NFC South Fantasy Football Breakdown Recap
NFL training camps are now open and The Fantasy Footballers are continuing their Divisional breakdowns. Make sure to check out the other divisional breakdowns from previous shows if you haven’t already. Today, we’ll be putting the capstone on this eight-part series with Andy, Mike, and Jason’s breakdown of the NFC South.
Each projected starter includes their average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator in .5 PPR leagues.
New Orleans Saints
2018 Offensive Stats
Rush YPG: 126.6 (6th)
Pass YPG: 252.6 (12th)
Pts/G: 31.5 (3rd)
14.7% vacated targets
2018 Defensive Stats
DEF Rush YPG: 80.2 (2nd)
DEF Pass YPG 268.9 (29th)
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
QB: Drew Brees (7.12)
RB: Alvin Kamara (1.03), Latavius Murray (7.06)
WR: Michael Thomas (1.10), Tre’Quan Smith (12.08), Ted Ginn Jr. (NA)
TE: Jared Cook (7.11)
Additions:
RB Latavius Murray
TE Jared Cook
Subtractions:
RB Mark Ingram
C Max Under (Retired)
Offseason Summary:
This team under Sean Payton has been dominant on the ground and Drew Brees turned in the best completion percentage season of all-time. While Murray is clearly replacing Mark Ingram, he won’t see near the work the former saw especially in the red-zone where Ingram had 11 goal-line carries in 2018. Michael Thomas just became the highest-paid WR in the game but it seems the Ballers would rather pass on the other pass-catching catching options preferring to combine Tre’Quan Smith and Ted Ginn into one person. Brees is not an every-week fantasy starter despite having the potential for huge weeks. Jared Cook could be 3rd in the New Orleans pecking order as he ranked 3rd among TEs in 20+ yard plays in 2018.
Atlanta Falcons
2018 Offensive Stats
Rush YPG: 98.3 (27th)
Pass YPG: 290.8 (4th)
Pts/G: 25.9 (10th)
10.9% vacated targets
2018 Defensive Stats
DEF Rush YPG: 124.9 (25th)
DEF Pass YPG 259.6 (27th)
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
QB: Matt Ryan (7.03)
RB: Devonta Freeman (3.06), Ito Smith (11.05)
WR: Julio Jones (1.09), Calvin Ridley (5.06), Mohamed Sanu (NA)
TE: Austin Hooper (12.08)
Rookie Additions:
OG Chris Lindstrom (1st Round)
OT Kaleb KcGary (1st Round)
Subtractions:
Offseason Summary:
The Falcons have a weird scheduling quirk as they don’t play in the NFC South until Week 10 and then FIVE in a row until Week 14. This offense should return to its high-powered yet balanced ways with Dirk Koetter coming back in the fold as offensive coordinator. Matt Ryan is an upper-echelon QB although he could regress in the TD category especially due to an uncharacteristic three rushing TDs. Devonta Freeman could be a steal in the middle of the 3rd round and someone Mike is targeting frequently in drafts. On the other hand, his return from a major injury is a concern for Jason. Calvin Ridley had ten TDs as a rookie but his draft cost (5.06) was a bit too rich for the Ballers’ blood. Austin Hooper was a sham as TE6 last year posting the lowest total for that fantasy finish over the last 15 years. Do not draft him.
Carolina Panthers
2018 Offensive Stats
Rush YPG: 133.5 (4th)
Pass YPG: 239.8 (16th)
Pts/G: 23.5 (T-14th)
16.5% vacated targets
2018 Defensive Stats
DEF Rush YPG: 112.8 (12th)
DEF Pass YPG 240.4 (18th)
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
QB: Cam Newton (9.04)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (1.03)
WR: D.J. Moore (5.11), Curtis Samuel (10.02)
TE: Greg Olsen (13.08)
Key Additions:
WR Chris Hogan
Subtractions:
WR Devin Funchess
C Ryan Kalil (retired)
Offseason Summary:
Mr. Booty Scootin Cam Newton right now is being drafted at the end of the ninth round yet could easily finish as a top-3 QB. He’s done it multiple times and if you think he is over his shoulder problems, he is definitely worth drafting. There was debate over whether D.J. Moore can be relied upon as your fantasy team’s WR2. Jason has him ranked at WR17 but Mike is on the opposite end of the spectrum at WR31. The recently praised Curtis Samuel was talked up due to his increasing usage at the end of the season, his lower draft cost, and the unbelievably green Reception Perception chart found in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Greg Olsen aka Mr. Bag of Bones is worth a shot as a late veteran TE but he no longer possesses much upside. Also, Christian McCaffrey is good. Draft him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2018 Offensive Stats
Rush YPG: 95.2 (29th)
Pass YPG: 320.3 (1st)
Pts/G: 24.8 (12th)
38% vacated targets (5th most)
2018 Defensive Stats
DEF Rush YPG: 123.9 (24th)
DEF Pass YPG 259.4 (26th)
Projected Week 1 Starters (ADP)
QB: Jameis Winston (10.04)
RB: Ronald Jones II (8.09), Peyton Barber (10.08)
WR: Mike Evans (2.10), Chris Godwin (5.01)
TE: O.J. Howard (5.07)
Additions:
HC Bruce Arians
RB Andre Ellington
WR Breshad Perriman
Subtractions
WR Adam Humphries
WR DeSean Jackson
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Offseason Summary:
Head coach Bruce Arians and his fast-paced style will work well with what is in Tampa Bay. This offense will throw the ball and force down-field looks for Jameis Winston. Andy discussed the very real range of outcomes for Winston week-to-week: the QB1 or 4-INTs and he’s benched. This is the best weaponry he’s ever had especially now that O.J. Howard will be healthy. The Chris Godwin hype train continues as his ADP now sits at the beginning of the 5th round. Arians has made it clear he doesn’t really care too much for RBs as Ronald Jones II and Andre Ellington are competing for snaps. Peyton Barber is the incumbent starter and Mike is hoping he’ll see more passing down work making him a viable starting RB to take in the later rounds.