Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 17
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
In the final edition of this year’s Dynasty Report, I wanted to personally thank all of you for reading my weekly article, providing feedback, and allowing me to help you build your dynasty rosters.
I sincerely hope that each one of you won a dynasty #FootclanTitle. But if not, remember that the landscape is continuously changing. Making the right moves this off-season could be the turning point to transform your roster into a championship team.
As always, I will provide you with the following:
- Dynasty Tip of the Week
- Dynasty Stock Report
- Bonus Segment (an intriguing statistic, college prospect evaluation, or a dynasty stash)
Let’s dive in!
Dynasty Tip of The Week
Review and learn from your Dynasty Season
Whether you just won your dynasty championship or are approaching a rebuild, there is always something you can learn from this past season. I encourage you to take a look at your drafts and trades to evaluate where you could have improved! Were there any moves you would have done differently? Was your draft strategy successful?
One lesson that I have learned over the years, which was once again evident in this year’s rookie class, is that talent usually outweighs the landing spot. The cream rises to the top, which means that talent eventually leads to playing time despite the crowded depth chart. Rookies that fall into that category this season are Tee Higgins, J.K. Dobbins, and D’Andre Swift. Conversely, Jalen Reagor and Henry Ruggs are two rookies who had a clear path to opportunity but were unable to produce.
In addition to looking back at your season, be sure to look ahead as well. Assess your roster’s strengths and weaknesses, positional depth, and formulate a game plan to either defend your championship or become a playoff contender. A great way to evaluate your roster is by running it against a set of dynasty rankings. On your roster, how many players are currently within the top 50? Or the top 24 at each position? This will help you determine which position group may need the most improvement this coming off-season.
As always, the Fantasy Footballers team will continue to provide you content even during the off-season. So be sure to follow along as we continue to build towards that dynasty championship!
Dynasty Stock Report
A.J. Dillon – Green Bay Packers, RB
With Jamaal Williams recovering from a quadriceps injury, A.J. Dillon was expected to be the backup and change-of-pace RB behind Aaron Jones in week 16. Surprisingly, Dillon would lead the team with 22 opportunities, 129 scrimmage yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. And for the few fantasy managers that started him, he produced 25.9 PPR points, finishing as the RB6 this week. What was extremely encouraging was Dillon’s efficiency, breaking tackles, and generating positive yardage on most of his plays.
Rookie AJ Dillon scores his first NFL touchdown! #GoPackGo
— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2020
Of course, the caveat to this performance is that it was against a below-average Titans defense. In addition, the Packers were leading for the majority of the game, which allowed them to run the ball 37 times (2nd most this season). Therefore, we should continue to expect a RB committee, with Aaron Jones leading the way. And while I think Jones is the more electric RB, there is a realistic scenario where the Packers move on from him in 2021 to prioritize their cap space for other positions. And with Jamaal Williams also approaching free agency, Dillon’s stock could be on the rise as he may be the unquestioned lead RB for Matt LaFleur’s offense next year.
Anthony Miller – Chicago Bears, WR
While we always knew that Allen Robinson would be the WR1 for Matt Nagy’s offense, there was some optimism that Anthony Miller would emerge as the WR2 this season. However, in 15 games, Miller has clearly fallen down the depth chart, only averaging the 3rd highest snap percentage among all Bears WRs (56%) behind Robinson and rookie Darnell Mooney. In addition, since their bye week, Cole Kmet has assumed a more prominent role in 2 TE sets, further reducing Miller’s opportunity. And for fantasy, Miller has hardly produced, ranking as the WR93 in PPR points per game.
Looking ahead, Miller’s dynasty value is trending in the wrong direction as he will likely remain the 4th option at best next season. Even with Robinson potentially leaving in free agency, I expect the Bears to address the WR position either with a free agent signing or through this deep 2021 class. And with Kmet and Mooney continuing to develop, Miller’s dynasty upside will remain capped as he approaches his 4th season in the league.
Irv Smith Jr. – Minnesota Vikings, TE
Though the 2019 TE class was headlined by T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr. was a similarly intriguing prospect coming out of Alabama. While his first two years in college were relatively quiet, he would finish his Junior season with 710 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, while leading the TE class in yards per route run (2.56). After being drafted by the Vikings and slotting behind Kyle Rudolph on the depth chart, it was immediately assumed that it would take a few years for Smith to become a startable fantasy tight end. Because of the limited opportunity, his rookie season was fairly unproductive, finishing as the TE41 in PPR points per game (4.9). That trend would continue into 2020 as he would split snaps with Rudolph while battling injuries earlier this year.
Vikings TE – Irv Smith Jr.
Potential dynasty trade target?
Weeks 14-16 (Rudolph out):
▫️TE5 in PPR/G (15.5)
▫️TE9 in Rec Yards/G (51)
▫️T-1st among TEs in Rec TDs (3)
Rudolph’s dead cap drops significantly post-June 2021 ($8MM+ annual cap savings) if the Vikings released him pic.twitter.com/CJdY7TDUFo
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 29, 2020
With Rudolph recovering from a foot injury over the last three weeks, we finally saw a glimpse of Smith’s significant upside. During the fantasy playoffs, Smith was the TE5 in PPR points per game (15.5) averaging 5.7 targets, 51 yards, and one touchdown in three games. Considering his performance to close out the season, the Vikings will have a tough decision to make this off-season. With Rudolph’s dead cap dropping significantly starting in 2021, he could be a potential cut candidate if the Vikings decided to commit to Smith. For now, Smith remains an excellent trade target for dynasty managers who are in need of a potential difference-maker at the TE position.
Jalen Reagor – Philadelphia Eagles, WR
With several rookie wide receivers breaking out, Jalen Reagor’s Rookie Dynasty ADP has slowly dropped since the start of the season. In September, Jalen Reagor was the rookie WR3, ahead of Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins. Unfortunately, what was seemingly the most ideal landing spot never materialized into fantasy production. He is currently the WR67 in weighted opportunity rating (0.37) and only the WR76 in PPR points per game (8.5). As a result, Reagor’s rookie ADP dropped to WR7, falling behind all of the receivers I mentioned above.
Reagor’s lack of production can be partially attributed to the inefficiency of this offense, ranking 10th in passing attempts (565) while averaging the 5th lowest yards per attempt (6.4). Furthermore, he has also seen the 95th lowest catchable target rate (62.3%) among all receivers, while ranking WR25 in unrealized air yards (423). However, there is some room for optimism with Jalen Hurts taking over as the QB1, and hopefully having a full off-season to build chemistry with the offense. So while his performance has led to a decline in his dynasty stock, I still believe Reagor could be an excellent trade target with breakout potential come 2021.
Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills, WR
At the beginning of this season, many questioned if the Bills offense could produce a top tier fantasy WR1 and improve upon their 2019 season. Hindsight, of course, is 20/20, but I remember having my doubts about this Buffalo Bills team heading into the year. What I assumed would be a run-heavy scheme transformed into an offense that could sustain multiple fantasy-relevant receivers on any given week. A lot of their improvement can be attributed to the addition of Stefon Diggs, who has been an absolute league-winner for many dynasty rosters. Not only is he the WR3 in PPR points per game (20.9), he also dominated when it mattered the most. In the fantasy playoffs, he led all receivers in targets (38), receiving yards (422), and PPR points (96.3), proving that he should be in the conversation to be a dynasty WR1 heading into 2021.
As I mentioned above, volume was the primary concern for Diggs heading into the season. However, he would go on to average a career-high in targets per game (10.7) and weighted opportunity rating (0.69), leading to his best statistical season since joining the league. And with the added volume, Diggs remained efficient, averaging the 2nd highest yards per target in his career (9.1) while also ranking as the WR5 in yards per route run (2.74). If he continues to receive volume heading into 2021, we can safely assume that Diggs will once again be a WR1 for dynasty managers next season.
Bonus: College Prospect Evaluation
Tylan Wallace – Oklahoma State Cowboys, WR
Tylan Wallace, Senior WR out of Oklahoma State, has been a very productive player in his four-year collegiate career. After a quiet freshman season, he would break out as a Sophomore ranking 2nd in the country in receiving yards (1,491), 13th in receptions (86), and 2nd in deep ball receptions (25). He would finish his second year with an impressive 36% dominator rating for the Cowboys. Wallace was on his way to an improved Junior season when he, unfortunately, tore his ACL. As a result, he did not commit to the 2020 draft and instead returned for his final year. In 9 games this season (excluding the Cheez-It Bowl where he intentionally only played one half), he is averaging 5.9 receptions, 96.9 receiving yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game.
Tylan Wallace among Big 12 WRs this season
🔸 877 yards (1st)
🔸 40 first downs (1st)
🔸 84.9 grade (2nd) pic.twitter.com/Z2qqYN08Bb
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 29, 2020
What I love about Wallace’s film is his proficient and sound route running. He is very efficient with his movement, rarely wasting any steps when executing his routes. In addition, he excels in contested catch situations, often showcasing his ability to track and high-point the ball. He also possesses excellent body control, allowing him to adjust mid-air to make some impressive catches down the field. In fact, over the last two seasons (2018 and 2019), Wallace leads all receivers in 20+ yard contested catches with 16, proving that he can be a reliable deep threat for his QB.
At only 6’0” and 190lbs, Wallace can be very physical with the ball in his hands. He is not afraid to lower his shoulder to gain additional yards after the catch. One issue I found with his game is his inability to consistently beat physical and tight coverage. At times, defenders would easily press him towards the sideline, rendering his route ineffective. He is also not the most efficient blocker, which could be a concern at the next level. However, those are all traits that can be improved upon, especially if he gains some size entering his rookie season. Regardless, Wallace is a sure-handed, well-rounded receiver who could be a value in the 2nd round of your dynasty rookie drafts.
NFL Draft Projection: Late 2nd Round
Fantasy Rookie Draft Projection (1QB/1TE): Early 2nd Round