Offensive Line Analysis: RB Efficiency Ratings (Fantasy Football)
If you read one of my previous articles where I analyzed the impact offensive lines have on RBs in fantasy, you know they play a large role in fantasy running back opportunity. While a talented rusher can set fantasy production through the roof, help is needed in the trenches to make their success possible. In this article, we will look at which RB/O-line combos are rated highest based on last season’s performance.
*These ratings will be based mainly on efficiency.
Methodology for a Rating System
Before we jump into rating the players, let’s break down our methodology for our rating system.
To give the O-lines a grade, I gathered a number of important offensive line metrics for each team, which include:
- average time to throw (weighted by the number of rushers)
- pressure percent
- average expected rush yards
- average time to line of scrimmage (run plays)
- average yards until contact (run plays)
- expected fantasy rush points per game
From there, I comprised an overall offensive line rating using a weighted summation of the z-scores for each metric. Finally, I scaled the ratings between 0 and 1 to make them more comprehensive and interpretable — this process is outlined more in detail in my previous article, for reference (I made a couple of tweaks to the formula however, so some ratings might be slightly different).
I followed a similar process with RBs, highlighting their efficiency-based stats per touch and per game (fantasy points over expected and rush yards over expected), without including any metrics that were offensive-line centric. With that, I averaged the scores together to get a comprehensive rating for fantasy RBs.
Plotting out each player’s rating against their team’s rating, we see the grades are independent, a good sign, as it tells us both are important in analyzing fantasy value. We also see that most RB duos (or trios) have similar player ratings. This goes to show how much an offensive line can impact player performance.
Running Back Ratings
Let’s jump into the ratings. The most efficient 45 RB/O-line pairs from 2023 are listed below, alongside the Ballers 2024 rankings.
- Players on new teams for 2024 were rated with their 2024 O-Line to show potential for the upcoming season.
- Eff. Rank stands for the RBs 2023 Efficiency Rank
- FFB Rank stands for Fantasy Footballers 2024 Rankings
Let’s dive deeper into a few of these names.
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery
Not only are these two backs incredibly efficient runners, but they are behind a top line in the league with star Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson returning for another season. While they both had a high TD volume last season (10 and 13, respectively), they are geared for another year of success on this run-first Lions team. The Ballers have Gibbs at RB4 and Montgomery at RB22, one of the top rated duos in the league.
Derrick Henry
King Henry is set for success in Baltimore — not only is he moving to a team with a highly rated O-line, but his role as a work-horse back should continue, as he joins the run-heavy Baltimore Ravens. While the line is expected to be young, there is no doubt Henry is in a good position to produce — even last season, behind a mediocre Tennessee line, he put up 14 fantasy points per game. The Ballers have Henry just outside the top 10, giving added faith that Henry with succeed in Baltimore.
Ezekiel Elliott
After a disappointing year with New England, Elliott heads back to Dallas for his ninth NFL season. Not only is he walking into a much better offensive line situation, but his final few games with the Patriots give us something to look forward to; in his last six games, he scored over 10 points (PPR) in five and finished as the RB15 or higher in three (RB1 once). In those final weeks, Elliott proved he still has what it takes to be an efficient RB in the league — he could end up being a late-round steal in redraft leagues. While the Ballers aren’t as high on Elliot as these ratings show, he has some serious potential to over-achieve in 2024.
Rachaad White
Tampa Bay’s lead back ranks 47 in our RB/O-line ratings. While the Bucs looked to bolster their line this offseason by adding veterans Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta, White simply isn’t an efficient runner. He averaged zero fantasy points over expected per game last season, despite a high volume of touches. If you are looking for surplus value, look away from the Tampa Bay backfield.
That’s all for this article! As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!
Comments
Shouldn’t you consider personnel changes along the o-line as part of the analysis?
Ideally, yes, but there isn’t data to help with this so that’s why the ratings are more retrospective