Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 9
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 8’s results:
|Keenan Allen||Top 18 WR||Buy||Buy|
|Chase Claypool||70+ receiving yards||Sell||Sell|
|Amari Cooper||5+ receptions||Buy||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Chase Edmonds||36 rushing yards|
|Justin Fields||200 passing yards||Sell|
|Kenneth Gainwell||26 rushing yards||Buy|
|2021 Overall||55% (11/20)||57% (13/23)||61% (14/23)||60% (29/48)|
Andy and Mike were smart to support Keenan Allen because the Patriots did indeed shut down Mike Williams, and Keenan snuck into the endzone for his second touchdown of the year. Chase Claypool, meanwhile, was not a huge part of the Steelers’ game plan against Cleveland, and Dionte Johnson gobbled up the targets, something he often does (he has more games of 10+ targets than games without in his career, that’s astounding). Also, the Amari Cooper, 5-reception line was an easy buy for all four of us for a reason.
My reverse psychology regarding Justin Fields kinda worked… He didn’t excel in the passing game, but he provided a great fantasy output by rushing for over 100 yards. So, my fantasy team got lots of points from Fields, and I still won the line. Win-Win!
Finally, Lady Luck was on my side as Kenneth Gainwell accumulated 27 rushing yards, just eking me over the 26-yard threshold. That said, I was wrong to believe that Gainwell would take over a larger rushing role with Miles Sanders sidelined. Instead, it was Jordan Howard and Boston Scott who led the rushing attack. Still, the Lions are so bad that the Eagles gave Gainwell 13 attempts in garbage time after the starters were pulled. It’s worth noting that Gainwell will maintain his pass-catching role (i.e. Philadelphia’s version of J.D. McKissic) while Sanders remains on IR.
Week 9 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Midseason Review + TNF Preview, Stone Cold”.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR) vs. NE – Top-20 WR
Andy mentioned that D.J. Moore is averaging nine targets per game, but still, Jason sold because New England should take away Carolina’s best player, which is Moore. Mike tried to spread some positivity and bought this line believing in the volume. Andy sold, despite the fact that four teams are on bye, and Andy doesn’t think he scores.
Against all my hopes, I am going to sell. I’ve been saying this for a while now, but J.C. Jackson is having a great year at corner for the Patriots. Moore is likely to see a lot of Jackson and maybe some double coverages. I think that keeps him out of the top 20.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL) @ NO – 10+ Fantasy Points
Jason sold because the Saints are very good at defending the tight end position, and Mike sold too believing Pitts won’t score a touchdown. Conversely, Andy bought because the Saints are not particularly good at defending the wide receiver position, which more accurately reflects the position Kyle Pitts plays.
I agree with Jason. I think the Saints are highly likely to use Marshon Lattimore to defend Pitts. Pitts lines up in the slot or wide 74% of the time. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Lattimore shadow a tight end who plays more like a wide receiver, especially with no Calvin Ridley.
Darrell Williams (RB, KC) vs. GB – Top 20 RB
Andy bought it because he thinks Williams will do enough in the passing game to creep into the top-20. Mike also bought highlighting that Williams is averaging approximately 5 targets a game while Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been injured. Jason and I also bought given the low nature of the line.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN) @ LAR – More than 1 passing touchdown
Without Derrick Henry, the Titans are certain to rely on Tannehill’s passing more, especially with Adrian Peterson still new to the team. Add in a likely negative game script because the Rams are very good, and you have a recipe for a multiple passing touchdown game for Tannehill. I will buy.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN) @ DAL – 15 receiving yards
Javonte Williams is more involved in the passing game than this line suggests. Since Week 3, Williams is averaging four targets a game. Also, Javonte Williams is leading the league in forced missed tackles, so I conclude that 15 receiving yards will be a likely outcome.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT) vs. CHI – 7+ targets
As I mentioned above, Dionte Johnson is averaging almost 11 targets per game in games where he is fully healthy. Against Chicago, he should easily see seven. Make that three straight buys!