Fantasy Football: Decoding the Top 12 QBs for Week 10
This is what we call in fantasy football predictive world as going nuclear! What a week for the Decoder as we took down Week 9. Here was last week’s top 12 (with the bold being correctly called) in standard 4 points per passing TD leagues…
Goff, Taylor, Prescott, Wentz, Cutler, Wilson, Stafford, Newton, Brissett, Brees, Ryan, Smith
Wow! 10-for-12 with a suprising Jay Cutler deciding to ruin the party. Now let me caution and say last week’s matchups had relatively easy streaming choices. Let’s hope we can captalize on that again as we currently sit over 60% on the year.
Each week we look at the varying tiers of quarterbacks, assessing risk, home/away matchups, Vegas totals and realizing each week will have a bit of spontaneity. This isn’t about predicting order, but simply identifying who is likely to be among the top 12. Here is how I break up the decoding each week:
Four-Sures: My top 4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top 12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into that top 12 including a stream of the week option and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
Check out where Andy, Mike, and Jason have their QBs ranked for Week 10.
Dak Prescott vs. ATL
Dak returned to form last week annihilating the Chiefs secondary while adding a score on the ground. This Atlanta defense ranks 29th in defensive DVOA on the year and only forced 2 INTs on the year. This game has Vegas’ highest over/under at 50.5. He’s an automatic QB1.
Tom Brady @ DEN
This matchup would’ve scared me a year ago but this Broncos defense was tore up for 51 points and 4 passing TDs last week to the Eagles. Brady is still Brady and with a 26.8 team implied total on the road, Vegas is still confident in TB12. Watch out for Gronk to explode as Denver ranks 25th against the TE position.
Russell Wilson @ ARI
Wilson has been dynamic of late cruising to QB1 status each week. This Thursday night divisional matchup should give us some caution as the Cardinals and Seahawks have had some divisional defensive duds in recent years. However, this is a different Cards secondary that has given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Their 23.8 team implied total is enough to land Wilson as a surefire top 5 play.
Matthew Stafford vs. CLE
Stafford has been on a roll recently and shredded the Packers on Monday Night football. As 12 point favorites at home, there’s a lot to like in this matchup. The Browns have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and 3rd most passing TDs on the year. The Lions have the 2nd highest team implied total (27.8) of the weekend. Set it and forget it.
Matt Ryan vs DAL
Ryan and the Falcons are bummed after last week’s loss but he actually had his best fantasy performance of the year against Carolina. With this being the highest total of the weekend, there will be points scored. This Cowboys secondary ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA and only forced 4 INTs on the year. Ryan and the offense can turn it around.
Ben Roethlisberger @ IND
After a bye week, Big Ben has a dream matchup in place to blow up. The Colts are allowing the most points per game and the second most passing yards per game. With a 27 point team implied total, the Steelers are going to roll even on the road.
Drew Brees @ BUF
Brees only has three passing touchdowns in his last three games but you know it’s always in his arsenal t go off. He’s averaged 18.7 fantasy points on the road this season so dependability is there. The Bills have allowed the seventh most passing yards per game and have been tore up the last 4 weeks. Trust in their offense and the future HOFer to churn out at least a low-end QB1 week.
Jared Goff vs HOU
Goff went bonkers last week on only 14 completed passes so count on some efficiency regression. You’ve heard all week this is the highest scoring offense in the league and now they play at home against a distraught Houston defense. Houston has allowed the third most fantasy points per game against opposing QBs. This game could get ugly quick with a 29 point team implied total.
Cam Newton vs. MIA
Newton has begun to run again which takes his ceiling up another level. The Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and honestly look like a lost franchise. With only 3 INTs on the year, this isn’t a defense that knows how to create turnovers. The Panthers 24.5 team implied total is the 6th best on the weekend.
Tyrod Taylor vs. NO
Taylor has proven himself to be a trust-worthy commodity although he gets bumped down into this tier against a Saints defense ranked 6th best in DVOA against the pass. With Taylor averaging 26+ yards on the ground per game, he’s established a safe floor. Hopefully Kelvin Benjamin will give him a certified red-zone option, something he’s lacked since Charles Clay went down.
Josh McCown @ TB
McCown is currently the QB10 on the year as he’s led the surprising Jets to become a competitive playoff-caliber team. The Bucs have been atrocious as a secondary as they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the year. Fire him up as a worthy streamer.
Eli Manning @ SF
It’s always dangerous when you’re rolling the dice with Eli. You never know if you’re getting good Eli or bad Eli. This matchup sets up well as the 49ers have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the 10th most passing yards (244.8) per game. They rank 24th in DVOA against the pass so take advantage of this DFS dart throw.
Marcus Mariota vs. CIN
This Tennessee offense is not the juggernaut we once envisioned at the beginning of the year. It all predicates on the run, which the Bengals rank 6th best in the league. Mariota has not showcased any type of ceiling this year as he’s been hobbled with injuries. He’s still a wait and see for me.
Kirk Cousins vs. MIN
Cousins runs into a Vikings defense that has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. I don’t feel confident even in a road matchup to start him. They’ve allowed only 9 passing TDs on the year, 4th best in the league. Captain Kirk can set his phasers to … well …um… dangit just sit him.
Philip Rivers @ JAX
This simple: sit Rivers against #Sacksonville and the #1 ranked pass defense in the league.
Jacoby Brissett vs. PIT
Don’t get cute with a player who somehow has 4 QB1 weeks on the year. This Steelers defense creates turnovers and has 26 sacks on the year, 4th best in the league. They also rank 5th best in DVOA against the pass. He’s a certain sit.
Last Week’s Record: 10/12
2017 Overall Percentage: 60.2%