer this week especially against the Bucs. They rank #1 in defensive DVOA, pass DVOA, and the 5th fewest (19.3) fantasy points per game. Why go there when there are better streaming options?


Last Week: 6/12

2020 Hit Rate: 54 %

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