Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy TEs in 2020
This week, The Fantasy Footballers came to the end of their 2020 TRUTH series with just about the most hated position in fantasy football, the tight ends. At some point during this season, just about every negative cliche was used to describe the fantasy TE landscape, so I won’t pile on. However bad they look, we all must start one, even if only three feel worthy, and the guys are here to help you make that choice easier. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about.
If you want more TE goodness, Peter Chung dug in the dirt so you don’t have to and found 25 great stats about TEs in 2020.
Quick Explanation
The Fantasy Footballers base TE fantasy points on .5 PPR Scoring. Consistency scores are based on a player’s Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:
Great Games are more than 15 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 10 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
1. Travis Kelce (ADP: TE1 / 2.08) – Consistency Rank: 1
1st half of season consistency rank: 1 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 1
15 games — 145 targets for 105/1416/11
Great 67% | Good 87% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -2 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.53 fantasy points on average at Home
What really needs to be said about King Kelce? This is his 5th straight season as the TE1 and, statistically, this is the 2nd best season by a fantasy TE ever. He is the best pass-catching TE in the best possible system for a pass-catching TE. He is worth a 1st Round pick at this point and should be ready to do it all over again in 2021. It won’t last forever, but he’s given no indication of slowing anytime soon.
2. Darren Waller (ADP: TE5 / 5.12) – Consistency Rank: 2
1st half of season consistency rank: 3 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 3
16 games — 145 targets for 107/1196/9
Great 31% | Good 69% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +2.29 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.2 fantasy points on average at Home
I AM THE WALLER-US! While the Raiders’ offense was not very consistent, Waller was every bit as consistent as you could hope for a fantasy TE. The Raiders retooled their WR corps this offseason and volume was a real concern heading into the season but he produced at a high level for the 2nd straight year. The rookie WRs disappointed and Waller was the #1 receiver again, plus his positive regression in TDs helped his campaign along. It will be interesting to see if the Raiders add any WRs again but Waller is feeling safe in the conversation for TE2.
3. Robert Tonyan (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 6
1st half of season consistency rank: 7 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 8
16 games — 59 targets for 52/586/11
Great 13% | Good 44% | Bust 38%
Defenses: -1.5 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.69 fantasy points on average at Home
Tonyan is a stark contrast to Kelce and Waller. While the TE1 and TE2 had over 140 targets, Tonyan hits TE3 on just 59 targets. He was carried by 11 TDs and feels the most like a trap heading into 2021. You have to expect TD regression from Aaron Rodgers and, in turn, regression from Tonyan. He is likely to be drafted far too high and will be risky next season.
4. TJ Hockenson (ADP: TE14 / 12.10) – Consistency Rank: 8
1st half of season consistency rank: 4 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 9
16 games — 101 targets for 67/723/6
Great 0% | Good 44% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +0.06 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.65 fantasy points on average at Home
Hockenson’s 2020 almost highlights the issue with fantasy TEs in general. He was the TE4 on the back of seven Good games, no Great games, and four Bust games. He didn’t hurt your team for the most part but he didn’t win you many games. He will be interesting in 2021 because the Lions are basically starting over. Matt Stafford is gone, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones could both be gone, and they have a new coach. His ADP could make him a sneaky value next season if he is the #1 target in this new offense.
5. Mark Andrews (ADP: TE3 / 4.06) – Consistency Rank: 3
1st half of season consistency rank: 8 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 4
14 games — 88 targets for 58/701/7
Great 29% | Good 50% | Bust 43%
Defenses: -3.15 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.73 fantasy points on average at Home
It was a rocky season for the Baltimore offense in general to start the season and Andrews suffered the consequences. The lack of overall passing attempts hurt the prospects of Andrews seeing more targets, which was a hope when Hayden Hurst left for Atlanta. Due to his ADP, even finishing as the TE5 felt like a disappointment for managers who drafted Andrews. This type of “burn” could see his ADP drop and flip the script, turning Andrews into a value in 2021. If the Ravens sign a big-time WR, that could push his ADP even further without taking much from his production.
6. Logan Thomas (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 9
1st half of season consistency rank: 9 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 7
16 games — 110 targets for 72/670/6
Great 13% | Good 44% | Bust 38%
Defenses: -2.16 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.34 fantasy points on average at Home
Thomas was a hidden gem. He did not register an ADP and turned out to be a very consistent player for fantasy managers, He got much better when Alex Smith took over, he was the #5 in Consistency with Smith and benefitted from basically being the #2 receiver on this Washington team.
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
7. Mike Gesicki (ADP: TE15 / 13.03) – Consistency Rank: 14
1st half of season consistency rank: 16 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 12
15 games — 85 targets for 53/703/6
Great 20% | Good 33% | Bust 47%
Defenses: +2.75 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.58 fantasy points on average at Home
Gesicki had a decent year but overall, it kind of felt like a disappointment compared to the breakout season most thought he would have. He was tied for the most endzone targets among TEs, which could have led to a Robert Tonyan-like season, but the QB play wasn’t there to hit on those targets.
8. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: TE6 / 6.09) – Consistency Rank: 13
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 14
16 games — 77 targets for 45/623/7
Great 13% | Good 38% | Bust 56%
Defenses: -3.48 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -3.83 fantasy points on average at Home
Gronk really got going after O.J. Howard, who had a Consistency Rank of #5 in 4 games, tore his Achilles. While the injury helped propel him, it was not the only reason Gronk broke out late. He was returning from a year away and there was no preseason to knock the rust off. He was a true “deep-ball” threat for this offense and it is unlikely he disappears next season, even if Howard comes back.
9. Hayden Hurst (ADP: TE8 / 7.07) – Consistency Rank: 16
1st half of season consistency rank: 24 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13
16 games — 88 targets for 56/571/6
Great 6% | Good 31% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -3.91 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.26 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show.
10. Jonnu Smith (ADP: TE16 / 13.05) – Consistency Rank: 11
1st half of season consistency rank: 5 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 17
15 games — 65 targets for 41/448/8 — 2/4/1 rushing
Great 13% | Good 40% | Bust 40%
Defenses: +3.1 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.04 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show but is a free-agent in 2021.
11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 12
1st half of season consistency rank: 12 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 14
16 games — 76 targets for 50/456/8
Great 13% | Good 38% | Bust 63%
Defenses: -4.02 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -6.72 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show.
12. Noah Fant (ADP: TE12 / 10.06) – Consistency Rank: 22
1st half of season consistency rank: 10 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 29
15 games — 93 targets for 62/673/3
Great 20% | Good 20% | Bust 47%
Defenses: +1.31 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.73 fantasy points on average at Home
Fant feels like a breakout candidate for 2021. He dealt with injuries in 2020 but played through them, which is nice, knowing that your TE won’t miss games. He has a great athletic profile but the WRs for Denver should improve, including the return of Courtland Sutton, and it is really hard to trust Drew Lock.
13. Hunter Henry (ADP: TE10 /10.03) – Consistency Rank: 10
1st half of season consistency rank: 21 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 5
14 games — 93 targets for 60/613/4
Great 7% | Good 43% | Bust 36%
Defenses: +.03 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.53 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show but is a free-agent in 2021.
14. Dalton Schultz (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 19
1st half of season consistency rank: 19 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 22
16 games — 89 targets for 63/615/4
Great 13% | Good 25% | Bust 63%
Defenses: -3.65 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.57 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Hardly discussed on the show…because he will be immediately replaced by a returning Blake Jarwin in 2021.
15. Eric Ebron (ADP: TE21) – Consistency Rank: 15
1st half of season consistency rank: 20 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 11
15 games — 91 targets for 56/558/5
Great 0% | Good 33% | Bust 47%
Defenses: +2.97 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.98 fantasy points on average at Home
Ebron improved over the 2nd half of the season and it is likely that Juju Smith-Schuster will be gone for Pittsburgh but it still feels hard to trust Ebron as an every-week start in fantasy.
16. Evan Engram (ADP: TE7 /7.03) – Consistency Rank: 24
1st half of season consistency rank: 39 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 18
16 games — 109 targets for 63/654/1 — 6/26/1 rushing
Great 0% | Good 19% | Bust 56%
Defenses: -0.25 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -5.51 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show.
17. Jared Cook (ADP: TE11 / 10.03) – Consistency Rank: 7
1st half of season consistency rank: 2 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 21
15 games — 60 targets for 37/504/7
Great 0% | Good 47% | Bust 40%
Defenses: -1.09 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.13 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show.
18. Tyler Higbee (ADP: TE9 / 7.11) – Consistency Rank: 25
1st half of season consistency rank: 33 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 24
15 games — 60 targets for 44/521/5
Great 7% | Good 20% | Bust 60%
Defenses: -3.27 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.93 fantasy points on average at Home
Higbee’s viability was a huge debate heading into 2020 and that debate will rage on in 2021. Gerald Everett is a free-agent and now Matt Stafford is the QB. If Higbee is alone as the TE1 for the Rams in 2021, he could be an interesting fantasy TE.
John McCoy/Getty Images
19. George Kittle (ADP: TE2 / 3.01) – Consistency Rank: 4
1st half of season consistency rank: 10 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 2
8 games — 63 targets for 48/634/2 — 2/17/0 rushing
Great 25% | Good 50% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +0.53 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.37 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed much on the show but it was acknowledged that he is still likely the TE2 over Waller but behind Kelce.
20. Dallas Goedert (ADP: TE19) – Consistency Rank: 17
1st half of season consistency rank: 23 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 20
11 games — 65 targets for 46/524/3
Great 27% | Good 27% | Bust 64%
Defenses: +1.45 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -4.02 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not really discussed on the show but they feel he will be a good play if Ertz is out of the picture.
21. Austin Hooper (ADP: TE13) – Consistency Rank: 18
1st half of season consistency rank: 20 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10
13 games — 70 targets for 46/435/4
Great 0% | Good 31% | Bust 46%
Defenses: -0.23 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.56 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not discussed on the show.
32. Zach Ertz (ADP: TE4 / 5.06) – Consistency Rank: 36
1st half of season consistency rank: 27 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 56
11 targets for 72 targets for 36/335/1
Great 0% | Good 9% | Bust 73%
Defenses: -2.74 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.13 fantasy points on average at Home
Note: Not really discussed on the show but he was described as D-U-N.