This week the 2019 Truth series shifts to arguably the most misunderstood position in fantasy football, QBs. In their latest episode, The Ballers dove into QB scoring and consistency and found that yet again it varied wildly when compared to ADP. This may be one of the most valuable episodes of the offseason, so make sure to find the time to give it a full watch or listen at some point.
The Fantasy Footballers base all scores on “Ballers Preferred Scoring”, which utilizes 4 points per passing TD. A Great game could win you a week while a Bust game could’ve lost you a week. They use this data to develop a Consistency Score. Consistency means less risk. You want consistent players. Here’s the breakdown:
Great Games are more than 25 points
Good Games are more than 17 points
Bust Games are fewer than 15 points
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
1. Lamar Jackson (415.7 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #1
15 games – 265/401 for 3127/36/6 passing – 176/1206/7 rushing – 2 fumbles lost
Great 60% | Good 93% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -5.51 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +3.34 at home
Lamar Jackson topping the consistency chart comes as a surprise to nobody. Absolutely nobody. His 27.7 fantasy points per game were the most ever, he shattered the QB rushing record, and he logged an impressive 9% TD pass rate. The only question at this point is whether or not he’ll be immune to the dreaded regression that so few have been able to fend off after a record-setting season.
2. Dak Prescott (337.8 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #3
16 games – 388/596 for 4902/30/11 passing – 52/277/3 rushing – 2 fumbles lost
Great 31% | Good 81% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -9.82 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +8.6 at home
Unlike Jackson, Dak Prescott probably doesn’t immediately come to mind when trying to list the top fantasy QBs of 2019. He’s never finished outside of the top-12 fantasy QBs in a season, but he appears to have leveled up in his fourth year under center in Dallas. As The Ballers discussed on the show, it wouldn’t be shocking if his ADP leading up to the 2020 season makes him a late-round quarterback option yet again.
3. Russell Wilson (328.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #13
16 games – 341/516 for 4110/31/5 passing – 75/342/3 rushing – 2 fumbles lost
Great 25% | Good 44% | Bust 31%
Defenses: +8.32 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +6.62 at home
The TRUTH episodes exist to expose fantasy seasons like Russell Wilson’s. Even though he finished as a top-3 overall fantasy QB, you definitely weren’t happy you owned him at the end of the season. He had some huge week-winning fantasy performances, but they were sporadic and primarily came early in the season. It isn’t for lack of talent, but Wilson is simply not in an offensive system that lends itself to consistent fantasy output from the quarterback.
4. Deshaun Watson (320.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #7
15 games – 333/495 for 3852/26/12 passing – 82/413/7 rushing – 1 receiving TD – 2 fumbles lost
Great 47% | Good 60% | Bust 27%
Defenses: -8.94 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +4.95 at home
Watson had the highest ADP of all the QBs covered in the episode but it’s debatable whether or not those who drafted him so high were pleased with the outcome in 2019. He finished the fantasy season on a sour note, busting in what looked on paper to be an ideal matchup against the Buccaneers during fantasy championships in Week 16.
5. Jameis Winston (305.4 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #14
16 games – 380/626 for 5109/33/30 passing – 59/250/1 rushing – 5 fumbles lost
Great 25% | Good 56% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -1.51 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -5.07 at home
Jameis Winston certainly had a memorable season in 2019. He became just the eighth quarterback ever to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season while also setting the NFL record for most pick-sixes thrown with seven. He also became the first quarterback to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 picks in a single season. The picks didn’t kill his fantasy production as long as the touchdowns accompanied them, but he tanked in the five games that saw his picks outnumber his touchdowns.
6. Josh Allen (288.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank #4
16 games – 271/461 for 3089/20/9 passing – 109/510/9 rushing – 4 fumbles lost
Great 13% | Good 73% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -8.9 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -9.5 at home
Josh Stallion rarely let his fantasy owners down in 2019, busting just twice. The only problem was that he also only broke the great game threshold twice. He had more rushing touchdowns than any other QB in 2019 (Yes, even more than Lamar Jackson), but barely cracked 3,000 yards and 20 TDs through the air. Though his rushing touchdowns seem bound to regress, he still has plenty of room to improve in the passing game, especially if Buffalo uses this offseason to improve the pass-catchers he’ll be throwing to in 2020.