The 2023 “My Guys” Episode!
It’s that special time of year! “My Guy” Picks on today’s fantasy football podcast! Find out which players Andy, Mike, and Jason don’t want to leave 2023 fantasy football drafts without! Don’t miss the annual Footballers tradition! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for August 18th, 2023.
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SUMMARY:
My Guys Episode and UDK Giveaway
- The episode is dedicated to My Guy Picks.
- They are giving away the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK) for life.
- To participate, people need to go to ultimatedraftkit.com and pick up the 2023 UDK.
“We’re giving away the UDK for life.”
Podcast Introduction
- The Fantasy Footballers podcast is hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
- Today’s episode is the My Guys episode.
- The hosts share their excitement for the episode.
“Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.”
Special Live Stream and Giveaway
- A special live stream is taking place at 6 Eastern, 3 Pacific.
- During the live stream, they will give away the UDK for life.
- A signed Derek Henry Jersey and a signed T Higgins mini helmet will also be given away.
“We have a very special live stream, 6 Eastern, 3 Pacific, giving away the UDK for life.”
Describing My Guys Picks
- The hosts will each present nine players they have strong conviction on as My Guys.
- They will make the case for each player.
- There may be agreement, disagreement, or a “prove it to me” sentiment.
“Going to make the case for each of our My Guys today.”
News and Notes
- There’s not much news, but it is mentioned that Sam Howell has been named the starting quarterback for week one.
- The hosts express excitement about Sam Howell and discuss his potential.
- Another update is Teran Armstead’s injury, which won’t be season-ending.
“Sam Howell has been named the commander starting quarterback for week one.”
What Makes a My Guy?
- A My Guy is a player that the hosts target, regardless of their ADP.
- It can be an early round pick or a value pick.
- The hosts want these players to come through and perform.
“A MyGuy is a player that, no matter what their ADP is, you are targeting them.”
My Guys Picks
- The hosts discuss their favorite players in fantasy football, known as “My Guys.”
- These players are typically mid-round values that they believe will perform well based on various factors like ceiling, floor, draft position, and ADP.
“We are heavily targeting these players in our drafts.”
History of My Guys
- The hosts have been doing the “My Guys” episode since 2015.
- They have had both successful picks and some misses throughout the years.
- Identifying players that stand out from the fantasy football community has become more challenging as the community becomes more knowledgeable.
“We want to break the mold and give you an advantage with our My Guys picks.”
Jason’s My Guys Picks
- Jason reveals his three My Guys picks for the 2023 season: Christian McCaffrey (CMC), Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.
- He believes these players will have great seasons and is confident in his choices.
“I’m planting my flag. I think they’re going to have great seasons.”
Potential risks
- While Jason is confident in his My Guys picks, he acknowledges that injuries and other unfortunate circumstances can happen to any player.
- He understands that there is always a chance that one of his picks may not perform as expected.
“The odds are there that one of those guys has an off season or an unfortunate injury.”
Mike Evans as Andy’s My Guy
- Jason reveals that Mike Evans is his number one My Guy pick for the 2023 season.
- He emphasizes his strong conviction in Evans and believes he will be a fantastic pick.
“Mike Evans, wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
Mike Evans‘ performance last season
- Andy acknowledges that Mike Evans had a bumpy ride during the 2022 season.
- He mentions that Evans had a decline in performance during the first half of the season but had a standout performance later on.
“Last year was a bumpy ride for Mike Evans.”
Reasons to trust Mike Evans
- Andy highlights some reasons why fantasy managers should not doubt Mike Evans heading into the 2023 season.
- He mentions that Evans graded higher as a receiver last year compared to his previous seasons with Tom Brady.
- Despite last year’s challenges, Evans still finished as the wide receiver 16 in only 15 games played.
“Mike Evans graded higher last year as a receiver than he had in each of the prior Tom Brady seasons.”
Mike Evans‘ consistency and value
- Andy points out that Mike Evans has consistently achieved 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past nine seasons, with an average of 9.44 touchdowns per year.
- Despite his consistent production, Evans is being drafted at wide receiver 33, much later than his previous seasons.
“He’s being drafted literally twice as far back in drafts right now at wide receiver 33.”
Addressing concerns about the quarterback situation
- Andy acknowledges that the main concern people have with Mike Evans is the uncertainty regarding the Buccaneers’ quarterback situation.
- However, he believes that Evans has shown he can perform well with various quarterbacks throughout his career.
“Literally nobody else has proven that he is immune to quarterback play more than Mike Evans.”
Baker Mayfield as a potential quarterback for Mike Evans
- Andy highlights that Baker Mayfield, one of the possible quarterbacks for Mike Evans, is a good deep ball thrower.
- He mentions Mayfield’s success in throwing deep balls and his high passer rating in 2021.
“Baker Mayfield is a really, really good deep ball thrower.”
Mike Evans‘ opportunity in the offense
- Andy points out that Mike Evans is expected to have a significant role in the Buccaneers’ offense.
- He mentions that with Russell Gage‘s departure, Evans and Chris Godwin should be the primary targets in the passing game.
“It’s going to be the Mike Evans and the Chris Godwin show.”
Mike Evans‘ personal goals
- Andy shares that Mike Evans has expressed his desire to break several records, including Jerry Rice’s consecutive thousand-yard streak and Randy Moss’s season touchdown record.
- He believes Evans has the potential to reach double-digit touchdowns and will receive a significant number of targets.
“You’re talking about a player that can get to double-digit touchdowns.”
Jason’s disagreement and personal experience
- Andy acknowledges that Mike Evans has burned him in the past, just like Kyle Pitts did last year.
- He mentions the inconsistencies in Evans’ performance and understanding the concerns surrounding his selection as a My Guy.
“The path getting there was so rough. He had seven bad games.”
“You’re going to wipe out nine years of 1,000 yards.”
Mike Evans‘ potential
- Mike Evans‘ current draft value is a good value considering his previous performances.
- There are questions about his ceiling and whether he still has top 15 potential.
- Considering his track record, it is possible for him to beat his average draft position (ADP).
“I think that Mike Evans is a good pick at his ADP because he should beat it.”
Factors affecting Mike Evans‘ performance
- The quarterback situation and the team’s performance could potentially limit Evans’ ceiling.
- However, with the potential for 12 touchdowns and a target share increase, Evans could still put up strong numbers.
- If Evans can regain a 26-27% target share, his lack of volume and other factors may balance out.
“I think the value there to get a difference maker at the tight end position is incredible.”
Mark Andrews‘ value
- Mark Andrews has been undervalued due to injuries and changes in the team’s dynamics.
- He has the potential to be the number one tight end and has been a consistent performer.
- Andrews’ average draft position (ADP) is currently in the fourth round, making him a great value pick.
“I think he is discount Travis Kelsey. And I think sometimes when I say that people, oh, that’s nice, Jason, you’re very handsome.”
Mark Andrews‘ role in the team
- The Ravens’ change in offensive coordinator and increased passing game indicate a positive outlook for Andrews.
- Despite being the only tight end on the field, Andrews rarely has to pass block.
- He is heavily involved in the passing game, running routes on 90% of dropbacks and being targeted on 25% of his routes.
“Mark Andrews is the wide receiver one for this team.”
Mark Andrews vs Travis Kelce
- Best dice roll for an advantage at the onesie position is Mark Andrews in the third round, compared to the guarantee with Kelsey
- Historically, Kelsey finishes one or two at the position
- Mark Andrews has finished four or five in the past, assuming no injury
- Fantasy footballers wouldn’t be happy with either injury or a finish at four or five for Andrews
- Andrews’ past finishes have been affected by variables such as injury and quarterback performance
- Prediction is that Andrews will finish as the tight end two or one at the end of the season
“The best dice roll for an advantage at the onesie position is Mark Andrews in the third round.”
Tyler Lockett‘s Success as a Wide Receiver
- Tyler Lockett‘s ability to avoid big hits by going out of bounds or diving to the ground contributes to his success as a wide receiver.
- Lockett’s small stature and avoidance of big hits show a smart strategy to protect himself and maintain his performance.
- Tyler Lockett‘s decision to avoid getting hit is influenced by Darren Sprouls, who highlighted the negative consequences of being hit in football.
- This approach makes Tyler Lockett one of the hosts’ “My Guys” picks for the 2023 fantasy football drafts.
“Why is Tyler Lockett still this great when he’s going to be 31 because he doesn’t take big hits… He’s also little, so it’s a smart move.”
Justin Fields‘ rushing potential
- Justin Fields was utilized differently in his rookie year.
- The Bears incorporated more designed runs for him, resulting in improved performance.
- In the first six weeks, Fields had an average of 2.17 designed runs per game, but from weeks 7 to 18, it increased to 5.3 designed runs per game.
- Fields achieved an impressive 7.1 yards per carry, which was the highest in the NFL.
- He had an average of 10.6 rush attempts per game, which included the most quarterback scrambles of all time.
- Fields tied Lamar Jackson for the most rushing games with 80+ yards (7 in total).
- Despite these achievements, experts believe Fields still has room to grow and reach his full potential.
“We haven’t seen the best Justin Fields yet.”
Comparing Fields to other rushing quarterbacks
- Out of the last decade, 13 quarterbacks have had more than 7.5 rushing attempts per game and started at least 15 games.
- Fields’ average of 10.6 rushing attempts per game exceeds this threshold.
- Among these quarterbacks, they averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game.
- Quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts had top-five fantasy finishes.
- Fields had a quarterback five finish in 2021 and shows great potential to be in the top five.
“He easily could be the quarterback one.”
Derek Carr‘s Target Preference
- Derek Carr has shown a history of favoring certain targets, such as Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper in previous years.
- This bodes well for fantasy football as it means that Carr is not afraid to repeatedly go to a particular player.
- This is great news for fantasy football players as it indicates that Carr may have a strong connection with his chosen targets.
“Derek Carr finds the target that he likes and he’s not afraid to go to that player over and over and over and that is sensational news for fantasy football.”
Devonte Adams’ Downfield Prowess
- Devonte Adams proved last year that doubts about his ability to perform downfield were unfounded.
- He had his best year with success in going downfield.
- This demonstrates Adams’ talent and makes him a valuable asset in fantasy football.
“People doubted the downfield prowess of Adams last year and they were proven that was a mistake to doubt that it was and Devonte Adams has the best year and so it’s a good in success of going downfield that he’s ever had.”
Derek Carr and Chris Olave‘s Strength of Schedule
- Derek Carr is paired with Chris Olave, and they have favorable matchups against teams like Tampa and Atlanta.
- However, they may face more challenging matchups against teams like Carolina.
- The preseason strength of schedule should be considered when drafting wide receivers, and it can be found in the ultimate draft kit.
“Derek Carr with Chris Olave we’re talking about I want to play Tampa super star I want to talk I want to play against Tampa I want to play against Atlanta I don’t want to play against Carolina for six of my games as well that is also baked in that the preseason strength of schedule in our ultimate draft get if you go look at who has who’s got the best schedule for the wide receiver position.”
Christian Olave’s Potential
- Christian Olave is a true emerging superstar and is a potential fantasy football gem.
- He is highly regarded by the Fantasy Footballers.
- He has the potential to dominate the field and is expected to have a breakout season.
“Boom Christian Olave so that’s just that’s just an extra bonus point for a player that I see as a true emerging superstar.”
Jahan Dotson Discounted Value
- Jahan Dotson is being drafted at a significantly lower position (801) compared to his potential value.
- He had an impressive rookie season with notable stretches marred by injuries.
- Dotson outpaced Terry McClurrin in terms of target share despite the quarterback challenges faced by the Washington Football Team.
- The discount on Dotson’s draft position is remarkable and presents a valuable opportunity for fantasy football players.
“Jahan Dotson” is at such an extreme discounted fantasy drafts… He can get into the end zone and so it’s not a knock on Terry McClaren. It’s a 1A1B that you’re getting this late in the draft.”
Jordan Addison‘s Trifecta
- Jordan Addison is a rookie wide receiver with significant potential.
- He possesses the desired trifecta for fantasy football success: draft capital, talent, and opportunity.
- The Minnesota Vikings selected him early in the draft, indicating their belief in his abilities.
- He has the talent to excel as a wide receiver, comparable to Devonta Smith.
- Addison also has a favorable opportunity with the Vikings, who desperately needed to upgrade their wide receiver corps.
“When it comes to drafting young players for fantasy, you’re looking for a trifecta. You want draft capital, you want talent, and you want opportunity… The Vikings took [Addison] 23rd overall despite how desperately they need defensive players. They also desperately needed a wide receiver if we’re being honest. The talent to me is very similar to Devonta Smith when you’re just another bulletin of cough award winner when you’re just so good at route running at setting up defenders.”
The potential of Jordan Addison
- Jordan Addison has the opportunity to step into a role where he can have 100+ targets.
- Addison may not hit the ground running and may not be in the Adam Thielen role right away.
- He is a low-cost player in terms of ADP, making him a favorable pick.
- By week three, Addison has the potential to earn a significant role as a rookie wide receiver.
“You’re grabbing a player who I think by week three will have earned that role the second half of the year we see this with rookie wide receivers like if he finishes as the wide receiver 30 this season Jordan Addison it’s going to be because the second half of the year he’s basically a top 20 top 15 type of wide receiver.”
Addison’s role and potential touchdowns
- KJ Osborne is currently ahead of Addison in the depth chart.
- The main concern for Addison is his potential for touchdowns, as he may not have the same ability in the red zone as Adam Thielen.
- However, the coverage drawn away from Addison could benefit the offense in full PPR leagues.
“My only question about Addison is going to be touchdowns it’s going to you know because he’s not 6 to like Adam Thielen was and you have Hawkinson and Jefferson that look if I’m Kirk Cousins I’m looking at those guys around the red zone right now ahead of Jordan Addison but the coverage that’s going to be drawn away from Jordan Addison it’s going to put defenders in a really really tough spot.”
Rookie wide receivers’ impact and Addison’s potential
- Rookie wide receivers tend to make significant fantasy impacts towards the end of the year.
- There is a chance that Addison could hit the ground running and have an immediate impact in week one.
- Factors such as concussion protocol and off-field incidents can affect a player’s price.
“There’s also the chance that he does hit the ground running…That’s the week one we’re all going oh my gosh like this guy was. Basically in the undrafted category or getting you know close to it in the tenth round and then you’re very happy…but ya know, there’s also a chance we get through a concussion protocol and him hitting someone with the car.”
Darren Waller as a favorite pick at tight end
- Darren Waller is a favorite pick at the tight end position.
- Compared to Mark Andrews, Waller is currently being drafted at the back of the sixth round on sleeper.
- Waller has faced injury problems in the past but the situation has changed now.
- The New York Giants traded a third-round pick to acquire Waller, indicating their belief in him.
“Darren Waller has become my favorite pick at the tight end position…The New York Giants gave up a third-round pick to get Darren Waller.”
The Giants’ situation and target distribution
- The Giants’ wide receivers have seen a decreasing percentage of targets over the years.
- There is no clear number one wide receiver on the team who demands targets.
- Waller could potentially become the de facto number one receiver for the Giants.
“Who is the who is the wide receiver one for the New York Giants…It might just be Darren Waller…They’re just not throwing it to the wide receivers because they again who is who is the number one wide receiver out there that just demands targets.”
Target share for tight ends and Waller’s potential
- Historically, teams with a target share of at least 24% for the tight end position have seen their tight ends finish in the top five.
- Waller has seen target shares of 24% and 28% in previous seasons.
- Waller’s age is not a concern, especially for the tight end position.
- Reports from training camp have been positive, indicating Waller’s continued involvement in the offense.
“How does that do a 24% target share…Now that’s Darren Waller is being drafted right at that monumentally large sample size…the age is not a concern…the quotes for Darren Waller have been you at least on validation and preventable…”
My Guys Picks
- The host discusses a player that could potentially be picked in the back of the sixth round.
“Going in the back of the sixth is someone to me that could.”
The Tight End Position
- The host expresses their belief that Darren Waller has the potential to challenge Mark Andrews for the tight end position.
“I believe that Darren Waller can easily challenge Mark Andrews for the tight end to position.”
Shortlist of Players
- The hosts mention some players who were in consideration for their “My Guys” picks, such as Justin Herbert, Jamir Gibbs, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Deebo Samuel, Alexander Madison, and J.K. Dobbins.
- They express their excitement for Justin Herbert and Chris Olave and mention their interest in Tara McLaurin.
“Some like quick names of players we were considering down the stretch like Jason’s Justin Herbert,” “Tara McLaurin I love but you know I’d receive one can’t go.”
Last Chance to Enter
- The hosts remind listeners that it is their last chance to enter the giveaway for the ultimate draft kit for life, a signed Derek Henry Jersey, and a T Higgins autograph mini helmet.
- To enter, listeners need to purchase the 2023 UDK or UDK Plus by 6:30 p.m. Eastern and tune into the live stream.
- Those who have already purchased the UDK this year are also eligible to win.
“One final reminder this is going to be your last chance to enter to win the ultimate draft kit for life along with a signed Derek Henry Jersey and a T Higgins autograph mini helmet.”
Cost of the UDK
- The hosts mention that the cost of the UDK equates to approximately 1.9 cents per episode of the podcast, which they consider a great value.
“For just one point nine cents.”
“We’re giving you our two cents in the UDK.”
Conclusion
- The hosts thank listeners for tuning in and encourage them to join their fantasy football community and follow them on social media.