Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 5

Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!

Managing a dynasty team requires year long engagement and commitment. By far, the toughest aspect of dynasty football is balancing the present and the future. It is not an easy task, but the Fantasy Footballers team is here to help guide you through that process!

We are now through 4 weeks of the season, and the dynasty landscape continues to change as depth charts are adjusted and injuries occur.

If you are new to this series, each week I will provide you with the following:

• Dynasty Tip of the Week
• Dynasty Stock Report
• Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)

Let’s dive in!

Dynasty Tip of The Week:

The Value of Draft Picks

One of my favorite events of the year is the dynasty rookie draft. This event generally represents a fresh beginning or an opportunity to alter the trajectory of your dynasty team.

As a result, a team’s rookie draft pick can be one of the most valuable and flexible resources in dynasty. Unlike a player whose value can fluctuate based on the outcome of the season, a rookie pick will only become more valuable as the year progresses. It also provides flexibility for your roster, since you can trade it in if you ever need to bolster your team’s current outlook.

If you are looking to buy rookie draft picks, now is the time to trade for them. In most cases, their value is at its lowest during the season when they represent future production. As a result, those picks are more valuable to rebuilding teams than they are to a contender. If you are a rebuilding team, take this opportunity to approach a contender and trade away an older, but productive player for draft picks. Especially with all these recent injuries, a contender might be willing to part with their picks in order to maintain the depth of their roster.

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As the season progresses and we approach the off-season activities (draft combine, team visits, etc), the value of your draft picks will continue to rise. Their value will likely peak on draft day, which then gives you the flexibility to either trade them or draft a young, promising prospect for your team. In short, acquire draft picks during the season. And if you do decide to trade them away, try to wait until your rookie draft to maximize their value.

Dynasty Stock Report

Stock Up: Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team, RB

Antonio Gibson had a breakout game this past week, compiling 126 total yards and 1 touchdown on 17 touches. Through 4 games, he has received 44 rushing attempts (43% rushing share) and 12 total targets (8% target share), which has him ranked as the RB28 in total opportunities. And despite Washington struggling on offense, Gibson has actually been relatively productive with his limited opportunities.

Antonio Gibson had his best game as a pro vs BAL (128 total yards and a TD)

Doesn’t get a lot of great blocking. First play looks like duo but the Mike is unblocked and the line doesn’t get a lot of push. But he’s making an impact in the passing game.

His explosion is legit pic.twitter.com/NrBkmJ9dAP

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 6, 2020

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He is currently the RB16 in PPR leagues, primarily due to his efficiency in the red-zone. While his total red-zone opportunities ranks 23rd, his TD rate of 33% inside the 20 is tied for 6th among all RBs. In addition, per PlayerProfiler, he is 13th in yards created per touch (1.76) and 16th in evaded tackles (16) at the RB position. 

The primary concern with Gibson is that he is still splitting touches with both J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber. If and when Washington decides to hand him the keys to the backfield, he could have weekly RB1 upside. Going forward, he will remain a solid, weekly flex option for your dynasty teams.

Stock Down: D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers, WR

This was not the start that fantasy managers had envisioned when they drafted D.J. Moore as a top 10 dynasty WR in startup leagues. After finishing his Sophomore year as the WR14 in PPR points per game, we were hoping for another leap in his third season. Four weeks in, he is only the WR41 in PPR points per game.

So does this mean that fantasy managers should panic? I would not. In fact, I would use this opportunity to trade for Moore. He is currently WR8 in weighted opportunity rating (0.64), the WR12 in total targets (32), and WR11 in total air yards (403). His impressive volume suggests that there are better weeks ahead for Moore. 

Part of his inefficient start to the season is his transition to becoming one of the team’s downfield threats instead of a possession receiver. This has resulted in a career-high 12.6 air yards per target, but a career-low 1.83 yards after catch per reception. As the season progresses, I do believe that Teddy Bridgewater and Moore will continue to develop rapport and improve on their inefficiencies. This could happen as soon as this week when the Panthers face a beatable Falcons secondary.

Stock Up: Kareem Hunt – Cleveland Browns, RB

Kareem Hunt’s dynasty value has slowly risen ever since returning from suspension in 2019. Even with Nick Chubb involved, Hunt has been fairly productive for fantasy managers. In the 12 games that they have played together, Hunt has averaged 3.75 receptions, 7.83 rush attempts,  64.4 total yards, and about 0.67 TDs. That is roughly 14.2 PPR points per game, which would make him an RB2 in most league formats. And in 2020, he has been nothing but efficient for the Browns. Despite only pacing as the RB22 in total opportunities, he is the RB11 in PPR points per game (17.4) and the RB9 in Fantasy Points over Expected per game (+4.5, per Rotoviz). 

We always knew that if something happened to Chubb, Hunt would be a sure-fire RB1. Heading into week 5, Hunt might be just that. Due to an MCL injury, Chubb will be out for several weeks, making Hunt the lead RB for the Browns. But even without the increased opportunity, Hunt should be considered a top 24 dynasty RB going forward solely due to his stand-alone value even with Chubb healthy.

Stock Down: Kenyan Drake – Arizona Cardinals, RB

Kenyan Drake lit the fantasy world on fire after being traded to the Cardinals last season. By now, you are already aware that Drake was the RB3 in PPR points per game from weeks 9 to 16. So heading into the 2020 season, the expectation was that Drake could be a weekly RB1 for your fantasy teams. Through 4 weeks, Drake has underperformed for fantasy managers despite receiving the 14th most opportunities among RBs. The biggest difference for Drake has been his lack of involvement in the passing game, accounting for only 4% of Arizona’s pass attempts in 2020. 

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Kenyan Drake's target share by week:

1: 5.4%
2: 6.1%
3: 3.0%
4: 0.0%

Last season, when he became a Cardinal, his target share dropped below 10% once in 8 games.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 5, 2020

And with the opportunities that he has received, he has been fairly inefficient, averaging about 2.13 fantasy points below expected (RB127 per Rotoviz). While I do not believe this happens anytime soon, it is possible the Cardinals move on from Drake if he continues to underperform. If you are a Drake fantasy manager, be sure to roster Chase Edmonds and Eno Benjamin, just in case the Cardinals decide to shake up the depth chart.

Stock Up: CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys, WR

Heading into the season, there was some uncertainty regarding CeeDee Lamb’s opportunity in an already loaded WR corps. What we did not expect, however, is that the Cowboys would be averaging the most passing attempts in the league. Through 4 games, Dak Prescott has thrown the ball 50.2 times per game, while averaging about 422.5 passing yards. If this trend continues, it would not be a surprise for Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Amari Cooper to each finish with at least 100 targets and a 1,000 receiving yards.

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So far, Cooper is the clear-cut WR1 for this offense. But to our surprise, Lamb (not Gallup) is the WR2 in both target share (14%) and total receptions (21) for this offense. As a result, Lamb is the WR23 in PPR points per game through the first quarter of the season. Gallup has been primarily used as a deep threat, as evidenced by his 25% air yards share, so he will undoubtedly have some week-winning games. However, if I were starting a dynasty team today, I would prefer Lamb’s consistent, weekly floor in my fantasy lineups.

Stock Down: A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals, WR

In last week’s dynasty report, I talked about Tee Higgins’ rising dynasty value. Despite that, I was not yet ready to write off A.J. Green mainly due to the volume that he was receiving. Through 4 weeks, Green has seen the 10th most targets (33) and 3rd most air yards (480) among WRs. Because of that volume, Rotoviz’s fantasy points over expected metric has him projected as the WR17 (52.2 PPR points).

In those 4 games, however, Green has finished with 26.3 PPR points below expected, while pacing as the WR93 in PPR points per game. His days as a consistent, fantasy WR are likely over, making him unstartable for all dynasty teams. For now, I expect Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to be the only fantasy relevant receivers in this offense.

Bonus: Weighted Opportunity Rating for WRs

One of my absolute favorite metrics is weighted opportunity rating, or WOPR. While the acronym sounds like a Burger King sandwich, it is actually an extremely predictive metric for future WR fantasy success. Statistically, it has a solid R2 correlation of 0.48, which means that WOPR can predict 48% of a player’s production the following year. Simply put, players who receive volume and are productive will usually continue to see opportunity.

Formula: 1.50 x (Target Market Share) + 0.70 x (Air Yard Market Share)

Through 4 weeks, which wide receivers lead the league in WOPR?