Fantasy Football: Decoding the Top 12 QBs for Week 11
Here was last week’s top 12 (with the bold being correctly called) in standard 4 points per passing TD leagues…
Newton, Cousins, Goff, Beathard, Keenum, Kizer, Brady, Stafford, Wilson, Roethlisberger, Mariota, Manning
7-out-12 is a solid week although it’s humbling when you see names like Beathard, Keenum and Kizer.
Each week we look at the varying tiers of quarterbacks, assessing risk, home/away matchups, Vegas totals and realizing each week will have a bit of spontaneity. This isn’t about predicting order, but simply identifying who is likely to be among the top 12. Here is how I break up the decoding each week:
Four-Sures: My top 4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top 12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into that top 12 including a stream of the week option and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
Check out where Andy, Mike, and Jason have their QBs ranked for Week 11.
Four-Sures
Tom Brady @ OAK
Let these stats wash over you: the Raiders have allowed the eighth most yards per game and the 12th most fantasy points per game to QBs. They have the worst pass DVOA defense in the league according to Football Outsiders. In Vegas’ highest/over under, Brady will own.
Drew Brees vs. WAS
Brees has underwhelmed in terms of giving us a huge ceiling to work with now that this Saints offense has decided to dominate on the ground. The Saints still have the highest team implied total (29.5) against a Redskins pass defense that was murdered by Case Keenum last week. Washington has given up the 8th most fantasy points to QBs this season so don’t be scared off by Josh Norman and company.
Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
Russell Wilson vs. ATL
Wilson has turned it up a notch with the most passing yards over the last four weeks and the second most rushing yards over that span. With the continued need to carry the team with his passing volume, Wilson has a high floor against a Falcons pass defense ranked 20th according to Football Outsiders.
Carson Wentz @ DAL
Our golden boy and front-runner for league MVP takes on his divisional rival. Dallas ranks 19th in pass defense and 26th in DVOA against the TE position. Even on the road, the Eagles have a healthy 25.8 team implied total so Wentz is an obvious top 5 start.
Com-Four-table
Dak Prescott vs. PHI
Dak had to do it all last week and suffered from a pieced-together offensive line and 8 sacks from the Falcons. If they are going to keep up with Carson Wentz and the Eagles this week, Dak will have to utilize options such as Rod Smith out of the backfield. He should set a season-high in pass attempts which is what I’m chasing in this game. He’s been fairly dependable all season as a QB1 so before we write him off, let’s see what happens in Week 11.
Derek Carr vs. NE
After a bye week, Carr has a chance to beat the world champs at home. The Patriots rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and have hovered in the bottom 3 for most of the year. With a 52.5 over/under, points can be scored in bunches especially if he has to keep up with Brady.
Alex Smith @ NYG
After a bye week, Smith and the Chiefs have a juicy matchup on the road. The Giants are allowing the third most passing yards per game and the most Fantasy points per game to QBs. C.J. Beathard dropped 26 Fantasy points on them last week. He’s locked in as a QB1.
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Ben Roethlisberger vs. TEN
The Thursday night starts are always a bit nerve-racking considering Big Ben had trouble against the Colts last week. He still can be a solid QB1 start at home as a 7 point favorite. The Titans secondary ranks 24th against the pass and 26th against pass catching backs. The Steelers should feast.
Four-in-the-Door
Eli Manning vs. KC
Eli is a nightmare waiting to happen and he makes you super nervous. But there is fantasy golds in them hills if you have the patience to mine it out. The Chiefs have allowed the third most yards per game, the fifth most passing yards per game, and they are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. At home, he’s a tasty option in the lower-tier streaming options for Week 11.
Ryan Fitzpatrick @ MIA
Fitz looked rough last week against the Jets but now gets back his favorite target in Mike Evans. Miami ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and looked lost on Monday night against Cam Newton and the Panthers allowing just allowed 254 passing yards and four pass TDs. I think defense will be a forgotten word in this matchup and I like the over
Jay Cutler vs. TB
Yeah it gets rough this week but Fitz’ dueling mate is startable at home. But Cutler has been alright recently throwing at least two TD passes in four straight games. The Buccaneers defense that ranks fifth worst in pass DVOA and that has given up the fifth most passing yards per game. Volume is the play as well as Miami also has the sixth highest pass to run ratio (1.61) so far this season. He’s a dart throw and a cheap play in DFS.
Blake Bortles @ CLE
Yuck. I don’t like recommending Bortles as a streamer but he’s a worthy option this week against a Browns pass defense ranked 27th against the pass. The Browns have one of the worst adjusted sack rates according to Football Outsiders. They’ve been dominant against the run so he might be forced to win the game with his arm… not exactly desirable for Jaguars fans.
Four-Get-About-It
Case Keenum vs. LAR
It’s time to realize Keenum is a below average QB and you’ll see this come to fruition this week. The Rams rank 2nd in pass DVOA and 1st in overall team defense. They also know how to get after the QB so I would shy away from using Keenum this week even at home.
Jared Goff @ MIN
I’m calling for a relative disappointment in this game …the Keenum-Goff showdown. Goff goes against the 9th best team defense according Football Outsiders on the road. With a 21.8 team implied, this is the lowest projected total the Rams have seen in a while.
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Kirk Cousins @ NO
No thank you. I have doubted this Saints defense for much of the year but this is a spot I don’t particularly like Cousins. They rank 4th in DVOA against the pass and will be at home as 8 point favorites. He could weasel his way to a QB1 performance through sheer volume but I don’t like his upside on the road.
Matthew Stafford @ CHI
This seems like a trap game on the road for Stafford. Chicago has given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs this season and ranks 10th overall in team defense.
Last Week’s Record: 7/12
2017 Overall Percentage: 60%