The Fantasy Footballers Podcast began the 2019 TRUTH Series this week. The series kicked off with the top WRs. These shows will get the bottom of the actual value vs the perceived value of a fantasy player. While the #1 WR this year was better than 2018, the rest took a real step back. For those of you that can’t listen to the podcast right this second, keep scrolling, I’ve put it all into article form for you. Though I highly recommend taking the time to listen to all of the Truth episodes at least once this offseason.
The Fantasy Footballers base all scores on 0.5 PPR scoring. They consider Great games to be those that average out to a weekly top-5 score, a Good game means they fell within the top-24 on average, and a Bust game means it would miss the top-50 on average. A Great game could win you a week while a Bust game could’ve lost you a week.
They use this data to develop a Consistency Score. Consistency means less risk. You want consistent players.
Great Games are more than 22 points (top 5 on average)
Good Games are more than 10 points (top 24 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points (outside top 50 on average)
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
1. Michael Thomas (300.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #1
16 games — 149/1725/9 on 185 targets
Great 50% | Good 88% | Bust 6%
Defenses: + 5.56 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.81 points at Home
Michael Thomas was great this year, there isn’t much more that needs to be said. Thomas beat the WR2 by 67 fantasy points. He broke the NFL record for receptions and he caught 96% of the “catchable” targets thrown his way. He would’ve outscored Odell Beckham Jr in just Thomas’ eight home games. If Drew Brees returns, Thomas is the unquestioned WR1 for 2020 fantasy drafts.
2. Chris Godwin (233.1 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #2
14 games — 86/1333/9 on 120 targets — 1/8/0 rushing — 1 2pt conv
Great 36% | Good 64% | Bust 7%
Defenses: +5.03 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.42 points on the Road
Godwin holds a special place for fantasy owners because you didn’t have to blow a high draft pick to get him. The slot WR in Bruce Arians system tends to produce and Godwin kept that tradition alive. He did slow down a little bit towards the end of the year and missed the last two games due to injury. Godwin will and should be drafted as a top-10 WR in 2020…but who will his QB be? Would you draft him over Mike Evans?
3. Julio Jones (224.6 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #3
15 games — 99/1394/6 on 157 targets
Great 33% | Good 53% | Bust 7%
Defenses: -3.76 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.03 points at Home
Just Julio being Julio. Season in and season out, this is what you get from Julio. You’d like more TDs, you probably won’t get them. But you’re going to get all the receptions and yardage you could possibly want. Julio has a legitimate shot at being the #1 WR every year.
4. Cooper Kupp (223.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #14
16 games — 94/1161/10 on 134 targets
Great 25% | Good 56% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -9.53 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.53 points at Home
Cooper Kupp does not feel like the WR4 on the year. He was far from consistent and did some stat-padding in Week 17. Kupp started the year very hot but from Week 6 on, he wrecked your team. From Week 6 through 12, he was the WR33, and a lot of that was based on one big game. Kupp always has TD-upside, but he will be hard to draft confidently in 2020.
5. DeAndre Hopkins (216.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #4
15 games –104/1165/7 on 150 targets — 2/18/0 rushing — 6-yard passing TD
Great 27% | Good 67% | Bust 20%
Defenses: +3.14 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.34 points on the Road
Hopkins had a rough start to the year but rebounded to be the 4th most consistent player on the season. The issue with Hopkins was that he was good, not great, in 2019 and you paid a great price for him. He is consistent enough to be drafted as a top-5 WR next year but expecting a WR1 season may be a stretch.
6. Kenny Golladay (215.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #9
16 games — 65/1190/11 on 116 targets — 1 fumble lost
Great 31% | Good 63% | Bust 25%
Defenses: +0.49 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.59 points at Home
Kenny G! While it wasn’t always smooth, Golladay delivered for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, most of his good games came on your fantasy bench. Golladay led the NFL in TD receptions in 2019. The Lions had terrible QB play in 2019 and that should improve in 2020 and we can all get back to trusting Kenny G. Golladay scored four more fantasy points per game in the eight games he played with Matthew Stafford. Golladay should be a top-10 WR next year.
7. DeVante Parker (210.2 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #6
16 games — 72/1202/9 on 128 targets
Great 13% | Good 56% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -6.28 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.72 points at Home
DeVante Parker, WR7…never thought I’d type those words together. With Gase gone, Parker flourished. If you take out the weeks he was forced to play with Josh Rosen, this could’ve been an even better season for Parker. Having his consistency tied to Ryan Fitzpatrick is the definition of risky. Fitzpatrick may not even be the QB for Miami next year and that would hurt Parker’s 2020 draft value. The return of Preston Williams and the prospect of a rookie QB makes Parker a risk in 2020, depending on his ADP.
8. Keenan Allen (209.5 Fantasy Points) – Consistency Rank: #16
16 games — 104/1199/6 on 149 targets — 3/16/0 rushing
Great 13% | Good 50% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -1.15 against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.21 points at Home
His inconsistency makes this feel like a disappointing season for Allen owners. His fantasy points were padded by his Great games and his Bust games killed owners. Phillip Rivers was bad in 2019 and he is not going to get better in 2020. With the emergence of Mike Williams and the play of Rivers, Allen is likely a top-15 WR but unlikely to be a top-10 WR. His ADP will determine whether or not you should draft him in 2020.