Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 7
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 6’s results:
|A.J. Brown||Top-24 WR||Buy||Buy|
|Chase Edmonds||Top-24 RB||Sell||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|Adam Thielen||Top 24 WR||Buy|
|Lamar Jackson||229 Passing Yards|
|Damien Harris||65 Rushing Yards|
|Stefon Diggs||88 Receiving Yards||Buy|
|2021 Overall||43% (6/14)||65% (11/17)||65% (11/17)||64% (23/36)|
A.J. Brown barely snuck his way into the Top-24 through a strong second half performance after being blanked in the first half, which may have had something to do with Julio Jones reaggravating his hamstring injury. Chase Edmonds was a non-factor in Week 6, and Adam Thielen had a fantastic game, finishing the week as the WR3. In view of these results, Mike, Jason and I went 2/3 in the Podcast Buy or Sell segment, and Andy went 1/3.
Meanwhile, my Bonus Buy or Sell did not go well. The Baltimore Ravens shockingly destroyed the Chargers without much down-field passing to speak of. I certainly didn’t see a 34-6 beatdown in the range of possibilities, but maybe I should have, as this was an instance of a west coast team traveling east. Also, Damien Harris surprisingly saw 18 carries in the game against Dallas, and it was equally surprising that the Dallas-NE game was a shootout. Thankfully, Stefon Diggs received 89 yards giving me a bit of luck after some badly missed calls regarding Harris and Jackson. Onto Week 7!
Week 7 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Start/Sit Decisions + TNF Preview, Buy or Sell”.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR) vs. PHI – Top 10 RB
Jason bought mentioning that Jacobs might be *spoiler alert* his start of the week. Andy also sold because he wants to feel out the new Raiders coaching staff before fully believing in Jacobs, mentioning that Jalen Richard and Kenyan Drake were used differently and more frequently in Week 6. Mike sold as well because the line is too high, and Jacobs’ longest run of the year is merely 15 yards.
I also will sell because the line is simply too high. Probability suggests that he doesn’t quite crack the top-10, even with six teams on bye.
Michael Pittman (WR, IND) @ SF – 5 receptions
Pittman has only two games this year with fewer than 6 catches, and 5 catches isn’t a ton, especially for him. I think I will jump on the bandwagon and also buy this line because I like the way Carson Wentz is playing (#1 Ranked QB in Week 6 according to passer rating).
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN) vs. KC – 3 Touchdowns
Andy and Jason both sold mentioning Derrick Henry‘s dominance. However, in our first disagreement of the week, Mike bought because he thinks the game script will require Tennessee to pass and keep up with Kansas City’s high-powered offense.
I am selling because Derrick Henry has dominated Titans touchdowns in 2021, and he will continue to do so. Tennessee knows that KC can score in bunches, so I think they will play keep away by riding their workhorse running back. I haven’t been impressed with Tannehill’s play this season, and he is likely without Julio. I think three TDs is a ton for him, especially with the way Derrick Henry is carrying this offense.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI) vs. HOU – 74 receiving yards
I am all over this line. Not only do we have the revenge game narrative, as this will be Hopkins first time playing Houston since being traded to Arizona, but we also have an advantageous cornerback matchup according to Mike Clay. Houston’s secondary is weak, and 75 yards seems low. Vegas probably thinks that Arizona will blow out Houston and won’t need to pass much, but Hopkins should still get enough early to exceed 74 yards.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA) vs. NO – 75 receiving yards
Unlike the similar Hopkins threshold, I am selling this one. Metcalf is sure to deal with Marshon Lattimore as a shadow corner. In addition, Seattle is still without Russell Wilson, and I don’t think Geno has the chops to help Metcalf overcome such strong cornerback coverage.
Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR) vs. DET – 1 Touchdown
My pathetic Detroit Lions head to Los Angeles to watch their old quarterback thrive in his new digs. Jared Goff may have a chip on his shoulder trying to prove something to his old employer, but he will need to play above himself in order to keep the Lions anywhere close. That’s because I anticipate that the Rams will score at will against Detroit. It’s hard to bet on a touchdown happening, but I am almost certain Henderson will find his way to get in the end zone at least once.