2021 AFC Win Totals with Betz & Borg (Fantasy Football)

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About a month ago, Kyle and I wrote up our favorite NFL win totals for teams that we like to hit the over and for teams that we like to hit the under. Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, the NFL landscape has changed quite a bit, and that means the outlook for several teams has as well. With new Vegas win totals now available on several sportsbooks, Kyle and I dove into our favorite bets for the AFC on the most recent episode of the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast.

AFC East
Team Kyle’s Schedule Adj. Win Proj. (3.15.21) DK Sportsbook (4.1.21) DK Sportsbook (5.5.21) OVER OVER Break-Even % UNDER UNDER Break-Even %
Buffalo Bills 12 10.5 10.5 -155 60.78% 127 44.05%
New England Patriots 8.5 9 9 -134 57.26% 110 47.62%
Miami Dolphins 7.5 9 9 -143 58.85% 118 45.87%
New York Jets 5.5 6.5 6.5 133 42.92% -162 61.83%

Division Winner Props: BUF (-150), MIA (+333), NE (+333), NYJ (+2000)

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has a lot of continuity returning to their roster from last season. Their coaching staff remains intact, Josh Allen is back under center, and their key pieces from an incredible 2020 season are all back on the roster. Coming off a 13-3 season, the most obvious bet here is probably the over, but Miami got better, and New England returns multiple Covid opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball, suggesting their path to an AFC East crown will be much more difficult. At -155 juice, it’s an expensive play and may not be worth it.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins continue to make smart football decisions and put themselves in a position to succeed. However, the middling projected win total suggests market appears to be unsure what to make of this team, largely in part due to the uncertainty of Tua Tagovailoa. After signing Will Fuller to a team-friendly one-year deal and drafting Jaylen Waddle with the 6th overall pick in the NFL Draft, the team is at least giving up a chance to succeed. Nine wins seem about right, but if you like over on their total, +333 odds to win the AFC East is the best value play here.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Dolphins to win the AFC East (+333), Dolphins to make the playoffs (+125)

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New England Patriots
Imagine ever betting against Bill Belichick…well, that’s exactly what I did back in April, but the rationale there was that the line was likely to move. I got it at U9 at +118, and it’s now at +110 for the same wager. New England projects to improve drastically on the defensive side of the ball, as they’re getting back some key pieces who opted out in 2020, and they upgraded their front seven with Matt Judon via free agency and Alabama’s Christian Barmore via the Draft. However, they also project to be one of the league’s worst offenses in football.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

New York Jets
The Jets are…the Jets. This team should be in much better hands with improved leadership under Robert Saleh, but it’s still an inexperienced roster with a rookie QB under center in Zach Wilson. There will be better days ahead for Gang Green, and with their win total sitting at 6.5, the under is probably the only play that makes sense. That said, the -162 juice is far too expensive for a 17 game season.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

AFC North
Team Kyle’s Schedule Adj. Win Proj. (3.15.21) DK Sportsbook (4.1.21) DK Sportsbook (5.5.21) OVER OVER Break-Even % UNDER UNDER Break-Even %
Cleveland Browns 10.5 9.5 10.5 118 45.87% -143 58.85%
Baltimore Ravens 11 11 10.5 -155 60.78% 127 44.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 8.5 8.5 -118 45.87% -104 50.98%
Cincinnati Bengals 5.5 6.5 6.5 -110 52.38% -110 52.38%

Division Winner Props: BAL (+120), CLE (+150), PIT (+400), CIN (+2000)

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are one of the smartest teams in football and have hit 11+ wins in back-to-back seasons. Now, it’s a 17-game season and the implied line seems to present some value on the over at 10.5. Baltimore should once again compete for the AFC North title, making the over the most likely outcome here. However, I personally bet the under on 11 wins back in April when the line was U11 at +108, which seemed like good value at the time and carried a strong possibility of a push.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Over 10.5 wins (-155), Ravens to win the AFC (+625)

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Cleveland Browns
Just two years ago, betting on anything positive to happen for the Browns seemed like a sick joke. Now, the Browns are one of the sharpest teams in football under the leadership of the 2020 offensive coach of the year Kevin Stefanski at the helm. This offense features tons of continuity, and the defense addressed their two biggest weaknesses in the Draft by adding Northwestern’s stud CB Greg Newsome and college football’s Butkus Award winner and consensus first-round talent, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out of Notre Dame in round two. Look for Cleveland to make some noise in 2021.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Over 10.5 wins (+118), Browns to win the AFC North (+150)

Pittsburgh Steelers
Imagine taking a running back in the first round of the NFL Draft thinking that’s going to solve the running game. Well, that’s exactly what Pittsburgh did despite having a bottom-five unit in football. This looks like a team to fade in 2021, and while they do still have a top-tier defense, projecting defensive performance year over year is difficult to do and has been shown to be less predictive than the offensive side of the ball. With Big Ben on his last leg and Mason Rudolph as the backup, there’s plenty of downside to Pittsburgh in 2021.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-104), Steelers to miss the playoffs (-190)

Mark Alberti/ Icon Sportswire

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals look like an exciting team for fantasy football, but in terms of real-life NFL performance, the jury is still out on Zac Taylor. Joe Burrow is coming off a significant knee injury, the offensive line still needs work, and the defense lost their best perimeter defender in William Jackson via free agency.  That said, their win total of 6.5 seems about right without a clear edge on either side.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

AFC South
Team Kyle’s Schedule Adj. Win Proj. (3.15.21) DK Sportsbook (4.1.21) DK Sportsbook (5.5.21) OVER OVER Break-Even % UNDER UNDER Break-Even %
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 10 10 110 47.62% -134 57.26%
Tennessee Titans 9.5 9.5 9.5 133 42.92% -162 61.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 6.5 6.5 110 47.62% -134 57.26%
Houston Texans 4.5 4.5 4 -110 52.38% -110 52.38%

Division Winner Props: IND (+100), TEN (+130), JAX (+700), HOU (+2200)

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Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ implied win total at 10 seems about right. The Jaguars and the Texans project as two of the worst teams in football, so it’s not difficult to envision a scenario for Indy to pile up three to four wins against their basement-dwelling division foes. We’ll also be looking to fade Tennessee (more on that soon), suggesting the Colts have one of the easiest paths to wins against their own division. Because of that, this is a play on the over or a straight pass for us.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Colts to win AFC South (+100) or Pass

Tennessee Titans
We were fading the Titans back in April, and we’re still fading the Titans due to their insane efficiency they’ve shown over the last two seasons. They’ve ranked 3rd and 1st in terms of yards per TD over the last two seasons and now they’ve lost underrated WR2 Corey Davis, run after-the-catch monster Jonnu Smith, and more importantly, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who helped to revitalize Ryan Tannehill‘s career. With this defense also projecting to be a bottom 10 unit again in 2021, this is one of our strongest takes all offseason.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Titans under 9.5 wins (-162), Titans to miss the playoffs (+107)

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags have a bright future with Trevor Lawrence now under center, and for fantasy football, this is going to be a fun offense with lots of talent on that side of the ball. However, the defense still has many holes to fill, and Urban Meyer is coaching in the NFL for the first time in his life. Clearly, the Jaguars aren’t winning a Super Bowl this year, but this division is so bad, that there may actually be some value on them to win the AFC South as a long shot. Be sure to listen to the podcast for the full analysis on this one before calling us crazy.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Jaguars to win the AFC South (+700)

Houston Texans
What is there to say? The Texans have one of the worst rosters the NFL has ever seen and are still trying to recover after the team has been dismantled over the last few seasons. Deshaun Watson may not play another snap for Houston ever again, and their win total is four in a 17 game season, making it virtually unplayable. But hey, that Davis Mills pick in the third round was pretty sweet, right?

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

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AFC West
Team Kyle’s Schedule Adj. Win Proj. (3.15.21) DK Sportsbook (4.1.21) DK Sportsbook (5.5.21) OVER OVER Break-Even % UNDER UNDER Break-Even %
Kansas City Chiefs 12.5 12 12 -121 54.75% 100 50.00%
Denver Broncos 7 7.5 9 110 47.62% -134 57.26%
Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 9 9 -110 52.38% -110 52.38%
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 7.5 7 -110 52.38% -110 52.38%

Division Winner Props: KC (-305), DEN (+500), LAC (+600), LV (+1600)

Kansas City Chiefs
Dating back to 2013 when Andy Reid became the head coach in KC, the Chiefs have hit the over on their projected win total every single season. At 12 wins, it’s the highest implied total in the AFC, so there may not be a ton of value on the over, but I can’t imagine betting the under against Patrick Mahomes. If you want to be the over on the best QB in football with one of the best coaches in football, no one is going to fault you.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass or Over 12 wins (-121)

Denver Broncos
Back in April, I bet the over 7.5 wins on Denver at +100 but after just a month, their implied total is all the way up to 9 wins, making it unplayable at this point. From top to bottom, this is one of the most talented rosters on paper…except for one position. As of now, it looks like Denver will enter 2021 with either Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater under center, and it’s difficult to back these signal-callers, especially at 9 wins.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Pass

Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a lot to like about the Chargers in 2021. Let’s start with the offensive line, which quietly has become one of the best units on paper in the entire NFL. The team added C Corey Linsley and LG Matt Feiler in free agency, returns 2020 signing RT Bryan Bulaga, and then had stud LT prospect Rashawn Slater fall into their laps at pick 13 via the NFL Draft. Justin Herbert will look to take a step forward in year two, but he’ll have to do it with a new offensive coordinator and head coach, giving some uncertainty to the situation. Recently, the Chargers have failed to live up to the hype as they seem to disappoint most seasons, so betting over nine wins doesn’t feel awesome. Instead, why not look at a value play here as a long shot should anything happen with the Chiefs.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Chargers to win the AFC West (+700), Chargers to make the playoffs (+149)

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Las Vegas Raiders
Oh Vegas, what is happening? Largely considered one of the best offensive lines in football over the last two to three seasons, the front office decided to dismantle the line this offseason then sign Kenyan Drake to starter money despite drafting Josh Jacobs in round one just two years ago. With a defense that again looks like a bottom 10 unit on paper, and a front office shall we say making suboptimal decisions, this looks like a team to fade in 2021. Derek Carr is a serviceable staring QB, but this looks like a lot to overcome on his own. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Betz and Borg’s Take: Raiders under 7 wins (-110); Note: if you can find 7.5 wins that is the preferred line

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