Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Week 5
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra interesting thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 4’s results:
|Jonathan Taylor||70 Rushing Yards||—||Buy|
|Marquise Brown||Top 24 WR||—|
|Miles Sanders||15 Opportunities||—||Sell||Sell|
|Josh Allen||274 Passing Yards||—||—||—|
|Josh Jacobs||40 Rushing Yards||—||—||—||Buy|
|Evan Engram||3 Receptions||—||—||—||Buy|
|2021 Overall||44% (4/9)||75%(9/12)||66% (8/12)||66% (16/24)|
Mike’s string of great predictions ended in Week 4, as Jason, Mike and I all correctly guessed only 1 out of 3 lines in the Podcast Buy or Sell segment (Andy was not on the Wednesday show last week). I did a bit better in the Bonus Buy or Sell, as I correctly predicted the Josh Jacobs line by the skin of my teeth (Jacobs rushed for exactly 40 yards). It’s disappointing that Josh Allen only managed 247 passing yards, but Buffalo obliterated Houston and didn’t need to throw for most of the second half (and the Bills rested Allen in the 4th quarter). Alas…
Jonathan Taylor ran wild over the Miami defense, who appears to be one of the worst rushing defenses at the moment. That is notable, but I also noted in my Trends and Reactions video that the Indy Offensive Line looked significantly better. Perhaps a healthy backup lineman is a better play for Indianapolis than a hobbled Quentin Nelson. Look for Indy’s OL to continue an upward trend.
Mike still has lead, but Jason and I are inching closing. Let’s see how we do in Week 5!
Week 5 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Buy or Sell + TNF Preview, Business Decisions”.
Damien Harris (RB, NE) @ HOU – Top 24 RB
Andy bought, mentioning that Harris is his favorite DFS play of the week. Mike also bought noting the matchups, but he did mention that New England does unpredictable things with their running backs. Jason also bought mentioning that Harris was in the top 24 running back in the first two weeks.
I am going to break with the Ballers and sell. Damien Harris does nothing in the passing game, and he will need to score a touchdown against Houston to get into the top 24. I am going to bet against the touchdown, and sell in hopes of gaining a pick on all three Ballers.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL) vs NYJ – 100 Receiving Yards
Jason sold because he believes that the Falcons will primarily run. Andy bought, mentioning that establishing the run with Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson may not be easy to do. Mike also bought because Ridley saw 13 targets last week and called for the breakout in Week 5.
UPDATE: I sell given that Calvin Ridley won’t play in this game due to a personal matter – news that I literally just received on my Apple Watch. Timing is everything people!
Terry McLaurin (WR, WFT) vs NO – Top 15 WR
Jason sold because the cornerback matchup against Marshon Lattimore should be very tough. Mike bought because his rankings have McLaurin inside the top 15, but Andy sold because the probability of a touchdown every week is low.
I agree with Jason and Andy. Marshon Lattimore is graded as a “tough matchup” and notably, Lattimore shadows, so McLaurin can’t avoid Lattimore by lining up in different parts of the field. This is going to be tough sledding for Washington, so I think selling is safe, especially with a line this high.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT) vs. DEN – 6 catches
Diontae Johnson seems to have ditched the drops this year, but his target volume remains very strong. Last week, he saw 13 targets, which was a season-high, but he’s seen double-digit targets in every game that he’s played. 10+ targets should lead to six catches. I like this line even more if Chase Claypool is out again. I recognize that Denver has strong corners and a strong defense, so temper your expectations on a huge day from Dionte, but I still think he catches the ball 6 or more times given his exceptional route running ability, even if those receptions come of short passes.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB) vs. MIA – 35 receiving yards.
A healthy Gronk gets 35 yards in his sleep (or without watching any film, as he so claims). However, Gronk isn’t healthy. You might call this cheating to sell this line, but if I am being offered free money at the casino, I will take it. Gronkowski hasn’t been ruled out of Week 5 at this point, so there is a possibility that he plays, and I look dumb here. But Gronk didn’t practice on Wednesday, and his injury sounded severe, including a punctured lung. I’ll bet that he rests because Tampa doesn’t need him to win this game against Miami, who has looked awful. There’s no reason to rush him back, so I will sell this line.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF) @ KC – 1 Touchdown
Betting on a touchdown is almost always a bad idea, unless, of course, the over/under is nearly 57 points, like it is in this game. Moss is the preferred goal-line back or Buffalo, and he’s been getting more touchdown opportunities as Buffalo calls fewer goal-line rushes for Josh Allen. Moss has scored twice in the last two weeks, albeit in blowouts. Still, I am going to “stay in these flames” and guess that 6 of those 57 points come from Zack Moss.