Predicting the Top-12 QBs for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)

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Last week’s article had Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert on the cover and he went absolutely bananas. He leads the league in almost every 3rd down conversion metric and averaging more than 25 fantasy points per contest. We just missed out on a 50% week with Teddy Bridgewater finished 0.1 points behind the top-12.

Weekly Rank QB Fantasy Points
1 Justin Herbert* 38.48
2 Kyler Murray* 37.1
3 Tom Brady 36.86
4 Joe Burrow 33.64
5 Russell Wilson* 29.92
6 Baker Mayfield 29.78
7 Carson Wentz 27.76
8 Aaron Rodgers* 27.32
9 Deshaun Watson* 24.16
10 Drew Brees 23.68
11 Daniel Jones 20.68
12 Derek Carr 19.26

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 8.

Four-Sures

Russell Wilson vs SF
You don’t bench THE QB1 averaging 29.8 fantasy points per game with the highest pass success rate in the league. Duh.

Patrick Mahomes vs NYJ
Wowzers. The Chiefs are 19.5-point home favorites with a ridiculous 34.3-point team implied total, the highest of the season. When you can project five TDs already in the game script with the best QB on the planet, this is going to be a steamroll.

Aaron Rodgers vs MIN
Rodgers is ranked as the QB1 this week in the Footballers Consensus Ranks for Week 8. He torched these Vikings in Week 1 on the road for 364 & four TDs. The Vikings also have allowed the 3rd most 20+ yard completions in the league, which bodes well for a QB throwing the 2nd highest percentage of “deep attempts” in the league.

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Tom Brady @ NYG
I’m shocked how well Brady has been playing recently even with a pass-catching group that has been hobbled. Next week he’ll get Antonio Brown and even with Chris Godwin declared out early with a broken finger, I like him on Monday Night Football against the hapless Giants. They’ve allowed the 6th most passing yards and rank 27th in pass DVOA. The Bucs are also protecting TB12 allowing the lowest sack rate (2.85%) in the league. The G.O.A.T. is a top-5 guy this week especially after lighting the world on fire last week for five TDs.

Getty Images / Matthew Stockman

Com-Four-table

Lamar Jackson vs. PIT
This is such a tough call. On one hand, he has among the highest floors of any QB given the fact he can rush for 50+ yards every single game. While we know how tough playing Pittsburgh is, Jackson is averaging just 189 passing yards per game. Last season he threw three INTs in a game versus Pittsburgh and still finished as the QB17 against the Steelers. You might have to grit your teeth but I wouldn’t be benching someone with his game-breaking ability.

Ryan Tannehill @ CIN
Joe Burrow vs TEN
Both of these QBs are in play. The Bengals defense just gave up big games to Philip Rivers and Baker Mayfield. Those two “stalwarts” combined to complete 72 percent of their passes for 668 yards (9.4 YPA) and 8:1 TD-to-INT. Tannehill is Jason’s Start of the Week. On the other side of the ball, Burrow just put up 34+ fantasy points against the Browns and leads the league in pass attempts. The Titans have an anemic pass rush ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate, given up the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and the most wide receiver fantasy points over the last month. The Bengals can definitely hang with the Titans especially at home.

Carson Wentz vs. DAL
It’s been U-G-L-Y this year for the Eagles but Wentz has four top-12 performances in last five weeks. His only one he didn’t crack the QB1 pantheon he was the QB14 against the Steelers. We know how much of a joke Dallas has been on defense allowing the most points in the league ranking 23rd against opposing fantasy QBs. If Jalen Reagor comes back and Miles Sanders is available, Wentz can be a top-5 guy this week. He is Andy’s Start of the Week.

Four-in-the-Door

Matt Ryan @ CAR
If Julio Jones plays on Thursday night, Ryan is a surefire QB1 start for me. In games where Julio has finished in 2020, Ryan is averaging 358 passing yards, a 71% completion rate, and has 11 TDs in four games. The Panthers have been surprisingly good against the pass allowing just one passer over 300 yards on the season. They can’t rush the passer ranking dead last in sack rate and the 2nd highest 3rd down success rate. Even on the road on Thursday night, I like Ryan a lot this week.

Derek Carr @ CLV
I’m not gonna lie… I’m pretty hyped up about Derek Carr‘s Week 8 prospects. I talked all about him on this week’s DFS Podcast with Matthew Betz coming out Friday morning. Carr has top-14 fantasy finishes in four of his last five starts and the Browns secondary is atrocious this year. Cleveland ranks 28th against fantasy QBs allowing the 4th most TD passes and the fifth-most completions of 20+ yards. Send in the Carrrr.

Jimmy Garoppolo @ SEA
The Handsome One is set up for success this week. Seattle is arguably the best matchup for opposing pass offenses ranking dead last against fantasy QBs AND WRs. Seattle also is allowing the most opponent plays per game (76), the 2nd most passing yards, and the 4th most plays of 20+ yards. He’s a cheap DFS play and a great streamer for redraft leagues. Jimmy G is Mike’s Start of the Week.

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Nick Foles vs. NO
This is a dart throw and not someone I recommend over safer options. Remember this is a predictions article so close your eyes. The Bears have the highest percentage of team TDs via the pass (85.7%) in the league. In other words, David Montgomery and company aren’t getting it done on the ground. Get this: the Saints defense is allowing the highest percentage of opponent TDs via the pass (77.3%) in the league. Marshon Lattimore is a name only and the rest of the secondary is beatable. If Allen Robinson returns from concussion protocol, I like Foles to take it to a top-12 level.

Four-Get-About-It

Josh Allen vs NE
Listen, I’m starting him in my home league. I’m just lowering my expectations this week. In three career games versus New England, Allen has a 48% completion rate, five INTs, and less than 220 pass yards in each game. That’s not going to cut it. This game has the lowest total of the week (42.5) so I’m not super thrilled to leave him in my starting lineup.

Justin Herbert @ DEN
How dare you Kyle?!? I’m not trying to be a buzzkill but Herbert can’t keep this up. The matchup this week isn’t too inviting as the Broncos allow just 230 passing yards per game and rank 9th in pass DVOA. Denver also knows how to get after the QB ranking 8th in adjusted sack rate. The Chargers offensive line is a patchwork crew so I expect Herbert to take some rookie lumps in this one.

Ben Roethlisberger @ BAL
He’s been fine in redraft leagues but looks like an obvious sit this week. Baltimore ranks 7th in pass DVOA, allowing the 5th fewest big plays, and only 1.53 points per drive, 5th best in the NFL. It’s an AFC North defensive battle that will likely be won with defense and not Big Ben’s arms. Look elsewhere for streaming options.

Jared Goff @ MIA
Goff on the road is usually not a formula for success. The Rams are bent on running the ball with the 3rd highest rush rate in the league against a Dolphins team ranking dead last in run DVOA. We need to take notice that this Miami secondary only recently got healthy. Bryon Jones and Xavien Howard form an elite duo that is allowing only 16 fantasy points per game to QBs, 5th best in the NFL. Look to other streamers this week.


Last Week: 5/12

2020 Hit Rate: 54%

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