Fantasy Football: Buy or Sell Week 14
Longtime listeners of the Fantasy Footballers will surely recognize the segment “Buy or Sell”, as this recurring segment appears regularly both in-season and offseason. But, if you are unfamiliar with this segment, Andy, Mike and Jason regularly discuss whether they agree or disagree that a given player will meet or exceed some given statistical threshold. For example, the Footballers might discuss whether they think D’Andre Swift will finish as a top-12 running back in 2021, and the Ballers who agree with this statement will “buy” it, whereas disbelievers will “sell”. These discussions are akin to “prop” bets, and they are a lot of fun.
Throughout the season I will recap Andy, Mike, and Jason’s “Buy or Sell” discussions on the Podcast and add my two cents to each line. And as an added bonus I will discuss three extra thresholds. Generally, these props will come from fantasy website projections, so they aren’t meant to be easy!
These predictions are meant to drive engagement! So, let me know if you hate or appreciate my predictions either in the comments here or on Twitter: @NateHenryFF.
Buy or Sell Scoreboard
There is no value in predictions without accountability! So, as promised, I will keep score for myself and Andy, Mike, and Jason (whether they like it or not!) Here are Week 13’s results:
|Lamar Jackson||Top 5 QB||Sell||Sell||Sell|
|David Montgomery||Top 15 RB||Buy|
|Hunter Renfrow||Top 20 WR||Buy||Buy||Buy|
|Taysom Hill||26 Rushing Yards||–||–||–||Buy|
|Adam Thielen||1 Touchdown||–||–||–|
|Stefon Diggs||85 receiving yards||–||–||–||Sell|
|2021 Results||51% (18/35)||53% (20/38)||55% (21/38)||63% (49/78)|
I’m doing quite well lately – another 5-for-6 week (and Michigan won the Big Ten Championship, and the Lions didn’t ruin my weekend for once)! Andy hit 67% for the week, while Mike and Jason didn’t do quite as well. Lamar Jackson was stifled by the Pittsburgh defense, David Montgomery found the end zone on his way to the RB2 finish, and Hunter Renfrow‘s nine catches on ten targets was enough to finish as WR14.
In my Bonus Buy Sell, I also faired quite well, going two for three. It took a little while, but eventually Taysom Hill racked up the yardage on the ground. His 101 rushing yards smashed the line of 26. Nasty weather also helped me correctly guess that Stefon Diggs wouldn’t hit 85 receiving yards, so that was lucky. On the flip side of the lucky coin, Adam Thielen exited the game against the Lions early due to injury, and he couldn’t score a touchdown in his limited playing time. Say la vie.
Time to crush Week 14!
Week 14 Podcast Buy or Sell Lines
Let’s dive into Buy or Sell from Wednesday’s episode: “Week 14 Strategy + Buy or Sell, Catch the Fire”.
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA) @ HOU – Top-10 QB
Andy bought because he saw progress from Russ last week. Jason agreed that progress was made, but noted that there is still something off about Russ’s game, as he missed a few easy throws. As a result, Jason sold. Mike agreed with Jason and sold as well.
I will buy this line, like Andy. The Seahawks do not have any running game without Chris Carson healthy, so Russell Wilson will have to throw, even against the lowly Texans. Russ is looking better after the finger injury, and Houston is ranked the best matchup for quarterbacks, so I think he finds his way into the top 10.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL) vs. CLE – 65 receiving yards
Hollywood has not hit 65 yards since week 9, and Andy noted that Lamar has been hyper-targeting Mark Andrews, so Andy sold. Conversely, Jason bought because Hollywood is so talented. Mike noted that Lamar has not played well at all, has made terrible decisions, and Lamar is pressing. Despite a great discussion about why the Ravens offense isn’t clicking, Mike bought.
This line is tough for me, but I will buy. The Ravens’ running game has not been strong, so Lamar is throwing it plenty. He isn’t playing great, that’s true, but Brown is seeing enough targets to get to 65 yards against an easier matchup in Cleveland.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG) @ LAC – 80 Total Yards
Mike noted that the Chargers’ defense is a run funnel, but nevertheless, he sold. Meanwhile, Jason and Andy bought this line, even if it’s by the hair of Saquon’s teeth – Jason specifically predicting 40 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards.
I am going to buy this line. Certainly the Giants offense is likely to be slowed by starting Jake Fromm at quarterback, but I think that means Joe Judge leans on Saquon heavily to support the young quarterback.
Nate Henry’s Bonus Buy or Sell
Derek Carr (QB, LV) @ KC – 290 Passing yards
The last time Derek Carr played the Chiefs, he threw for 261 yards, and Kansas City’s defense has improved. Last week, they held Teddy Bridgewater to 257 yards on 40 passing attempts. Also, 290 is above Carr’s season average, so I will sell this passing line.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) vs. OAK – 80 receiving yards
In this same Raiders-Chiefs game, I will buy 80 receiving yards for Tyreek Hill. Mike Clay notes that Tyreek Hill has an advantageous matchup against Oakland’s corner backs Nate Hobbs and Brandon Facyson. When I follow Mike’s advice in this series, I usually prevail, so I will continue to trust one of the best in the business.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) @ NYJ – 48 rushing yards
Even without the news that Mark Ingram has been placed on the COVID reserve list due to a positive test, I would have bought this line. The low line likely bakes in some risk that Kamara may miss yet another game, but the most recent reports say that Kamara is back at practice today, which is a good indicator that he will play. Buy buy buy!!