The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DeVonta Smith
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
Despite a dominant 10-1 start, the Eagles imploded over the final seven games of 2023. They finished the season 1-6, wrapping a bow on the year with an absolute stomping from the Baker-led Bucs in the wildcard round of the playoffs. In the wise words of Michael Scott, “My how the turntables..”
Nick Sirianni could be the problem in Philadelphia
Rewind to the Super Bowl when Sirianni was taunting the Chiefs and Jalen Hurts had to make him stop… was this a sign?pic.twitter.com/au4XxCRESg
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 16, 2024
For fantasy purposes, the Eagles still delivered. They finished sixth in scoring (25.5 PPG), with Jalen Hurts coming in at QB2 overall, a serviceable D’Andre Swift at RB23, and two top-20 WRs in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, the latter of which we’ll be discussing here today.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
After a WR10 breakout campaign in ‘22, the former Heisman Trophy winner faced some slight regression in ‘23. Despite the “down” year, he was still able to surpass 1,000 yards receiving for the second straight season, tied his career-high of seven touchdowns, and finished as WR20 on the season.
| Season | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | TDs | Tgt Share | aDOT | YPRR |
| 2021 | 103 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 22.1% | 14.4 | 2.16 |
| 2022 | 136 | 95 | 1,196 | 7 | 27.0% | 9.9 | 2.30 |
| 2023 | 112 | 81 | 1,066 | 7 | 22.8% | 12.1 | 1.83 |
With a star-studded surrounding cast and a new offensive scheme, what can we expect from DeVonta Smith in 2024?
The Path for 2024
The Eagles went right to work this offseason, firing OC Brian Johnson, DC Sean Desai, and anyone else that may have tried to out-smug Nick Sirianni midseason. Their house cleaning was followed with splashes in both the draft and free agency, revamping their secondary and locking up talent at almost every skill position for the foreseeable future.
The addition of Saquon Barkley took the league by storm, leaving Giants fans in disbelief that anyone could leave their perennially disappointing franchise just for more money and a shot at a Super Bowl. Scoff. The audacity.
This move was followed by big-time extensions for both Smith and Brown, locking them each up for the next three years. With PFF’s second-ranked offensive line and TE Dallas Goedert still under contract, this offense will once again be a force to be reckoned with in 2024.
The Top-10 best offensive lines this season 📊 pic.twitter.com/CaYqNCmoyg
— PFF (@PFF) December 28, 2023
Offensive Scheme
There’s a new sheriff in town, and it’s one that we absolutely love for fantasy football. OC Kellen Moore was brought in from the Chargers (and formerly the Cowboys) to replace the stale and predictable offense that defensive coordinators had seemingly figured out by Week 12 of last season.
In Moore’s tenure as the Cowboys OC, the team finished top six in scoring three of four seasons, including third in ‘22 and first overall in ‘21. So naturally, the Cowboys did what good teams do when they find success: they fired him.
“Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up, but I want him to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense.” – Mike McCarthy
Credit where credit is due, however, as McCarthy and the Cowboys once again formed the first overall scoring offense in ’23, while Moore and the Chargers limped to the finish line, sparking the start of the Jim Harbaugh regime.
Although LA’s season did not have the (real-life) outcome we may have hoped for, there were still many promising fantasy metrics in their underlying performance. Per Borg and Betz on the recent New Look Offenses + Scheme Changes dynasty episode, the Chargers were fourth in the league in pace of play last season, as opposed to 17th in Philadelphia. This has been a consistent theme in Moore’s five years as an OC, where his time with the Cowboys ranked first (twice), second, and fourth in situation-neutral pace over that span. Assuming Moore brings his faster-paced mentality to this star-studded Eagles offense, we are going to be in for an exciting and high-scoring year.
Now, let’s take an even deeper look into his offenses, specifically in regard to DeVonta. Over the past two seasons (in two different systems), the slot WR in this system has finished WR6 in ‘22 (CeeDee Lamb) and WR8 in ‘23 (Keenan Allen), even with Allen missing the final four games of the season. For the fun of this discussion, let’s extrapolate Allen’s 17.3 PPG (0.5-PPR scoring) over the final four games, putting him firmly at WR3 last year, slotted in ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Lamb and Allen averaged 9.2 and 11.5 targets/game in these seasons, respectively.
There are certainly differences here, as both of these players are the clear alphas on their team, however, it’s still an encouraging storyline for a player whose slot percentage has risen from 9.9% to 16.4% to 24.3% over the past three seasons (per PlayerProfiler), and one who has historically excelled from the slot, beginning with his time at Alabama. If DeVonta’s slot usage continues on his current trajectory, his target share and value could be raised to another level this season.
Reminder that DeVonta Smith is absolutely ridiculouspic.twitter.com/1MexqZqKwG
— Eagles Fan Central (@EagleFanCentral) July 2, 2024
Target Share
Although his 22.8% target share took a slight dip last season, this is still a very respectable number, and one I personally view closer to his floor as his career continues to blossom. After a 27% target share in ‘22, Devonta has proven he is a consistent target earner, regardless of who else is on the field.
Although these numbers aren’t top-end elite statistics, we have to keep in mind that he’s doing this with AJ Brown on the other side of the field, averaging 29.75% target share over the past two years. Although Brown has been mostly healthy in his Eagles tenure, we did get a glimpse of what this passing attack would look like without him in the Eagles/Bucs playoff matchup, with DeVonta posting eight receptions on 12 targets for 148 yards. He is the clear-cut number-two option on this offense, and if anything were to happen to either Brown or Goedert, his target share would only increase.
DeVonta Smith is that dude.
A 40 percent target share so far tonight. 🔥🔥
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) November 21, 2023
Touchdowns
Touchdowns are my only true area of concern for DeVonta, which is unfortunate to say for fantasy football purposes. At 6’0″, 170 lbs., he relies on route-running abilities and a 95.3% true catch rate over his red zone prowess.
Between AJ Brown, the addition of Saquon, and Jalen Hurts & the Tush Push (which is a great album name), it’s difficult to see a world where his red zone volume increases by a substantial amount in ‘24. With that said, he has still seen a 25% and 14.3% red zone target share over the past two seasons, telling us he is certainly not being phased out in this area of the field; however, it is reasonable to believe his seven touchdowns may be closer to his ceiling than his floor.
DEVONTA SMITH TOUCHDOWN!
pic.twitter.com/3OkRhXxcTn— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 5, 2023
Conclusion
DeVonta may not have had the top-10 season in ‘23 like he had in ‘22; however, despite missing Week 18 with an ankle sprain, he still finished the season as WR20. If we applied his 11.7 PPG (0.5-PPR scoring) for just one more week, he would have finished last season as WR15, ahead of Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf.
As long as AJ Brown remains on the field, it’s difficult to project DeVonta as a WR1 heading into ‘24. With that said, he is someone I am not afraid to target in dynasty, best ball, or redraft leagues at his current ADP. In the same vein as Jaylen Waddle, he is an elite athlete, a top-10 NFL draft pick, and would be the number-one option on most teams, if it weren’t for the absolute superstars ahead of them.
The former Heisman Trophy winner has shown a consistently high floor and ceiling, has the skill set to line up all over the field, and has missed just one game in his career. Although I can’t in good conscience rank him as a WR1 at this point in time, he is the perfect “WR2 with WR1 upside,” and I would be more than happy to draft him at his current ADP of WR21.
Plus, let’s be real, how can you not root for this guy?
"To all the young kids out there that's not the biggest, not the strongest: just keep pushing."
DeVonta Smith delivers a heartfelt acceptance speech after winning the Heisman Trophy ❤ pic.twitter.com/tljrFemRbe
— ESPN (@espn) January 6, 2021
Comments
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My favorite writer around!