Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Week 6
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 5’s results:
|Damien Harris||Top-24 RB||Sell|
|Terry McLaurin||Top-15 WR||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|Diontae Johnson||6 catches|
|Zack Moss||1 touchdown|
|2021 Overall||45% (5/11)||64% (9/14)||64% (9/14)||64% (18/28)|
It was a brutal week for props considering two of the players were inactive come gameday. Calvin Ridley (personal matter) and Rob Gronkowski (ribs) both were on the buy/sell list for the week. Just like a sportsbook, those lines are now void and thus we can’t include them in our weekly numbers.
A Damien Harris fumble at the 1-inch line scored me a win over the three podcast hosts, as Harris finished RB34 on the week. Ignoring his injury situation, this weekly finish shows that Harris is a low-ceiling running back who needs touchdowns to make an impact. Regardless, I’ll take this Harris win because Diontae Johnson and Zack Moss didn’t deliver for my specific predictions, despite each having great weeks from a fantasy perspective. Notably, Johnson unusually did his damage in one deep bomb, rather than multiple dink-and-dunk catches, and Moss racked up yardage through the passing game, as opposed to finding the endzone. Finally, McLaurin had a top-15 wide receiver target share (11 targets), but he was shut down by the combination of Taylor Heinicke inaccuracy and Marshon Lattimore coverage.
Week 6 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Fantasy Draft Redo + TNF Preview, Buy or Sell”.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN) vs. BUF – Top-24 WR
Andy sold because Brown has not finished as a top 24 WR to date. Meanwhile, Jason bought mentioning that he would start Brown if he was on his fantasy team. Finally, Mike mentioned that game-script will likely force Tennessee to pass, meaning that Brown should be necessary for any comeback attempts. I will sell this line.
We know that Tre’Davious White shadows the opposing team’s top WR unless that player lines up in the slot, which Brown does do about 37% of the time. Brown didn’t look electric in his return from injury and he was on a snap count. All combined, I think he finishes outside the top 24.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI) @ CLE – Top-24 RB
Andy wasn’t confident enough in Edmonds’s health to buy this line, and Jason agreed, also mentioning the tough matchup against Cleveland. Mike sold for similar reasons. Cleveland has been tough on opposing running backs, but Edmonds doesn’t play like a normal running back as he does most of his damage through the air. Austin Ekeler, a similar running back in many respects, just destroyed Cleveland, but most of that damage occurred late in the game.
However, Edmonds is still fighting a hamstring injury. It didn’t affect his playing time in Week 5, as he played 61% of the snaps, which is about his season average. Still, I think the injury affected his effectiveness. Between another tough matchup and some health concerns, I will sell.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN) @ CAR – Top-24 WR
Andy sold mentioning the matchup against Carolina. Mike sold as well because the Vikings offense has not been great, and Jason also sold for the same reasons. Carolina’s defense has been solid in 2021, but it recently lost Jaycee Horn for the season. The Panthers’ best cover corner at this stage is probably A.J. Bouye, but he will likely stay in the slot. That’s a huge downgrade for K.J. Osborn, but not Thielen and Jefferson. I will buy that Thielen bounces back and finds his way into the endzone again.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) vs. LAC – 229 Passing Yards
Lamar has yet to throw for fewer than 235 yards this season, so 229 seems like money in the bank. The Ravens are running the ball less in 2021, largely out of necessity due to injuries in their running back room. They may try for more rushing against LAC, who has been a below-average rushing defense this season, but LAC just allowed Baker Mayfieldto throw for 305 yards in Week 5, a QB throwing far less than Lamar. I will gladly buy a line that isn’t just below Lamar’s season average, it’s below his season floor.
Damien Harris (RB, NE) vs. DAL – 65 rushing yards
Not only is Dallas allowing the fewest points to fantasy running backs, Damien Harris has all the trappings of a TRAP (trivial rush attempt percentage) back, meaning he isn’t involved in the passing game at all. That’s important because Dallas is currently a 4 point favorite. I think that line is low, as New England isn’t that great of a team. I think Dallas runs up the score, meaning more snaps for Brandon Bolden and less Damien Harris. I will sell Damien Harrisaccumulating 65 rushing yards.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF) @ TEN – 88 receiving yards
We’ve been waiting for the Diggs breakout game, and I predict it will happen here. Tennessee gives up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and I think Buffalo will feast on this defense. I’d buy this line even if it was up to 100, so I will gladly take the over on 88.