Three Players Likely to Lose Value in Dynasty After 2020 (Fantasy Football)
Dynasty fantasy football is like a stock market. You have to know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em so to speak. Hold onto a veteran too long, and they’re stuck on your roster with no trade value. Sell on a prospect too early, and you could miss out on the next big star. Here are five players I’m fading in dynasty startup drafts given their ADP and the fact that these players are likely to lose value after 2020. Dynasty ADP is taken from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Editor’s note: Looking for dynasty rankings? Be sure to buy the Ultimate Draft Kit, where you can find Andy, Mike, and Jason’s dynasty and rookie rankings.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 25th overall, RB11
Listen, I like Aaron Jones as much as the next guy, but let’s be honest. He’s going to regress in 2020 after scoring a whopping 19 TD from scrimmage in 2019. Take a look at this stat from the Ultimate Draft Kit’s Red Zone Report. Aaron Jones had 19 carries inside the 10-yard line and scored 11 TD on those attempts, good for a 58% success rate. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey had 32 rush attempts inside the 10 and scored just 10 TDs, good for only a 31% success rate.
After trading up to select Jordan Love in the first round of the NFL Draft, the Packers took rookie RB, A.J. Dillon, in the second round when they had obvious holes on the depth chart at many other positions. Matt LaFleur is putting his stamp on this offense in a big way, one that could negatively affect Jones in 2020. In 2018 with a different coaching staff, the Packers ran the fewest run plays in the entire NFL (20.8 per game). In 2019, with LaFleur at the helm, the offense ranked 16th in rush attempts per game (25.4). Moreover, the offense ranked 19th in plays per game last season and ranked 8th in 2018. The offense is getting slower, and the team is rushing more.
So, why is this a negative for a running back? The offense, in general, is likely to be less efficient, run fewer plays, and A.J. Dillon profiles similar to that of another big framed RB…one Mr. Derrick Henry. Now, I’m not saying their skill level is the same by any means, but Matt LeFleur was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2018. Does he see envision his offense to run through a bigger RB and a ‘ground and pound’ approach? The history with Derrick Henry, the slower-paced offense, the uptick in rushing percentage, and the selection of Dillon in the second round says maybe.
Aaron Jones is an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season. It’s possible he finds himself on a new offense in 2021 after the team invested heavy capital in the rookie out of Boston College. Going at the back of the 2nd round, the price is too rich given the uncertainty for what lies ahead.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets
ADP: 37th overall, RB15
Was Le’Veon Bell an elite fantasy option when he was in Pittsburgh? Yes, he was. But there’s one big problem with this draft price – Le’Veon Bell plays for the NFL’s 31st ranked offense in 2019, the New York Jets. Bell had a ton of volume last year, so he was fine for fantasy and will likely be fine as a back end RB2 in 2020 once again simply because of volume. However, in 2020, the floor could fall out from underneath Bell, who will be 29 after the 2020 season.
Despite signing a 4-year/$52 million contract in the 2019 offseason, Bell can be cut with just a $4 million dead cap hit after the 2020 season. There have been rumblings out of New York that Adam Gase wasn’t a big fan of the Bell signing last offseason. Could we see Gase continue to have a negative influence on the rest of Bell’s career? As we’ve seen in recent years, players on an Adam Gase offense continue to underperform for fantasy.
In addition to the concerns surrounding the offense and the coaching in New York, Bell’s advanced metrics were…not good last year. Bell averaged 3.2 yards per attempt last year while finding the end zone just four total times in 2019. He ranked 26th in the NFL (minimum 100 rush attempts) in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating metric, and he posted the lowest yards per touch in his entire career.
The Jets did invest in a rookie RB out of Florida, Lamical Perine, in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. His role will likely be in a complementary role behind Bell, so his role is secure in 2020, but does it matter? He’s a declining dynasty asset who isn’t the same player he was three or four years ago. There’s no way Bell remains RB15 in dynasty start-up drafts come 2021. Simply put, Bell’s best days are behind him.
Editor’s Note: For more on Bell’s outlook, check out Lauren Carpenter’s What to Expect from Le’Veon Bell in 2020.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 46th overall, WR24
T.Y. Hilton once led the NFL in receiving, but that was in 2016 with Andrew Luck under center. Fast forward to 2020, and a lot has changed for Hilton and the Colts. T.Y. turns 31 in November, and he’s got an aging quarterback whose best days are behind him in Philip Rivers. After spending 16 years with the Chargers and at age 38, it’s fair to question how Rivers will do transitioning to a new team and a new city in Indianapolis. Additionally, there’s uncertainty under center for the Colts beyond 2020 with Rivers only signed to a one-year deal.
Hilton himself has been productive over the past few seasons, but 2019 was a different story. He played in just 10 games missing time with a quad injury as well as a calf strain. Research shows that each year that passes, a player is 1.3x more likely to sustain a soft tissue injury after having a soft tissue injury in their injury history. I discussed this in much greater detail in the injury report section of the UDK. Hilton now has injury and QB concerns, is aging, and he still carries a high price tag in dynasty startups.
He’s going before WRs like Terry McLaurin, Allen Robinson, and Robert Woods, among others. Hilton may be considered a bounce-back candidate for 2020 redraft leagues, but in dynasty, he’s very unlikely to ever be valued as a top 24 option ever again, especially when you consider he’s only under contract with the Colts through 2020. The future of the Colts lies with 2019 2nd round pick, Parris Campbell, and 2020 2nd round pick, Michael Pittman Jr.