Fantasy Football: The TRUTH About QBs in 2017, Part 2
Every year The Fantasy Footballers take a deep dive into the TRUTH behind fantasy football finishes from the previous year. Which players were actually consistent? Who provided week-winning performances and who killed fantasy football teams everywhere? All this and more revealed!
The TRUTH Scoring
Player finish, fantasy points, and consistency percentages are based on 4 points per passing TD leagues.
Great Games are more than 25 points (top 3 on average)
Good Games are more than 17 points (top 12 on average)
Bust Games are fewer than 15 points (outside top 16 on average)
Below are QBs 13 and on. Read about the top 12 QBs in Part 1.
13. Blake Bortles (249.68 points) – Consistency Rank #19
16 games — 3687/21/13 — 57/322/2 rushing
Great 19% | Good 38% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -1.1 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -0.6 at Home
I GOT A SNAKE MAN! He was a championship winner for the second year in a row despite “Bortling” for most of the year including an 8 week stretch without a top 12 performance. Over the last 5 weeks of the fantasy season (Weeks 12-16), Blake Bortles was the QB1. Jacksonville faces a tough decision if they want to retain Bortles especially as he led this young up-and-coming team to the brink of the Super Bowl.
14. Case Keenum (237.88 points) – Consistency Rank #16
15 games — 3547/22/7 — 40/160/1 rushing
Great 13% | Good 47 % | Bust 47%
Defenses: -3.4 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -1.6 at Home
Keenum took over in Week 2 after Sam Bradford went down with an injury. However, it wasn’t until Week 8 that he established himself as a viable fantasy option. He averaged 20.2 fantasy points from Weeks 8 to 15, the 5th best during that span. In other words, he led many owners to the playoffs as a streamer turned weekly starter. Keenum’s off-season status is up in the air as the Vikings will have to make decisions on which of their three QBs they will re-sign.
15. Matt Ryan (228.10 points) – Consistency Rank #27
16 games — 4095/20/12 — 32/143/0 rushing
Great 0% | Good 31% | Bust 50%
Defenses: -2.6 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -3.9 at Home
Ryan regressed far past the mean. With ZERO great games, he honestly didn’t help many fantasy teams especially those who drafted him at a high price. In Week 1, he registered a top 10 fantasy week that must’ve pleased owners. That was his best of the season besides a Week 17 performance to allow Atlanta to sneak into the playoffs. Ryan had league-leading 12 QB1 weeks in 2016 and only 4 in 2017. His price could present some value in 2018 especially if owners still have a bad taste in their mouths.
16. Tyrod Taylor (222.66 points) – Consistency Rank #23
15 games — 2799/14/4 — 84/427/4 rushing
Great 7% | Good 40% | Bust 47%
Defenses: -1.3 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -0.2 at Home
Taylor was solid if unspectacular in 2017. In other words, other than Weeks 7 to 9 where he was the QB4 averaging 21.4 fantasy points in those 3 games, he was mostly irrelevant. Bills fans and management thought so as he was benched soon after for the train wreck known as Nathan Peterman. He will likely not be a Bill in 2018 and could sign as a backup. We’ve probably seen the height of Tyrod Taylor as a fantasy option.
17. Andy Dalton (210.70 points) – Consistency Rank #26
16 games — 3320/25 /12 — 38/99/0 rushing
Great 6% | Good 38% | Bust 56%
Defenses: -6.5 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -2.3 at Home
Andy Dalton was probably a forgotten man by many (not the #BillsMafia) in 2017. He struggled against top defenses. He still had 6 QB1 weeks on the season including 3 top 5 weeks, also known as more than Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers… COMBINED. However, with the coaching staff remaining intact, it’s hard seeing Dalton being anymore than a late-late round QB.
18. Marcus Mariota (210.48 points) – Consistency Rank #28
15 games — 3232/13/15 — 60/312/5 rushing
Great 0% | Good 33% | Bust 53%
Defenses: -1.0 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +4.4 at Home
Despite winning a road playoff game in Arrowhead (no small feat), Mariota was a huge fantasy disappointment. With only 3 top 12 weeks and ZERO “great” games, he just didn’t offer the insane upside he possessed in 2016. The offense was capped as read-option plays were stifled and Mariota rarely was able to operate in a more spread-type of sets which showcase his ability to make quick decisions and run. New coach Mike Vrabel is still on the hunt for a new offensive coordinator which will dictate Mariota’s 2018 fantasy appeal.
19. Derek Carr (206.44 points) – Consistency Rank #29
15 games — 3496/22/13 — 23/66/0 rushing
Great 7% | Good 27% | Bust 60%
Defenses: -4.7 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +6.5 at Home
Mr. Payday was a huge bust for someone who many prognosticators were championing as a top 5 option. After Week 7, he averaged 12.7 fantasy points while battling through injuries, the same total as Jacoby Brissett. His splits are also concerning as he was horrendous on the road averaging only 216 passing yards and more than 1 INT. He wasn’t usable and the entire offense suffered as Amari Cooper earned his Pooper shorts for most of the year. With Jon Gruden now running the show, there is some optimism that the Raiders can get this turned around. Carr’s back injury definitely plagued him for most the year but how many more excuses can we give this team?
20. Jacoby Brissett (205.92 points) – Consistency Rank #35
16 games — 3098/13/7 — 63/260/4 rushing
Great 6% | Good 19% | Bust 69%
Defenses: -3.7 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +2.6 at Home
Woof. Not much to see here. Brissett was a placeholder for the injured Andrew Luck and although he did have a few bright spots, he mostly was exactly what we thought he would be: a predictable runner with sub-par passing skills. He was the QB9 from Weeks 3 to 9 averaging 16.6 fantasy points per contest. Hopefully he writes that down and puts it on his fridge because he’ll be off the radar in 2018.
21. Josh McCown (205.44 points) – Consistency Rank #21
13 games — 2926/18/9 — 37/124/5 rushing
Great 15% | Good 38% | Bust 46%
Defenses: -5.9 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +6.4 at Home
McCown feasted on bad defenses at home and boosted his numbers by rushing for 5 TDs, the most in his career. There was a stretch where he was the hotness averaging 21.7 fantasy points from Weeks 6 to 13, third best behind only Russell Wilson and Carson Wentz during that stretch. Now if McCown could somehow finish a season without surrendering his body to the flames…
22. Jameis Winston (201.66 points) – Consistency Rank #14
13 games — 3504/19/11 — 33/135/1 rushing
Great 15% | Good 46% | Bust 46%
Defenses: -3.0 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +5.1 at Home
Winston’s 2017 was interesting as he volleyed from good to bad games before succumbing to an injury and Ryan Fitzpatrick to the helm for three games. He was more of a QB2 option until the end of the season when he was the QB1 Weeks 13 to 17. While still showing he has a weekly ceiling in home matchups, it was frustrating to see Mike Evans be left in the dust. Winston is a solid late round option in 2018 even if Dirk Koetter is still the play-caller.
23. Eli Manning (187.32 points) – Consistency Rank #34
15 games — 3468/19/13 — 12/26/1 rushing
Great 13% | Good 20% | Bust 73%
Defenses: -11.1 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: -0.80 at Home
Fantasy owners over the years should know there’s Good Eli… and Bad Eli. Eli Manning‘s 10 “bad starts” were the most in the league. His bust rate was basically the worst in the league although he did have as many “great” starts as Philip Rivers, the guy he was traded for in 2004. That -11.1 against top 16 defenses is alarming. He could be done and nothing more than a DFS option in the easiest of matchups.
24. Joe Flacco (185.04 points) – Consistency Rank #33
16 games — 3141/18/13 — 25/54/1 rushing
Great 0% | Good 19% | Bust 69%
Defenses: -5.6 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +1.40 at Home
The majority of the 2017 season was abysmal for Joe Flacco in terms of fantasy production. Despite having 549 attempts, Flacco finished with a paltry 3,141 passing yards, the lowest for that many attempts since Joey Harrington‘s god-awful 2003 campaign. He was unstartable for most of the year as he failed to produce a QB1 week for the first 12 weeks. However, he finished strong as the QB5 from Week 13 to Week 16. In other words, if you abandoned Tom Brady and started Flacco for the fantasy playoffs you’d have been in better shape.
29. Aaron Rodgers (129.60 points) – Consistency Rank #3
7 games — 1675/16/6 — 24/126/0 rushing
Great 0% | Good 71% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -4.0 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +5.2 at Home
When A-Rod did play, he was good… but not great. In fact, this is the first season he didn’t register a “great” game in his career. His home/road splits were more drastic than in recent memory. Still, Rodgers, when healthy, is easily in the top 3 discussion.
26. Deshaun Watson (168.86 points) – Consistency Rank #1
7 games — 1699/19/8 — 36/269/2 rushing
Great 43% | Good 86% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -9.5 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +1.0 at Home
Wow! That 43% “great” score is by-far the best in 2017 although the sample size is smaller. Still, he was an animal on the football field as fantasy’s QB1 in Week 4 & 5 and QB2 in Weeks 6 & 7 before going down to an ACL injury. He did get to pick on bad defenses but certainly showed everyone why he was worthy to be the 12th overall pick. There’s unparalleled excitement for his return this next year. The guy had more total TDs (21) in 6.5 games (came in relief Week 1) than Matt Ryan had in 16!
28. Mitch Trubisky (134.52 points) – Consistency Rank #38
12 games — 2193/7/7 — 41/248/2 rushing
Great 0% | Good 17% | Bust 75%
Defenses: -1.4 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: no difference
Mr. Triscuit mailed in a typical rookie QB performance. He was given a partial playbook on a bad offense to develop. In terms of fantasy production, he was able to sneak in two QB1 finishes in Week 14 and Week 16, although I can’t imagine that anyone actually started him outside of a 2-QB league. He did display some moxie and charisma as the Bears did beat the Panthers and Ravens during the season. He was given roll-out plays where he only had to read half the field. In 2018, Trubisky is nothing more than a back-end QB2 unless the Bears dramatically improve their pass-catching options.
34. Jimmy Garoppolo (87.40 points) – Consistency Rank #20
5 games — 1560/7/5 — 15/11/1 rushing
Great 0% | Good 33% | Bust 33%
Defenses: -3.8 vs Top 16
Home/Road Split: +1.0 at Home
Guys it doesn’t get any sexier than this. Jimmy G was “good” but not “great” in his 5 game sample size. His accuracy and quick release definitely bodes well for his franchise QB trajectory. He will be a hot topic in the off-season but his game tape shows he can carry an offense if given the keys.