The Fantasy Footballers’ Writing Staff My Guys for 2023
By now, you probably know all about the phenomenon known as the Fantasy Footballers “My Guy” episode. It’s been in fantasy football lore since its inception in 2015. If you need all the visuals, here’s the YouTube link:
Every year we give our writing staff the chance to plant their flag in the ground for one guy. We have an incredible group of writers who have written so many forward-thinking pieces during the offseason. Please show them some love on Twitter and let us know who your player for 2023 is using the #MyGuy in your tweet.
Sam Howell, QB, WAS
Every pick in fantasy football is a risk/reward proposition. I don’t know for sure that Sam Howell is going to hit, but he’s not going to ruin a draft even if he’s a miss. What I like about him is his deep ball accuracy, which could be huge with Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin catching the ball. What I love about Howell is his rushing ability, which we saw glimpses of last year and during his junior year at UNC when he rushed for over 800 yards and produced 11 rushing TDs. It certainly doesn’t hurt that even beyond his receivers, Howell is surrounded by other talented offensive pieces and a new OC in Eric Bieniemy. – Eric Ludwig (@FF_Gouge)
Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
Second-year wide receiver breakouts have historically been a solid bet in the past. I have the Titans projected for 7.84 wins, and if they are hovering around .500 this year, I do not foresee them benching Tannehill to get Levis work. The move to grab Hopkins caps upside a bit, but at WR43 and in the 8th round you can basically draft your whole team before taking the shot on Burks. I have not left a dynasty startup or redraft without him so far this off-season. Burks yards per route run numbers were on par with Tee Higgins last year, and his contested catch rate makes him a viable deep threat. Treylon is by far my favorite pick later into drafts. – Blaise Winn (@BlaiseWinn)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba transcends the ordinary realm of first-round wide receiver prospects and stands firmly among the elite. This is a fact that is far too often ignored heading into fantasy draft season. In his sophomore year at Ohio State, he put together the greatest season for a wide receiver in Big Ten history, amassing 1,606 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on the year. Critics consistently point out the negatives in drafting JSN this year rather than focusing on his extreme upside to be an immediate contributor for fantasy football. These overblown concerns include his competition for targets and probable role as a slot receiver as a rookie. Ultimately, his talent will win out and he will prove to be an absolute steal in drafts this season and a true league-winner at his current ADP. – Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner)
Marquise Brown, WR, ARI
One of my favorite values at ADP is Marquise “Hollywoooood” Brown! While Kyler Murray’s injury will likely lead to a slower start for the Cardinals’ offense, Brown should still benefit from an immense amount of volume this year. For context, in his first six games without DeAndre Hopkins last season, Brown was averaging a 26% target share to go along with an absurd 40% air yards share. His Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) also ranked WR6 in that timespan, leading to WR1 fantasy production to start the year. Even with a brand-new coaching staff, I expect them to feature him heavily as the most talented wide receiver on this offense. And once Murray returns from injury, Brown has the upside be a league-winner in the second half of the season. – Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
In 2022 Trevor Lawrence managed to shake the stink off of Urban Meyer, finishing as QB8, even with six finishes outside the top 20, which was a significant improvement from QB22 his rookie season. I expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to take the leap this year, and the man guiding the ship is Trevor Lawrence. He’s spoiled for choices with offensive weapons like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, not to mention the return of Calvin Ridley. Throw in two talented RBs to catch passes in Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, who had 42 targets his final year at Auburn, and you have the recipe for a potential top 5 QB. On the team that scored the 9th most points per game, Lawrence threw for over 4000 yards, the 9th most among QBs. I expect the yards to go up with these weapons, as well as positive TD regression; let’s remember that massive yardage only translated into 25 TDs. Throw in the fact that Lawrence was tied with Josh Allen for the most on-target passes dropped by receivers; if the pass catchers clean it up a bit – and they should, being the second year in the Pederson system – our man Trevor is set up nicely. Currently at 6.04 for consensus ADP, he is, on average, the eighth QB coming off the board, so you have a little wiggle room when it comes to draft capital. Let your hair down, Trevor Lawrence; it is your year. – Julia Papworth (@juliapapworth)
Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
For fantasy managers who won’t get their hands on Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, prepare to play tight end roulette in 2023. But there is always the last-ditch effort of finding a late-round TE gem who is startable week-to-week and will keep managers from scrounging the waiver wire. I believe Juwan Johnson will be that tight end this year. He’s coming off a career season and gets a new quarterback in Derek Carr, who has a history of hyper-targeting the TE position (see Darren Waller). Johnson has improved his blocking which will keep him on the field more. As a converted wide receiver, he has the size and athleticism to make difficult catches and make his presence felt in the red zone. And as an added bonus, he has one of the most favorable schedules for the tight end position. If you are like the majority of managers out there who will have to punt the TE spot, I believe taking the chance on Johnson late in your drafts could pay off. – Dan Lovi (@LoviSports)
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted 12th overall to the Detroit Lions, and any team investing that kind of draft capital into an elite pass-catching running back will make every effort to utilize them any way they can. I know hearts have been broken many times by drafting Lions’ running backs, but I believe Gibbs will live up to the hype. He will be a PPR machine, and while David Montgomery may steal some touchdowns, Gibbs still has top-12 upside because of his pass-catching and playmaking ability. His fourth-round ADP is perfect, and I will draft him all day long there! – Ryan (@WhyDoIEvenTryFF)
Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT
Even though he finished as the WR39, Diontae Johnson was the sixth most targeted WR in 2022. The problem is he didn’t score a single touchdown. His 147 targets should have turned into around seven TDs, which would have been enough for him to finish inside the top 20. After earning an almost elite 27% target share and a 28.6% red zone target share, he just needs a little improvement in the quality of those throws to turn some of them into TDs. Kenny Pickett should take a step forward as a passer in 2023 and contribute to positive TD regression for Diontae Johnson, who in my opinion, is being drafted at his floor as the WR33. – Javier Manzanera (@elmantis)
Drake London, WR, ATL
London showed plenty of flashes in 2022 with Marcus Mariota under center, and everything in his profile suggests he can be a legitimate WR1 for a team. And of course, we love the second-year jump for wide receivers. London scored 44.9% of the Falcons’ wide receiver points last season and is a lock for 100+ targets, even with Kyle Pitts demanding his fair share. If Desmond Ridder can be average at the quarterback position for Atlanta in 2023, London should pay off his WR22 ADP. – A.J. Passman (@AjPassman)
Devon Achane, RB, MIA
I love Jahmyr Gibbs this season…but I love Devon Achane even more six rounds later. As I posted earlier this week and Andy echoed on the changing opinions show, Achane is basically a discount Gibbs. Comparing their team situations, Achane arguably has the advantage. His competition of Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert are veteran UDFAs that have never taken over a backfield in their combined 13 years of experience. Despite his diminutive size, Achane saw 399 opportunities over his final two collegiate seasons. Miami has potentially the most explosive offense in the league led by Tua Tagovailoa and the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but there is room for another speedster in Devon Achane to score plenty of fantasy points in Mike McDaniel’s system. – Aaron Larson (@aalarson)
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
Everything that could have gone wrong for Justin Herbert last year, did. Keenan Allen missed a huge chunk of the year, Mike Williams got injured, the offensive line was banged up, and Herbert himself dealt with a rib injury for roughly a month. It resulted in Herbert’s lowest YPA (6.8), TD rate (3.6%) and fantasy points per game (16.4) of his career. Now with his guys healthy, an OC upgrade in Kellen Moore and the addition of first round WR talent, Quentin Johnston, Herbert is set to smash his 2022 stat line, making him one of the more obvious positive regression candidates in all of football. Herbert should throw far more TDs this season compared to last year, his aDOT will increase, and quietly, he’s set to score more fantasy points with his legs than he did a year ago. 14 QBs logged 50+ rush attempts in 2022. Justin Herbert is the only one who didn’t score a single TD with his legs, and 12 of those 14 quarterbacks ran for 3+ scores. Herbert has the potential to be a league-winning pick at his ADP. – Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT)
Chris Olave, WR, NO
It pains me as a Michigan fan to pick an Ohio State guy, but Olave is primed for a great year. Last season, with a worse quarterback situation, he had an absurd 29 deep targets (third in the league) and a 28.1% targets per route run, which was eighth best for 2022. Players who demand targets, and get frequently targeted deep, is a recipe for fantasy goodness. Despite these amazing TPRR and deep targets numbers, Olave only scored four times last year. That low TD number just doesn’t make sense, but New Orleans was a pretty poor offense, which explains it somewhat. Derek Carr should boost the offense, but even if he doesn’t, positive TD regression favors Olave to have a huge year. – Nate Henry (@NateHenryFF)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Miles Sanders, RB, CAR
Despite recent comments, well documented on Groinindex.com, I think Miles Sanders has a screaming value as a fantasy RB this year. He is currently going on Sleeper as the RB19. The fear is the Panthers are bad, and Bryce Young struggles in his rookie season. We know, however, that Young sustained the elite passing work for Jahmyr Gibbs in college, and the team has already said they want to get Sanders involved in the passing game. Also, Carolina was bad last year, and less talented RBs still produced quality games for fantasy. The opportunity will be there, and he has the talent to bring quality production to your roster. – Caleb Leach, (@CalebLeach95)
Najee Harris, RB, PIT
Look, I get it. Last year was a disappointment for anyone who spent their first pick on Najee Harris. But let’s not overthink this – he played through lingering injuries, and now he’s healthy. His O-line was mediocre, now it’s better. He dealt with a rookie QB and truly inept OC, now they’re…still there, but hopefully better? Jaylen Warren looms in the distance, but make no mistake, this is Najee’s backfield (when healthy). The Steelers should easily improve on last season’s 26th ranked scoring offense, leading to more green-zone touches and an RB1 finish at a third round discount. – Peter Chung (@FF_Hypeman)
Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
When we’re looking for value in fantasy drafts, Jahan Dotson is the first name that comes to mind. Dotson is just one of 14 rookie WRs since 2014 to finish with 8.5 yards per reception and 7+ receiving TDs. In their sophomore season, 75% of those players went on to be a top-24 WR and 58% were top-12 WRs. Currently being drafted in the 7th Round, Dotson stands a chance to bring fantasy managers tremendous return on draft value especially if we see the increased passing volume in Washington with Eric Bieniemy now running the offense. Come season’s end, don’t be surprised when Dotson’s name is mentioned in the “league winner” discussion. – Kurt Mullen (@KurtKnowsBest)
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
It’s difficult to fully put into words how bullish one can be for a certain player. There are ranges of outcomes, statistical arguments, and sometimes just downright stubborn takes that borderline into propaganda. For Lamar Jackson, its guns up in a completely different offense constructed for his skillset with new OC Todd Monken. The Ravens notoriously only ran 3WRs on 12 % of their plays which was hilariously low. You might be saying to yourself “well… you see (takes a sip) they didn’t run it a lot because they didn’t have the WRs and maybe Lamar just isn’t great in those types of packages” as you once again sip your IPA with your buddy. Among QBs with 80+ dropbacks with 3+ WRs on the field last year, Lamar Demeatrice Jackson Jr. led ALL of them in Comp. % over Expectation (CPOE) and in preseason Week 1 it was evident this team is taking a major shift running 81% in 3WR sets . Oh, and I forgot to mention he is the greatest rushing QB… of all time already! Even if he “runs less”, scrambles on pass plays are even MORE valuable for fantasy with two times the expected points as a pass attempt. Before his injury in Week 13 last year, he was the QB5 averaging 22 fantasy points per game. He is going to break fantasy all over again in 2023! – Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg)
Comments
It’s funny. Half of these guys are on the “do not draft at ADP or at all” on si many other sites. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
And to Patrick who commented above me, I’ve been the only woman on my 12 person league for years. This year, we have another woman joining. Yay! I, too, would like to see a FF woman on the channel.
Just to combat negativity…
This article last year featured Amon-Ra St Brown, Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, Christian Kirk, Devonta Smith, and Chris Olave. Yes, there were some flops (a good handful due to injury), but there is likely gold to be mined here. I love the article for what it is.
I’m not mad at any of these picks. Good analysis as well however everything stated only served to reinforce my belief in most of these studs. Good work you guys are the best. Pro tip — get some ladies involved on your channel. My league started as 12 guys. It’s now 7 ladies and 5 guys. The ladies are underrepresented in fantasy channels.