The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Michael Pittman Jr.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
Pack your bags, load up the car, and remember to turn on that out of office message, because it’s time for a little summer vacay, and we’re all heading to the PPR capital of the Midwest…Pitty City.
On March 5th, the Indianapolis Colts placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Pittman, their leading receiver for the last three seasons, in a move to buy themselves a little time to shore up a long-term deal with the former second-round draft pick. Less than two weeks later, the 26-year-old had inked a new three-year deal, worth up to $70m, that will keep him at Lucas Oil Stadium until 2026. There is zero doubt that Pittman is the guy for Anthony Richardson and this passing offense moving forward, but can the former USC Trojan build on his top-15 finishes in 2021 and 2023 and finally crack that WR1 ceiling in the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the case for Michael Pittman Jr.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
Entering the 2023 season, there was a dark cloud of uncertainty being cast over Pittman’s potential fantasy output for the year ahead. The Colts had cut ties with the aging Matt Ryan in the offseason, and they added dynamic rookie Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick of April’s draft. Fantasy managers justifiably had doubts concerning Pittman’s ceiling with Richardson under center, given the historical output of wideouts with rookie signal callers.
(Andy Holloway took a deep dive into the numbers in his recent article The Reality of Rookie QBs. The most relevant takeaway pertaining to Pittman is that since 2010, the leading receivers on teams with a rookie QB averaged only 69 receptions, 837 yards, and 4.3 touchdowns).
The fears of having Richardson as a Week 1 starter, coupled with Pittman’s somewhat underwhelming WR22 finish in 2022 when he was being drafted as the WR10 with an ADP of pick 3.06, were baked into his overall ADP of 81 for the 2023 season, seeing him plummet to the 35th receiver selected in fantasy drafts come September…weren’t we all made to look silly?
Pittman truthers saw an immediate reward in the faith they had put in the third-year wideout, with #11 hauling in eight of his 11 targets for 97 yards (all team highs) in the Colts’ Week 1 defeat at home to Jacksonville. Pitty City was back, finishing as WR7 on the week, thanks to being the recipient of debutant Richardson’s first passing touchdown as a pro on a 39-yard catch and run in the third quarter.
2nd and 29 ➡️ To the House
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/O0hYkOEuCF
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 10, 2023
Unfortunately, that was the first and last TD the two would hook up for before Richardson’s untimely shoulder injury in Week 5…enter all fantasy managers’ favorite jorts-wearing back-up, Gardner Minshew. Pittman and Minshew clearly took a page from Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp’s Big Book of Best Buds Breakfasts as Pittman would finish as a WR2 or better in his next eight starts, including four top-12 finishes at the position.
Pitty City would end the season as the WR15 in half-point formats, seeing the ninth most targets of any receiver in the NFL with 156. Pittman’s second career top-15 finish was made all the more impressive given he achieved it off the back of only four touchdowns on the year. No other wideout in the top 24 had fewer TDs on the season than Pittman, with only WR25 Adam Thielen (four) and WR30 Chris Godwin (two) scoring fewer times in the top 30 at the position…positive regression anyone?
The Path for 2024
Two snaps! No, that’s not an incredibly deep In Living Color reference, but rather how many plays Michael Pittman, Anthony Richardson, and Jonathan Taylor were on the field together for Indianapolis in 2023. Richardon’s injury aligned almost perfectly with Taylor’s return from the PUP in Week 5, and as a result, we never got to see the true power of this Colts offense last time out. With injuries and contract disputes behind them, as well as boasting a top-five offensive line, the potential for this Colts offense to take another step forward is there for all to see. This is a unit that was a middle-of-the-pack 15th in total yards per game last season and a respectable 11th in total points scored, all without at least one of their key weapons for 99% of the year. Having their franchise quarterback and bell cow RB on the field from the get-go should allow for Shane Steichen’s RPO-style offense to flourish, with alpha WR Pittman being one of the main beneficiaries.
Target Share
The 2023 season saw Pittman lead the Colts’ receiver corps across all main measurables for the third year in a row, most notably a career-high in team target share at 28.6%.
| Year | Targets |
Team Target Share
|
| 2020 | 61 | 11.4% |
| 2021 | 129 | 25.5% |
| 2022 | 141 | 24.4% |
| 2023 | 156 | 28.6% |
Pitty City’s 156 targets on the year ranked ninth in the league at the wide receiver position, climbing to sixth when adjusted to a per-game basis (9.75 targets/game). His 19 red zone looks were good enough for tying eighth with Ja’Marr Chase. An argument could be made that Pittman didn’t face much competition from his teammates, with only Josh Downs (WR46) and Alec Pierce (WR72) offering any real threat for looks, and that the addition of second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell could impact Pittman’s dominance moving forward…but I’m not worried. The talented rookie out of Texas should cement the WR2 role early on in the season and command the targets that come with it – but this will likely be at the expense of Alec Pierce and the 65 targets he received in 2023, not Pittman.
The sample size is small, but in their short time on the field together, Anthony Richardson targeted Pittman on 23 of his 84 pass attempts through three and a half games – a healthy 27.4% market share, close to his season average with Minshew. Any number in that region would again see Pittman place in the elite category at the position for the season ahead.
It is worth noting that Indianapolis has only 58 vacated targets this offseason, predominantly with the departures of Zack Moss and Isaiah McKenzie. Expect Jonathan Taylor to be the main beneficiary of Moss’ exit and McKenzie’s looks to be absorbed evenly by the remaining wideouts on the roster.
Receptions & Catch Rate
Do you want even more categories that Pittman finished as a WR1 on the season in? No problem! We’ve already seen that his 156 targets ranked ninth among wide receivers in 2023, but volume is only worthwhile if you can catch all of those balls coming your way. Luckily for fantasy managers, Pitty City hauled in 109 of those 156 looks, more than any other wideout not named CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Pittman’s 69.8% catch rate was good enough to place him 11th at the position for WRs who saw at least 50 targets and has been consistent year-on-year since his sophomore season in 2021.
| Year | Targets | Receptions | Catch Rate |
| 2021 | 129 | 88 | 66.2% |
| 2022 | 141 | 99 | 70.2% |
| 2023 | 156 | 109 | 69.8% |
Pittman’s high catch rate is all the more impressive considering the calibre of quarterbacks throwing him the ball in that three-year spell; Matt Ryan (67%), Sam Ehlinger (63%), Nick Foles (60%), and Carson Wentz (62%) all boasted a completion rate lower than Pittman’s catch %, highlighting the receiver’s ability to not only get himself into space to make high-percentage grabs, but also perform above the talents of those attempting to make the pass – worth remembering considering Richardson’s relatively modest 60% completion rate in his first four games as a rookie.
Yards & aDOT
The story of Pittman’s yardage and aDOT statistics read like a Dickensian novel – A Tale of Two (Pitty) Cities.
2023 saw Pittman surpass 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in his short career, recording 1,152 yards in the 16 games he participated in, placing him at WR14 in yards receiving. His 29.7% of total team receiving yards was a welcome return to form after seeing his share slump to 24% last year, down from his career-high of 30.1% in 2021.
Pittman averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023, just 0.3 yards short of his 2021 benchmark of 2.1 YPRR – thanks mostly to his impressive 513 yards after catch (YAC) – and despite his modest 1,232 air yards (WR25).
As much as I don’t want to mention it, there is no escaping Pittman’s upside-limiting aDOT in this Colts offense. Despite a significant number of targets, an aDOT of 8.08 on the season is enough to cause concern – even more so when focusing on Weeks 1-4 with Anthony Richardson, where it falls even further to a mere 7.26…woof!
Touchdowns
Much like many of Charles Dickens’ other works, this article too ends on a somewhat somber note.
Pittman notched up a team-high four receiving touchdowns in 2023, and no, that’s not a typo. For the second consecutive year, he led the Indy pass-catchers with a mere four scores on the season, down from his career best of six back in 2021, which subsequently was also a team-high.
This isn’t a Pittman problem, it’s a Colts problem…no wide receiver in Indianapolis has put up more than six receiving touchdowns in a season since Donte Moncrief back in 2016, and even then he only had seven. In the last 10 years, only the TE trio Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and Eric Ebron have found the end zone on eight or more occasions in one campaign.
Is this the year that changes? Probably not. Would I settle for Pittman matching his 2021 total of six? Absolutely.
Conclusion
Michael Pittman is currently being drafted in the middle of the fourth round as the WR21 on Sleeper. Alongside Mike Evans (WR15) and DK Metcalf (WR24), Pittman is one of only three wideouts being drafted in the WR2 range who are the clear alpha pass catchers on their respective teams.
I’ve already highlighted that in 2023 his total targets, percentage of team targets, overall red zone looks, total receptions, and catch completion rate were all at a WR1 level…but we are seeing Pittman being drafted behind Stefon Diggs (WR17) and Malik Nabers (WR20) – the former finishing as WR47 over the second half of last season and the latter being a rookie catching passes from Daniel Jones.
Pittman is being drafted at his floor. Over the last three seasons, he has hauled in just under a quarter of the Colts’ receiving touchdowns, meaning if Anthony Richardson can hit a modest 24 scores…it’s on. Taylor’s presence in the backfield alongside the mobile Richardson should allow for a slight bump in Pittman’s aDOT over the season, presenting an opportunity to break the 1,200-yard barrier for the first time in his career. A line of 106 catches for 1,250 yards and five touchdowns would give Pittman a final output of 214 fantasy points in 0.5-PPR formats – a mark that would see him finish as a WR1 every year back to 2015.
Pitty City is open for business and there’s an offseason sale for all fantasy managers, so be sure to get the best possible value for your team and grab yourself a bonafide WR1 at a WR2 price on draft day.