Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 15
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 14’s results:
|Russell Wilson||Top 10 QB||Buy||Buy|
|Marquise Brown||65 Receiving Yards||Sell|
|Saquon Barkley||80 Total Yards||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Derek Carr||290 Passing Yards||–||–||–||Sell|
|Tyreek Hill||80 Receiving Yards||–||–||–|
|Alvin Kamara||48 Rushing Yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|2021 Results||55% (21/38)||48% (20/41)||55% (22/41)||63% (53/84)|
Andy has been on a roll lately, after some early struggles, and he crushed Week 14 as well, going 3-for-3! On the flip side of that strong performance was Mike, who sadly, went 0-for-3. Jason is certainly disappointed with his 1-for-3 showing, but the lines here were clearly difficult considering the very differing opinions between the four of us in each Podcast line.
Recapping the week, Russell Wilson finished the week QB8, mostly from successfully finding Tyler Lockett in several big spots. Marquise Brown only saw 41 receiving yards, but his output was surely hindered by Lamar Jackson‘s injury. And, Saquon Barkley rumbled his way to 95 total yards.
I’m satisfied with my 66% showing on the week. I was a bit unlucky with Tyreek’s line. He was dominating, along with the Chiefs as a whole. But sadly, this game was out-of-hand by halftime, and the Chiefs went very run-heavy in the second half, justifiably so. Tyreek came close, accumulating 76 receiving yards, but not enough to exceed the 80-yard line. Kamara looked healthy, and dominated; his 120 yards absolutely destroyed the line of 48, which accounted for risk. Derek Carr‘s 263 passing yards weren’t enough to win against Kansas City or exceed the 290 threshold. All in all, a decent week for me.
Let’s keep it going in Week 15!
Week 15 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Week 15 Buy or Sell + Playoff Prep, Dynasty Download”.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC) @ LAC – 70 Receiving Yards
Ugh, what a frustrating second half of the season it’s been for Travis Kelce. He lost his TE1 status, which he hasn’t missed in many years.
Jason noted that the Chargers are not great against tight ends, so he bought. Mike also bought arguing that Travis will not have three bad games in a row. Finally, Andy sold, finding the line too high for his liking.
Even though it’s hard to disagree with “Hot-streak Holloway” at the moment, I will buy. I think this game is a shootout between two good offenses. The targets have been there for Kelce lately (8, 8, and 4 over the last three weeks), but teams have keyed in to stop him. I don’t think the Chargers have the personnel to stop him because Derwent James will be focused on stopping Tyreek Hill.
James Robinson (RB, JAX) vs. HOU – Top 20 RB
Andy bought because the Jaguars are favorites and playing at home. Jason also believed that Robinson will have more than six touches this week because the game script will be entirely different than the lopsided loss in Week 14. Mike also bought, noting that Urban Meyer is feeling pressure to get Robinson the ball.
I also will buy. Robinson played 65% of the snaps in Week 14, so the lack of touches was not completely related to injury, even though Robinson has been somewhat limited since the injury. I think the Jaguars get him involved more heavily, and he has a great week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF) vs. CAR – 7 Receptions
Andy worries that the game will not be competitive, and Buffalo won’t have to throw the ball much to win. Jason sold, mentioning that the Panthers’ defense is strong against wide receivers. Meanwhile, Mike bought because Buffalo basically always throws.
I sell. I think Diggs has a good game, I just think that 7 receptions is too high of a line.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) vs. CAR – 50 Rushing yards
I’ve got to say, I was surprised to see the line for Allen’s rushing yards this high just days after the world saw him photographed wearing a walking boot. I would not be at all surprised to see Allen run less because he’s limited by the injury. I think he will play, and he might run a little out of instinct, but the injury limits him. I sell.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI) @ DET – 53 receiving yards
The news out of Arizona today is that DeAndre Hopkins is getting a second opinion on his injured leg. That doesn’t sound promising, and I think Hopkins sits for this game against the Lions. The Cardinals certainly do not need their best receiver to defeat the decimated Lions secondary, which just lost Jerry Jacobs, who was having a wonderful season as an undrafted free agent. As such, the secondary receivers are likely to step up and destroy the Lions’ beat up and talent-wanting secondary. As such, I will buy 53 yards for Kirk, who should be the primary beneficiary if Hopkins misses.
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) vs. ATL – 56 rushing yards
I am honestly a bit shocked that this number is as high as it is, with Mitchell’s status for Week 15 remaining uncertain. I think this line is indicative of just how much respect Elijah Mitchell now deserves. If he were definitely playing, this line would probably be closer to 90 rushing yards. I am going to buy this line, believing that Mitchell plays, that he gets tons of opportunities, and that he does very well in that magnificent San Francisco running game.