Fantasy Football Buy Or Sell: Week 4
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra interesting thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 3’s results:
|George Kittle||13 Fantasy Points||BUY||BUY|
|James Robinson||15 Touches||BUY||BUY||BUY|
|Robert Woods||Top-24 WR||SELL||SELL||SELL||SELL|
|Kyler Murray||273 Pass Yards||—||—||—||BUY|
|Kyle Pitts||49 Rec Yards||—||—||—|
|Terry McLaurin||80 Rec Yards||—||—||—||SELL|
|2021 Overall||44% (4/9)||88% (8/9)||77% (7/9)||72% (13/18)|
Mike swept the Week 3 Buy/Sell Podcast segment, with Andy, Jason, and myself all getting 2 out of 3. 66% was also how I finished the week, totaling 4 of 6.
Regarding the props, George Kittle barely surpassed 13 fantasy points (13.6 in .5 PPR), but alas, a line is a line, and Jason and I caught the wrong end of the luck in this game. Notably, Kittle ran 36 routes, which was a season-high (29 in Week 2 and a mere 16 in Week 1). Kittle increasing his involvement in the 49ers’ passing game!
Tre’Davious White did indeed shut down Terry McLaurin, as predicted, so make a note to yourself about #1 receivers facing Buffalo.
And finally, it took until the 4th quarter for Kyle Pitts to see even one target, so my Pitts prop lost epically. If only I had listened to myself predicting a Kyle Pitts letdown in 2021. That said, Pitts did play a full set of snaps and only ran 4 fewer routes than Calvin Ridley, so I don’t blame you for believing that better days are ahead.
Moving on to Week 4!
Week 4 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Trending or Ending + TNF Preview, Bust-o-rama”.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) vs. MIA – 70 Rushing Yards
Jason sold, noting the Quinten Nelson injury and a tougher matchup vs. Miami, while Mike bought believing that Taylor will bounce back in Week 4 after a rough few games.
Rotoviz actually has Miami as the 6th easiest team to run on, refuting Jason’s belief about the matchup, but nevertheless, I am also going to sell. It’s not the Nelson injury that scares me (although that certainly doesn’t help), it’s the Wentz injury. Tennessee didn’t respect Wentz’s ability to bounce around in the pocket, like he normally does, given the two injured ankles. I think Wentz remains limited, which limits Taylor’s opportunities, like last week (only 10 carries in Week 3)
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL) vs. DEN – Top-24 WR
Jason sold because Rashod Bateman was activated, and Jason believed that Bateman would take away enough of the passing pie from Hollywood to cause him to dip below the WR24. Mike also sold.
I agree with Mike and Jason. The addition of Bateman is worth monitoring, but after a near meltdown in Detroit, I think Baltimore gets back to what it does best: running the ball and throwing mostly to the tight end position.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI) vs. KC – 15 opportunities
Last week, the Eagles got boat-raced by the Cowboys, leading to 6 total opportunities for Sanders. Still, Mike bought believing that the Eagles coaching staff would right the ship after an awful showing on Monday Night. Jason sold in an effort to catch up to Mike’s Buy or Sell lead.
I am again going to agree with Jason. Miles Sanders appears to be the plus and neutral game-script running back, and if the Eagles get down, they use Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. I think the Chiefs take out some frustrations on Philadelphia, causing another strongly negative game script.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) vs. HOU – 274 Passing Yards
This one is an easy buy for me, as the Houston passing defense currently ranks last in giving up points to the quarterback position. Buffalo isn’t afraid to throw the ball in positive game scripts, so I see no reason why Allen doesn’t easily surpass 300 passing yards against Houston.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV) vs. LAC – 40 rushing yards
I am taking a risk here because Jacobs may not play at all due to injury. But, I think that he will play and roll over the Chargers run defense. The Chargers run defense has been very bad so far, and Las Vegas will take advantage of that. Will it be Peyton Barber or Jacobs? Will they share the load? I am risking that Jacobs is still the guy, but the line is so low that it’s worth the gamble.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG) vs. – 3 receptions
New Orleans is a neutral matchup for tight ends, so why I am betting on three receptions for Engram? For one, several NYG pass catchers are already injured, and Engram is coming off an injury. He was brought along slowly in Week 3, only playing 56% of the snaps, but in those 39 snaps, he ran 30 routes and saw six targets. Also, the NYG-ATL game was generally a positive or neutral game script for New York, meaning the passing game wasn’t as necessary. I probably would have bought this line even if it was five receptions. Welcome back Evan!