Week 13 Underperformers & Overachievers (Fantasy Football)
This year, I am thankful for…Upsets.
And Thanksgiving was chock-full of them.
The Panthers stun the Rams. The Texans smite the Colts. The Cowboys shock the Chiefs, the Bears surprise the Eagles, and the Bengals stupefy (I’ve run out of “s” words) the Ravens!
What more could we ask for?
me watching joe burrow play again after weeks pic.twitter.com/sHVDd0I4qN
— cha (@bu9ckers) November 28, 2025
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 13 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: AJ Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
TPRR: 40%
Stat Line: 10 receptions (12 targets), 132 yards receiving, two TDs
Fantasy Points: 30.2 (WR1)
Same story, different year.
While the Philadelphia fanbase is booing their Super Bowl-defending, three-seed Eagles, AJ Brown is reading self-help books and sideline-tweeting his displeasure for his own personal usage.
And once again, it worked.
AJ was hyper-targeted in a rare positive game script, racking up ten receptions for 132 yards and two TDs. This was the vintage AJ we’ve waited for all season, and with the fantasy playoffs on the line, it couldn’t have come at a better time.
For the record, he’s not wrong. He and DeVonta Smith are criminally underused in this offense. But at the same time, this is a team sport, and this team (mostly) continues to find ways to win.
So sure, his usage and performance skyrocketed this week, but they were also upset by the now NFC-leading Bears.
Shouldn’t this be when we’re upset?
AJ Brown when the Eagles lose but he had 10 catches, 132 yards, and 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/5W3kRMvYio
— GhettoGronk (@GhettoGronk) November 29, 2025
Underperformer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
TPRR: 11%
Stat Line: two receptions (four targets), 23 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 3.3 (WR71)
JSN was due for a bad game and was quickly game-scripted out of this one.
Poor undrafted Max Brosmer watched his NFL career start and finish this week, “leading” the Vikings to zero points, four interceptions, and a comedic pick-six that still might compete with Younghoe Koo‘s field goal for the leader of this week’s “Not Top 10.”
I've watched and played football for over 50 years and never witnessed what the Giants kicker just did.
— Jeff Carlton (@JeffWCarlton) December 2, 2025
JSN was simply not necessary in this one, as Seattle’s defense dominated this once-feared offense.
Minnesota can be a cold, dark place this time of year, but I’d imagine that feeling has been heightened quite a bit this year.
Oh no Max Brosmer…
Candidate for funniest interception of the year pic.twitter.com/uEnlUKTtXG
— NFL Interceptions (@interceptnfl) November 30, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders)
% of Team Carries: 83.3%
% Target Share: 26.1%
% Team Yards: 39.1%
Stat Line: 15 attempts, 31 rushing yards | six receptions, eight targets, 30 yards
Fantasy Points: 9.1 (RB34)
Although it didn’t quite result in the fantasy finish you’d hope for, there is clearly a bright career ahead for Ashton Jeanty.
With nothing on the line this season (except maybe Pete Carroll’s job), this team seems committed to riding Jeanty into the ground. There is no competition whatsoever in the backfield, and with eight targets this week, Geno Smith seems highly content to ride off into the sunset with a Jeanty check down every other play.
GM John Spytek may have fooled the masses with his pre-draft comments, but his statements about having more “holes to fill” have become more prominent than ever.
Ashton Jeanty is averaging 2.9 YPC over his last 7 games.
Someone get him an offensive line 😭 pic.twitter.com/gJZxDtpNh8
— Underdog (@Underdog) December 1, 2025
Underperformer: Sean Tucker & Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
% of Team Carries: 14.8% (combined)
% Target Share: 10.7% (combined)
% Team Yards: 10.4% (combined)
Stat Line: four attempts, seven rushing yards | three receptions (three targets), 22 yards (combined)
Fantasy Points: 4.4 (combined)
With Bucky Irving‘s health in question, there was a lot of uncertainty as to how this backfield would shake out in Week 13. As it turns out, there was no competition at all.
Bucky relegated his colleagues back to the bench, dominating touches and finishing as the RB14 on the week. He ended up with 19 touches for 81 all-purpose yards and one TD, putting any question of health to rest.
Look for White to resume his role as the passing down back, but make no mistake, this is Bucky’s backfield for your playoff run. With the Saints, Falcons, Dolphins, and Panthers (twice) remaining, he very well could be a league winner.
Welcome back, Bucky Irving. pic.twitter.com/ROcfHSNtA4
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 30, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Dontayvion Wicks (Green Bay Packers)
xFP: 16.9
Fantasy Points: 25 (WR3)
Everyone’s favorite 2024 Sleeper has finally broken out!
All jokes aside, Dontayvion Wicks earned his turkey leg, racking up 94 yards and two TDs on six receptions against Detroit. What was even more encouraging than this career-best (fantasy) performance was the trust of Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur with the game on the line, dialing him up for a beautiful contested catch on fourth-and-game.
Green Bay simply has too many mouths to feed for Wicks to provide weekly relevance, but if Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed remain sidelined next week, he should be in FLEX consideration against Chicago’s banged-up secondary.
Matt LaFleur was so proud of Dontayvion Wicks 💚 pic.twitter.com/xia5PEIxYp
— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2025
Underperformer: Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
xFP: 16.1
Fantasy Points: 10.1 (RB27)
It’s rare to have Jahmyr Gibbs in the “Underperformer” spotlight, but it’s also rare for the NFL’s best RB (in my opinion) to post RB3 numbers.
After an epic 264-yard performance last week, the Packers held Gibbs to a modest 3.74 yards per touch. Their defense has been fairly hit-or-miss compared to the elite unit we expected, but they have certainly hit their stride recently, which is the most important time of year to do so.
Similar to JSN, Gibbs was due for a bad game, and this shouldn’t come as a surprise against a solid division rival.
You have nothing to fear, however, as the Lions need him more than ever to fight for their playoff lives. With David Montgomery averaging just 8.3 touches/game over the past three weeks (13.1 in the nine prior), the Jahmyr Gibbs takeover has finally begun.
Jahmyr Gibbs is special, man. pic.twitter.com/YeuytmMdUA
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 17, 2025
Thank you all for being here!
We wish you a wonderful Holiday Season, but more importantly, best of luck in your upcoming playoffs!