Fantasy Footballers Podcast Recap: The TRUTH about Second Tier WRs in 2019
The Fantasy Footballers TRUTH series digs into the real vs perceived value certain players. Using their consistency metric, they uncover guys that were buoyed by a few great games instead of giving fantasy owners value game in and game out. In episode 851, they covered 2nd tier WRs from 2019. These TRUTH episodes are here to help you separate your feelings, and possible recency bias, from what really happened over the entire 2019 season. Deciding whether or not you can trust a WR2 could be the difference in whether or not you bring in that #FootClanTitle in 2020.
Be sure to check out part 1 of the WR TRUTH series, where the top-8 WRs are covered.
Quick Explanation
The Fantasy Footballers base all scores on 0.5 PPR scoring. They consider Great games to be those that average out to a weekly top-5 score, a Good game means they fell within the top-24 on average, and a Bust game means it would miss the top-50 on average. A Great game could win you a week while a Bust game could’ve lost you a week.
They use this data to develop a Consistency Score. Consistency means less risk. You want consistent players.
Great Games are more than 22 points (top 5 on average)
Good Games are more than 10 points (top 24 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points (outside top 50 on average)
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
Editor’s Note: If you want more great WR info, check out Aaron Larson‘s article, 25 WR stats from 2019.
9. Amari Cooper (207 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #20
16 games — 79/1189/8 on 119 targets — 1/6/0 rushing
Great 19% | Good 56% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -6.11 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +10.00 points at Home
Mr. Cooper kept things interesting this year. His splits were outrageous. He killed it at home. He destroyed bad defenses. You could almost predict when he was going to have a good game. But that does not make him consistent. So. Many. Bust. Games. Through Week 10, he was the WR3 and only had one Bust game, then he got hurt and things fell apart. The first question of this offseason for Cooper will be “Does he stay with the Cowboys?” If he does, you can feel better about him but he will remain hard to trust in 2020.
10. Julian Edelman (206.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #8
Great 19% | Good 56% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -0.20 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.57 points at Home
A good season overall for Edelman, but he killed you in the fantasy playoffs. If not for Weeks 15-17, he would have been the #2 most consistent WR. If he can stay healthy, Edelman was a guy you wanted starting for your fantasy team. As he gets older and with the possible loss of Tom Brady, there is no way to know what Edleman will show up next year. His ADP will likely be outside of the top-20, so if Brady is back, Edleman could be a value in 2020.
11. Allen Robinson (205.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #17
16 games — 98/1147/7 on 154 targets — 1/2/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 44% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -4.43 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.91 points at Home
Robinson had the 3rd most targets of all WRs…unfortunately, they came from Mitch Trubisky. If Robinson had a QB, he is likely a top-5 WR. Instead, he is the WR11 and there is no light at the end of this tunnel. The big question heading into 2020 will be whether or not he continues to see this type of target volume?
12. Mike Evans (199.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #12
13 games — 67/1157/8 on 118 targets
Great 23% | Good 46% | Bust 15%
Defenses: -6.39 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.13 points on the Road
Evans and Godwin fought all season to prove who was the WR1 for Tampa Bay. Early on, Evans owners were in full panic mode but things turned around. Evans had a lot of mediocre games and even had a goose egg, but his Great games helped and he had a lot of Good games too. Bruce Arians’ system is WR-friendly so he still looking good for 2020 but it seems that Godwin is the new fantasy WR1 for Tampa Bay.
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
13. Jarvis Landry (195.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #20
16 games — 83/1174/6 on 138 targets — 1/10/0 rushing
Great 19% | Good 38% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -1.42 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.41 points at Home
Landry surprised everyone finishing as the WR13. The beginning of the season was awful but from Week 9 on, he was the WR3. He had as many Busts as Great games and tied Amari Cooper in the Consistency rankings.
14. Tyler Lockett (194.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #22
16 games — 82/1057/8 on 110 targets — 4/-5/0 rushing
Great 19% | Good 50% | Bust 31%
Defenses: +6.81 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.20 points at Home
Lockett was carried by his great 1st half to the season but a Week 10 injury led to a plummet in production. DK Metcalf may take over as the fantasy WR1 in Seattle.
15. A.J. Brown (199.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #30
16 games — 52/1051/8 on 84 targets — 3/60/1 rushing
Great 31% | Good 38% | Bust 38%
Defenses: -10.83 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.67 points on the Road
AJ Brown was the 9th most consistent WR once Ryan Tannehill took over. ADP could make him risky in 2020.
16. D.J. Chark (189.3 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #32
15 games — 73/1008/8 on 118 targets — 2/20/0 rushing — 1 2pt Conv
Great 20% | Good 47% | Bust 40%
Defenses: +5.59 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.86 points on the Road
Chark was the opposite of AJ Brown. He had a great 1st half of the year but fell off in the 2nd half. An injury played into that but there will be a new OC in Jacksonville next year so trusting him Chark will tough.
17. Robert Woods (187.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #13
15 games — 90/1134/2 on 139 targets — 17/115/1 rushing
Great 20% | Good 53% | Bust 20%
Defenses: +0.70 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.39 points at Home
If Robert Woods could’ve found the endzone, we’d be talking about him as top-tier WR. Woods did not score until Week 14. Over the 1st half of the season, he was the WR40. Over the 2nd half, he was the WR6. Overall, Woods is very consistent and is the perfect WR2 in fantasy football.
18. D.J. Moore (187 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #7
15 games — 87/1175/4 on 135 targets — 6/40/0 rushing — 1 fumble lost
Great 7% | Good 67% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -0.73 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.14 points at Home
Moore was very good in 2019. He didn’t have enough Great games to move up the ranks and that is likely due to only scoring four TDs and essentially missing the last two games of the season. He is clearly the #1 in Carolina and the return of Cam should boost him in 2020.
Grant Halverson/Getty Images
19. Courtland Sutton (186.4 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #23
16 games — 72/1112/6 on 125 targets — 3/17/0 rushing — 38 passing yards
Great 13% | Good 38% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -4.31 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.51 points at Home
Not Mentioned on Show
20. John Brown (183.8 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #10
15 games — 72/1060/6 on 115 targets — 2/7/0 rushing — 28-yard passing TD
Great 13% | Good 33% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -0.45 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.6 points on the Road
Brown lived off of mediocre games in 2019. He rarely busted but he also rarely won you a fantasy matchup. He was the WR1 for Buffalo and did what he was supposed to do on a run-first team.
21. Stefon Diggs (180.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #25
15 games — 63/1130/6 on 94 targets — 5/61/0 rushing — 3 fumbles lost
Great 13% | Good 47% | Bust 33%
Defenses: -0.09 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.61 points at Home
Not Mentioned on Show
22. Michael Gallup (179.7 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #18
14 games — 66/1107/6 on 113 targets
Great 14% | Good 50% | Bust 21%
Defenses: -7.10 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.85 points at Home
Hardly mentioned on show but it was noted that he only had seven fewer targets than Amari Cooper while missing two games. Could be a great draft value in 2020.
23. Tyler Boyd (177.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #34
16 games — 90/1046/5 on 147 targets — 4/23/0 rushing — 2 fumbles lost
Great 13% | Good 31% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -3.04 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.08 points at Home
Not Mentioned on Show
24. Davante Adams (171.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #5
12 games — 83/997/5 on 127 targets — 1 2pt conv — 1 fumble lost
Great 17% | Good 67% | Bust 17%
Defenses: -1.91 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.10 points at Home
Davante Adams crushed fantasy owners in 2019. His 1st half crushed your fantasy hopes. His 2nd half showed you what he is capable of and he should still be drafted as a top-5 WR next season. This is why the Consistency Rank is so important. Do not forget about Adams in 2020.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
25. Calvin Ridley (165.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #19
13 games — 63/866/7 on 93 targets — 2/34/0 rushing — 1 2pt conv
Great 15% | Good 62% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -3.36 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.19 points on the Road
Not Mentioned on Show
26. Odell Beckham Jr. (164.3 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #28
16 games — 74/1035/4 on 133 targets — 3/10/0 rushing — 1 fumble lost
Great 6% | Good 31% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -2.87 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.11 points at Home
Hardly mentioned on show but the guys did say that they still trust Beckham more than Landry as the #1 WR for the Browns.
27. Terry McLaurin (162.9 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #24
Great 21% | Good 50% | Bust 36%
Defenses: -10.07 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.73 points on the Road
Not Mentioned on Show
29. Deebo Samuel (160.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #26
15 games — 57/802/3 on 81 targets — 14/159/3 rushing — 1 2pt conv — 1 fumble lost
Great 7% | Good 60% | Bust 40%
Defenses: -3.59 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.18 points on the Road
Deebo was the #4 most consistent WR in the league from Week 8 on. Deebo was targeted in the red zone nine times but only scored one TD…positive regression is coming. Rookies take time to get their footing and Deebo was just amazing to end the year and is a player you want on your fantasy team in 2020.
30. Tyreek Hill (159.3 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #11
12 games — 58/860/7 on 89 targets — 8/23/0 rushing
Great 33% | Good 42% | Bust 17%
Defenses: +9.09 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.81 points at Home
Like Adams, injury has pushed him down the overall ranks but his Consistency Score shows who he really is. Hill should still be considered a top-5 WR next year.
32. D.K. Metcalf (158.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #30
16 games — 58/900/7 on 100 targets — 2/11/0 rushing — 1 2pt conv — 3 fumbles lost
Great 6% | Good 25% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +5.25 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.46 points at Home
Hardly mentioned on show but it was noted that he could take WR1 spot from Lockett next year. The biggest concern is TD regression, especially with Will Dissly coming back.
Comments
We don’t talk about him
Who was WR 28 on the season?