Fantasy Court: The Case Against D’Andre Swift In 2026 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out “The Case FOR D’Andre Swift” for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Southern small-town lawyer accent completely optional. Your Honor, I will not deny that D’Andre Swift had an excellent 2025 season. Who can ignore his career-high in rushing yards and RB15 finish? However, I would like to propose that D’Andre Swift will not repeat his 2025 success and, furthermore, I herein intend to prove Swift is being drafted at his ceiling with the current draft cost of RB23.
Please, members of the court, allow me to explain:
The RB Age Cliff
I would like to present Exhibit A: D’Andre Swift was alive for Y2K. Swift was nearly a year old when the Year 2000 created a worldwide digital panic, and he will be 28 years old in Week 1 of the NFL playoffs. Research on dynasty lifecycles completed by Fantasy Footballers’ own Marvin Elequin shows the most significant year of decline in production for RBs is age 28. Marvin defined “decline” as “the final season of a player’s career or the first season after their breakout in which they experienced a 30% decline in points per game.
As the RB production decline graph shows, Swift is at the most common age for decline. Swift has never been considered a workhorse back, and the past two seasons are the two highest of his career in touches. Swift appeared on the injury report nine weeks in 2025 (“Agggggh, Ma Groin!“). If Swift’s 2025 numbers were decreased by 30% as observed in the study, he would have finished as the RB28, below his current RB23 draft cost.
Swift Has to Share the Ball
While I know the court has corrected me numerous times that trial recess is not like the one in elementary school (and again I do apologize for calling “jackpot” and throwing a football to the jurors), I would like to motion that Swift has to play nice and share with others for the foreseeable future.
Swift has relied on his passing work to boost his fantasy relevance. When Swift arrived in Chicago in 2024, he had career highs in Yards Per Target and Yards Per Catch and was fifth on the team in targets. In 2025, the Bears underwent an offensive overhaul led by Coach Ben Johnson and the additions of Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Kyle Monangai. These changes led to career lows in receptions and receiving yards, with Swift finishing seventh in team targets. It is true that two players ahead of Swift in 2025 targets, DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus, are no longer on the team, but all reports show Rome Odunze, Burden, and Loveland are expected to fill the target vacancy.
Not only did Swift see a decrease in passing work in 2025, but he also saw a decrease in rushing attempts. In 2024, Swift accounted for 58% of all of Chicago’s rushing attempts. The addition of 2025 seventh-round draft pick Kyle Monangai saw Swift’s rushing attempt percentage fall to 44%. While this percentage was still the highest on the team, Monangai was not far behind with 33%. Monangai also started the year with limited usage before settling into a snap rate of about 40%. For the majority of the season, the difference in Chicago’s RB usage was even closer than the season-long totals indicate. While I am sure the elementary teachers among us applaud Swift’s willingness to share, the fantasy owners among us face disappointment.
Red Zone Expectations
TDs were a significant part of Swift’s 2025 fantasy value, but a repeat performance is unlikely. I would like to remind the court that the Bears’ offense has the talent to successfully spread the ball, including inside the 20-yard line. Swift was the lead back for the team, but red zone rushing work was much closer to a 50/50 split with Monangai. While Swift doubled up Monangai in TDs, he only had four more red zone rushing attempts. Furthermore, between 11 yards and 20 yards from the goal line, Monangai had one more rushing attempt than Swift.
You may remember Swift’s fantasy production has been boosted by his passing work. While that may be true, almost all of that production took place between the 20-yard lines. Swift only accounted for one red zone target in all of 2025. That’s right, one.
It is unlikely Swift will reach 10 TDs in 2026. Aside from 2025, the only other time Swift reached that number was his 2020 rookie year. With the Bears facing the NFL’s sixth-hardest schedule (according to Sharp Football Analysis), TDs will be hard-earned. Thankfully, you do not have to take my word for it; Vegas odds have Swift’s over/under lines for season-long TDs set at 6.5.
Closing Statement
And so, Your Honor, with the evidence laid out before you, it is plain to see that Swift will not repeat his 2025 success. Time is working against him, and his RB workload decreased over the past year. The Chicago Bears have a talented receiving squad; players who are just entering their primes but have already contributed to a reduction in Swift’s passing work. While Swift did produce between the 20’s, his red zone rushing work was evenly split, and passing work was near non-existent. Swift is facing a tougher schedule with age already against him, tougher competition for touches, and less red zone work. Swift is at the beginning of a production decline, and the evidence shows he will not repeat his 2025 success or meet draft expectations.
The prosecution rests.