Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 12
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report, Footclan!
As the year progresses, dynasty values will continue to fluctuate as injuries occur, depth charts are adjusted, and rookies emerge. Keep in mind that managing a dynasty team will require year-long engagement, with a balanced view of your team’s short and long-term outlook. Therefore, each week I will be highlighting some of the dynasty risers and fallers in the form of a Dynasty Stock Report. My hope is that this article can be a go-to resource on your journey to a dynasty #FootclanTitle. In addition to the Dynasty Stock Report, you will also find an updated Rookie Opportunity Dashboard (market share, red-zone stats, etc.) along with either a 2022 prospect breakdown, a dynasty strategy discussion, or a player to stash for the future.
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Let’s dive in!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 11
Below you will find a summary of each rookie’s performance and usage for the past week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points is a value calculated based on a player’s usage in their offense. The more high-value opportunities they receive (deep targets, red-zone opportunities, etc.), the higher their expected value will be.
- FPOE stands for Fantasy Points Over Expected and signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual PPR points and their expected PPR value.
- Red-Zone Opportunities include targets and rush attempts. For quarterbacks, pass attempts are included as well.
If there are any specific metrics you would like me to include, or if a rookie was excluded, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
A Few Rookie Observations from Week 11:
- Mac Jones regresses back to reality (-6.0 FPOE), converting 5 red-zone opportunities into only 1 touchdown
- Najee Harris is back to dominating the xFP column of our dashboard, though week 11 was his lowest opportunity share since week 2 (29.0%)
- Kyle Pitts has had at least a 20% target share in six games straight; that streak was broken this past week as he received a 16.1% target share against the Patriots
- The Muth continues to dominate in usage, finishing as the TE7 in expected fantasy points with 15.29
- Kadarius Toney was highly inefficient scoring 12.5 points below expected, while also finishing 3rd in expected points (23.54) among all wide receivers
- Elijah Moore continues his breakout, finishing the week as a top-7 wide receiver in both usage (19.69 xFP) and efficiency (+9.91 FPOE)
Dynasty Strategy: How to Approach the Trade Deadline
If your dynasty leagues are similar to mine, the trade deadline is swiftly approaching – either at the end of week 12 or potentially Week 13. Hopefully, your team is in a position to secure a playoff spot in the coming weeks. However, for those that are hovering around a .500 record, you may have to decide between making a push towards the playoffs or opting for a rebuild into the 2022 off-season. Therefore, below are a few tips that will hopefully help you navigate through your dynasty trade deadline:
- Each league is its own ecosystem: Player values fluctuate as roster construction and individual teams vary from league to league. For example, a player like DeVonta Freeman (limited long-term value) might be more valuable to a contender who is clamoring for depth in a four-flex, 14-team league. On the other hand, in a 10-team two-flex league, Freeman is unlikely to garner as much interest since depth is not as vital.
- Communicate with your League: One of the most important aspects of dynasty football is communication. If a league mate sends you a message showing interest in a player, even if you do not agree with their offer, respond back to them. Negotiate, or simply let them know why you agree or disagree with their assessment. You might eventually come to an agreement (and potentially find value in an offer), but that won’t ever happen unless you communicate with the other manager.
- Older, Veteran players are most valuable during the season… which is why rebuilding teams should use this opportunity to trade them away while they hold value. Adam Thielen for example could be a reasonable trade target for a contender this week, though I highly doubt many dynasty managers will be clamoring to acquire him during the off-season. Conversely…
- Pick values are at their lowest right now: If you are planning to rebuild through the draft, do not wait until the off-season to trade for picks. Once the rookie season comes around, those picks will only increase in value. Trade for them now while contenders are desperate for depth as they gear up for a playoff run. Speaking of depth…
- Depth is key to a playoff run: Even if you have the best starting lineup, a season-ending injury or Covid outbreak could hurt your team significantly if you do not have the depth to replace those players. Because of that, I do not consider my dynasty teams as contenders unless I am at least one or, ideally, two players deep at each position. Make sure that even if an injury occurs, you can still remain competitive against the best teams in the league.
- There is nothing wrong with rebuilding for 2022 or 2023. Sometimes things happen during the season that are out of our control. If your team has underperformed, there is nothing wrong with missing the playoffs and focusing on the 2022 off-season. Remember, you are building a dynasty that will hopefully last for many years. Even if you miss out on the playoffs in 2021, you have an opportunity to come back even stronger and contend for a #FootclanTitle for the next few seasons.
Dynasty Stock Report
If you have Jonathan Taylor on your team, you currently hold one of the most valuable dynasty players in the fantasy landscape. Over the last couple of months, Taylor has been absolutely dominant, averaging 29.0 PPR points since week 4. Impressively enough, he is averaging 5.6 points above the RB2 in that timespan (Austin Ekeler), providing dynasty managers with matchup-winning upside every single week. Of course, his week 11 explosion has boosted his per-game averages though we can not neglect just how consistent he has been in his last eight games. Taylor finished as a PPR RB1 every single week and as a top-3 running back in four of those eight matchups. What is even more encouraging is that the Colts are leaning on Taylor even more as of late, setting season-highs in opportunity share (48.3% and 58.3%) and snap share (84.4% and 82.6%) over the last two weeks.
To highlight just how impressive he was this past week, the chart above includes every lead RB that has faced Buffalo this year, one of the toughest defenses against fantasy running backs. Taylor stands out as the most efficient running back of the bunch with an impressive expected PPR value of 36.4. Going forward, there should be very little discussion as to where Taylor ranks in the dynasty landscape. At only 22 years old, he should be considered a top-3 dynasty asset, with maybe only one or two other players I would consider drafting over him depending on the scoring format. And with his dominant usage in the rushing and receiving game, his high floor and upside make him one of the most reliable fantasy running backs in the game today.
Chris Carson – Seattle Seahawks, RB
About a week ago, there was some optimism that Chris Carson could return this season, as he was designated to return to practice prior to the Seahawks’ week 10 matchup. However, this past week, it was announced that Carson will undergo season-ending neck surgery, prematurely ending the first year of his contract extension. While this was certainly a lost season, it is important to note just how productive Carson was as the Seahawks’ lead running back earlier this year. Even in limited action, he finished within the top-24 in 75% of his games, averaging 14.7 PPR points as the RB18 for the first three weeks. While he does not provide you with flashy, game-winning upside, Carson can be an extremely reliable top-24 running back when healthy.
The good news is that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks expect a full recovery before the 2022 season. Regardless, it seems that Carson’s productive years are numbered as he is only under contract with Seattle for one more season. Even next year, his dead cap is extremely low ($1.5 million), which means Seattle could potentially save $4.9 million in 2022 if they were to release him. Considering their ample cap space and current backfield situation, I expect Carson to return as their lead RB for one more year. However, do not be surprised if the Seahawks draft Carson’s successor this upcoming off-season in anticipation of his free agency after 2022. As for this year, Alex Collins will likely continue to lead this backfield. Though as Andy, Mike, and Jason pointed out in Monday’s show, Rashaad Penny did receive the first carry this past week, which means he could be on tap for an expanded role – assuming he can overcome his most recent hamstring injury.
Elijah Moore – New York Jets, WR
Our Fantasy Mythbusters series by Matt DiSorbo is one of my favorites on the site. And in his most recent article, he confirmed the myth that rookies tend to be more productive in the second half of the season. A rookie who is trending in the right direction since his team’s bye week is Elijah Moore, second-round receiver out of Ole Miss. If you have followed along during the pre-draft process, you might already know how much I loved Moore’s profile coming out of college. My prospect model had him ranked in the 91st percentile (dating back to 2010), with similar college production profiles as stud receivers Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and Justin Jefferson. But because this past draft class was so top-heavy, Moore became an immense value in the late 1st or even early 2nd round of your rookie drafts. Fast forward to week 11, and Moore has been one of the most productive receivers over the last three weeks. In that timespan, Moore is the:
- WR2 in PPR points per game (23.5)
- WR6 in Receiving Yards per Game (89.7)
- WR13 in Targets per Game (8.33)
- WR16 in Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (1.95)
While Moore has been extremely impressive, we have to acknowledge that his touchdown efficiency (four in his last three games) is likely unsustainable. What is most concerning is that the Jets are likely going to start Zach Wilson this upcoming week. This could once again change the target distribution (potentially leaning Corey Davis’ way) and efficiency for this team. Regardless, dynasty managers should be encouraged by Moore’s breakout performance, showcasing his ability to lead this offense. And with several favorable matchups coming up, if Wilson learns to rely on Moore as his primary target, I would not be surprised if he finds himself back in the top-24 as soon as this week.
It has been a roller-coaster of a season for the Browns and Baker Mayfield. After starting the season 3-1, they have battled through numerous injuries to key players and are currently sitting slightly above .500 battling for a wildcard spot. As for Mayfield, he has played through several injuries, including a bruised heel, a bone bruise in his knee, and a torn labrum in his left shoulder. It is safe to say that he is far from being fully healthy, which likely has affected his production and upside for fantasy. Through 11 weeks, Mayfield is only the QB32 in points per game (13.0) while finishing inside the top-12 only twice so far this season. In addition, Mayfield has also finished outside of the top-24 five times, likely losing you your matchups if you relied on him as your starting QB.
From an efficiency standpoint, Mayfield ranks below average in Completion Percentage Over Expected at QB19 (+0.6) per RBSDM’s data above. In addition, he is only averaging a 47.7% success rate on his attempts, while ranking 22nd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play (+0.098). It is worth noting, however, that Mayfield crushed each of those stats last season, ranking within the top-10 in all three metrics. Unfortunately, it seems that his injuries and a slight downgrade in his supporting cast have affected his efficiency immensely this season. And with a contract extension yet to be signed with the Browns, Mayfield’s future is somewhat in flux as his dynasty value continues to trend in the wrong direction.