Week 12 Overperformers & Underachievers (Fantasy Football)
The trade deadline has passed, and we have officially entered the most important part of the NFL season.
The Chiefs have begun their regularly scripted end-of-season run (you heard it here first), Jahmyr Gibbs proved himself a god amongst men, and Jameis Winston channeled his inner Derrick Henry to add to what will be the most entertaining compilation of any player in NFL history.
JAMEIS WINSTON RECEIVING TD FROM GUNNER OLSZEWSKI.
NYGvsDET on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/A5D17S03R3
— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2025
I could watch that 1,000 times. That man is a treasure.
Today, we will highlight a few of the Underperformers & Overachievers from Week 12 of the NFL season. We will use predictive and advanced metrics such as Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), the Bell Cow Report, and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) to parse through the weeds and decide what was random and what is here to stay.
If you haven’t already, check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)
Targets Per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives divided by the number of routes they run. This metric highlights a player’s involvement in the passing game, displaying which receivers are favored targets when they are on the field running routes.
Overachiever: Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants)
TPRR: 45.1%
Stat Line: nine receptions (14 targets), 156 yards receiving, TD
Fantasy Points: 26.1 (WR2)
As much as we don’t want to buy the Wan’Dale breakout, it’s become impossible to ignore.
Despite no Malik Nabers to draw attention away. Despite three different QBs through 12 games played. Despite his Head Coach being fired midseason, Wan’Dale is currently seventh in the league in targets (8.5/game) and WR23 in PPG (10.9). Sure, the floor is low, but the ceiling has been equally high, giving you low-end WR2 numbers from someone you picked up on waivers.
His aDOT has almost doubled this season, spiking from 4.8 to 8.3, while also seeing 14 deep targets, ranking #14th among all qualified WRs. Wan’Dale had over 100 receptions last year, but was still left for dead by the entire fantasy community. It’s time to give credit where credit is due.
Despite a lot of obstacles and a poor record, the Giants have remained surprisingly competitive over the past few weeks, which can be largely attributed to the performance of Wan’Dale Robinson.
Wandale Robinson this season
More receiving yards than:
DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Rome Odunze, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, AJ BrownMore catches than:
Drake London, Ladd McConkey, Emeka Egbuka, Nico Collins, Jaylen WaddleMore TDs than:
CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brian… pic.twitter.com/r8PdYn3uly— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) November 25, 2025
Underperformer: Ricky Pearsall (San Francisco 49ers)
TPRR: 14%
Stat Line: two receptions (four targets), six yards receiving | one rush, two yards
Fantasy Points: 1.8 (WR80)
Ricky Pearsall led the league in receiving yards over the first month of the season, but he simply hasn’t looked the same post-injury. He’s still very much involved in the game plan, but has fallen to third in the pecking order behind George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.
What is encouraging for Pearsall is that he is still seeing downfield targets, but unfortunately, both of his non-receptions ended in interceptions this week. Both of these can fall on the shoulders of Purdy, but one was an end zone target, and the other was snatched away on an incredible defensive play from Jaycee Horn.
Pearsall’s talent makes him undroppable, but with just 2.3 combined points over the past two weeks, he is no more than a desperation FLEX in Cleveland this week.
Two brutal Brock Purdy interceptions. If he led Ricky Pearsall, that's a TD, or he had plenty of room to run.
Turnovers have been a major issue for him the last two seasons.
A weird start for Purdy. He's 10/14 for 60 yards, 1 TD, but two picks. #49ers
pic.twitter.com/2mdi8WyaU0— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 25, 2025
Bell Cow Report
The Bell Cow is a rare, mythical beast in the world of fantasy football. He is one who dominates his backfield in touches as both a rusher and receiver, displaying an elite skill set and putting the team on his back, à la Greg Jennings.
Overachiever: Chase Brown (Cincinnati Bengals)
% of Team Carries: 82.6%
% Target Share: 10.5%
% Team Yards: 42.3%
Stat Line: 19 carries, 107 rushing yards | two receptions (four targets), 23 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 14 (RB13)
Without Samaje Perine, Chase Brown once again dominated this backfield, giving New England its first 100-yard rusher of the season.
It feels like people are still too low on Brown after a quiet start, but since Joe Flacco arrived in Week 6, he has been the RB11 in PPG (14.6). He played 88.7% of snaps and ran a route on 71.8% of dropbacks this week, and is averaging 18.5 touches/game over the past five weeks. We can expect that number to dip slightly when Perine is assumed healthy, but even so, his average of 5.2 targets/game reminds us that he is game script proof.
Now, I don’t for a second think this team should let Joe Burrow come back this season. They are 3-8, with an offensive line that can’t and won’t protect him, and a defense that has become the laughing stock of the fantasy community. Nothing good can come of this.
But this is what poorly managed teams do. So here we go.
With Burrow expected back on Thursday, we have to project only positive things for this offense. Tee Higgins has already been ruled out with a concussion for their Thanksgiving Day game, leaving Brown as arguably the second-best receiving option on the team. The Ravens’ defense has been much improved over the past month, but they are still bottom-nine in targets and receiving yards to RBs in that span. He’s got a highly favorable end-of-season schedule, and is (in one man’s humble opinion) still a great buy in both redraft (if it’s not too late) or dynasty.
Bengals RB Chase Brown has 100+ scrimmage yards in his last FIVE games 🔥
• week 7: 100 yards
• week 8: 105 yards
• week 9: 112 yards
• week 10: 127 yards
• week 12: 130 yardsBrown just keeps getting better as the season goes on 👏📈 pic.twitter.com/f12rxHtKqP
— Bengalscentre (@benga1scentre) November 24, 2025
Underperformer: David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)
% of Team Carries: 25%
% Target Share: 7.1%
% Team Yards: 7.5%
Stat Line: five carries, 18 yards rushing | three receptions (three targets), 19 yards receiving
Fantasy Points: 5.2 (RB36)
For the record, there were a lot of people who said the Lions reached for Jahmyr Gibbs at pick 12 in the NFL Draft.
Ya’ll are awfully quiet now.
Jahmyr Gibbs is set to prove he was worth the 12th overall pick 😤#OnePride pic.twitter.com/HGjQgBtD2P
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) August 20, 2024
Hats off to GM Brad Holmes for what he’s done to turn this team around.
Now, back to Montgomery. This duo has coexisted as the most dominant 1-2 punch in the league for years now, but the takeover has begun, and it’s hard to argue against it.
Montgomery has only had seven and eight touches over the past two weeks, and has not eclipsed 40 yards in either game. The pendulum could easily swing back in his favor, but unless this team decides to take Gibbs off the field, he may not be the locked-and-loaded RB2 we’ve come to know for your playoff run.
Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, Monty remains one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league and still carries weekly FLEX appeal in this high-powered offense.
FRUSTRATION: Sources close to the Lions facility say David Montgomery was very vocal after the game about his reduced role behind Gibbs.
Veteran RB remains professional publicly, but privately seeking clarity on usage.
Worth monitoring in Detroit.
pic.twitter.com/FP7jCG9SWt— Brock Sanderson (@SidelineBrock) November 23, 2025
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity. It uses stats to project a player’s would-be fantasy points based on actual in-game metrics.
Overachiever: Darnell Mooney (Atlanta Falcons)
xFP: 4.7
Fantasy Points: 14.9
Without Michael Penix or Drake London, the Saints were able to play competent enough football to beat their division rival.
Good stuff, Atlanta.
Both teams mostly struggled to move the ball, but the game was sealed with a beautiful, 49-yard touch pass from Cousins to Mooney with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
It’s been a quiet, injury-plagued season for Mooney, but it was nice to see him bounce back this week against New Orleans. Assuming the team slow plays the return of London, it will likely be a battle between him and Kyle Pitts for the WR1 role on this team.
He is well worth a stash heading into the playoffs.
KIRK COUSINS 🎯 DARNELL MOONEY
pic.twitter.com/9aDzweQFZI— PFF Fantasy (@PFF_Fantasy) November 23, 2025
Underperformer: Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions)
xFP: 5.7
Fantasy Points: 0.0 (Unranked)
Jameson. What the friggin’ heck, dude. You were literally the Overachiever just last week!
In a game dominated by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gibbs, Jameson once again became an afterthought. We thought the loss of Sam LaPorta would only propel Jameson’s value, but that was not the case at all against the Giants. He did have a 40-yard catch called back by penalty, but that doesn’t help that big old 0 in your lineup.
It feels like there isn’t much left to say here. Jameson has the talent and opportunity, but he will simply be a week-winning/losing, boom-bust FLEX play from here on out.
Jameson Williams last 5 games…
0/0/0 = 0.0 fantasy points
4/88/1 = 16.8 fantasy points
6/119/1 = 20.9 fantasy points
4/66/1 =14.6 fantasy points
0/0/0 = 0 fantasy points pic.twitter.com/eIQsZlhkCA— Underdog (@Underdog) November 23, 2025