The Fantasy Footballers’ WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11
It’s Football Time!
With preseason underway, the gang begins their countdown with WR rankings from WR20 to WR11. This range is littered with high-upside WR2s, and choosing the right one could be the pivotal piece on your team when all is said and done.
Who are we missing? Who is too high or too low? Comment below! We love hearing from you!
Of course, you can get all of the Ballers’ rankings for every position along with video breakdowns and more analysis in the UDK!
WR20 – Drake London (ATL)
After two painful years of the Arthur Smith experience, the Falcons finally made the changes necessary to set their team up for success. Smith was replaced with new (and previous) Head Coach Raheem Morris, who immediately brought with him OC Zac Robinson from the Rams, extending the Sean McVay coaching tree by yet another branch. The team wasted no time signing their franchise QB, Kirk Cousins, and shocked the world with heir apparent Michael Penix as the number-eight overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The formula here is simple:
Smarter coaches + better play calling + QB upgrade = London fantasy success.
The question is, how much?
Despite the Falcons being known for their rushing attack, the volume has always been there for London, with 110 and 117 targets over his first two seasons. Although we can all agree the QB play has been inconsistent, inaccurate, and subpar at best, he still only finished as WR36 and WR39 over those two years, with just eight top-24 finishes and six total touchdowns in that span.
The fantasy community has been pounding the table for the former number-eight overall pick, and this will be his chance to prove his worth. All signs point up for one of the offseason’s most polarizing players, but if you’re drafting him at his current ADP of WR10, anything less than a WR1 season would be a disappointment
For a much deeper dive, check out Jack Reinhard’s article on Drake London’s Path to a WR1 Season!
A little gymnastics from Drake London on this catch 😮
📺: #ATLvsAZ on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGc6Bj pic.twitter.com/nvfgiLjMhE— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023
WR19 – Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
*This article is being written on Wednesday night, so please forgive me if there are changes by the time you’re reading this. Our (currently) No. 19 ranked WR appears to be on his way to a new home.
👀 Christian McCaffrey refers to Brandon Aiyuk as a “former teammate”
h/t @StatsOnFire #49ers pic.twitter.com/RUtiFjt6aU
— Kevin Krueger (@kevinkruegs) August 6, 2024
Brandon Aiyuk has continued his ascension since his rookie season, finishing 2023 with a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns (in 16 games), as well as fantasy finishes of WR15 and WR14 over the past two years. He was the most efficient WR in the league last year, leading the league in fantasy points/target, and finishing third with an astounding 3.18 YPRR – all while running fewer routes than Allen Lazard.
The landing spot will have a significant impact on Aiyuk’s ADP heading into next season. There are many in the camp that Aiyuk is not talented enough to reach these high-end WR2 numbers elsewhere, implying he is simply a beneficiary of a great offense, with defenses having to also focus on Deebo, McCaffrey, and Kittle.
There are also many of the mindset that Aiyuk could shine as the WR1 in a different offense. We’ve never seen a world where the talent around him pales in comparison, and for an elite route runner and separator like Aiyuk, he could become an absolute target hog elsewhere, bringing his average of 110 targets into the 140+ range of the dominant WRs of the league.
What we do know is that wherever Aiyuk ends up, it will create enormous disparity in both redraft and dynasty leagues. If you’re an analytical fantasy player, this could create a monster opportunity and discount in your upcoming fantasy drafts.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see.
NEW Brandon Aiyuk's 2023 #ReceptionPerception profile has been added to the site ahead of schedule 👀
– 78.7% success rate vs. man, 96th percentile
– 85.4% success rate vs. zone, 91st percentile
– 83.6% success rate vs. press, 97th percentileAiyuk accomplished things last… pic.twitter.com/MqFQXa6A20
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 11, 2024
WR18 – DeVonta Smith (PHI)
The Ballers are bullish on DeVonta Smith.
What excites us most is the addition of new OC Kellen Moore, after a one-year stint with Chargers and four years with the Cowboys before that. Moore brings creativity and speed to this star-studded offense, both of which were lacking during the Eagles’ second-half collapse.
In his tenure as the Cowboys OC, the team finished top-six in scoring three of four seasons, including third in 2022 and first overall in 2021. Although many wouldn’t consider his time in L.A. a success, the most important metric of note was that the Chargers were fourth in the league in pace of play last season, as opposed to 17th in Philadelphia. This has been a consistent theme in Moore’s five years as an OC, where his time with the Cowboys ranked first (twice), second, and fourth in situation-neutral pace over that span. Assuming Moore brings his faster-paced mentality to this star-studded Eagles offense, we are going to be in for an exciting and high-scoring year.
We’ve also heard increasing buzz about DeVonta’s slot usage, which has already increased from 9.9% to 16.4% to 24.3% over the past three years. Over the past two seasons in Kellen Moore‘s systems (on two different teams), the slot WR has finished WR6 in 2022 (CeeDee Lamb) and WR8 in 2023 (Keenan Allen), even with Allen missing the final four games of the season. If DeVonta’s slot usage continues on his current trajectory, his target share and value could be raised to another level this season.
Smith finished as WR10 two years ago, and even in a “down” year last season, he finished as WR20 (16 games). At an ADP of WR24, he is currently being drafted below his floor, making him one of my favorite WR2 value targets this season.
*For a deeper dive into DeVonta, check out my previous article on DeVonta Smith’s Path to a WR1 Season.
Reminder that DeVonta Smith is absolutely ridiculouspic.twitter.com/1MexqZqKwG
— Eagles Fan Central (@EagleFanCentral) July 2, 2024
WR17 – DK Metcalf (SEA)
Although the Seattle offense left us underwhelmed last year, DK Metcalf still quietly finished as WR16 on the season. Despite being an absolute monster for five straight years, DK has somehow become a forgotten man in fantasy circles. Now entering his age-26 season, he is still in his prime and presents another great value in this year’s drafts.
Although the community is collectively hoping for a JSN breakout, one thing is clear in Seattle: DK is the alpha.
Since being drafted in 2019, he has led the entire league in end zone targets, and 79% of his receptions resulted in first downs last year, coming in second only to Brandon Aiyuk. Although he faced slight regression with just eight touchdowns last year, he still finished the season with 1,114 receiving yards (marking the third time in four years with over 1,000 yards), and is averaging nine touchdowns/year in that time frame. With new OC Ryan Grubb’s high-flying passing attack replacing Pete Carroll’s run-heavy game plan, there is plenty of room and opportunity for DK to regain WR1 status as a 10+ touchdown player this season.
Consistency remains a concern, but at his ADP of WR22, DK is being drafted four slots lower than his floor of any of the past four seasons. He has not finished below WR18 since his rookie season, and given what we know about the offense Grubb is implementing, there is no reason to think otherwise entering this year.
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf takes sign language classes on off days so he can talk trash to opposing players without getting flagged 💀
After scoring on Rams' CB Ahkello Witherspoon Sunday, Metcalf signed "#44, my son" pic.twitter.com/VhrZwjMW5X
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) November 22, 2023
For a much deeper dive, check out Joe Belder’s article on DK Metcalf’s Path to a WR1 Season!
WR16 – Cooper Kupp (L.A.)
This one should be fun.
After an absolutely dominant fantasy stretch, Cooper Kupp was finally supplanted as the Rams’ WR1. We think. Was he? It felt like it? Let’s dig in.
Puka Nacua took the world by storm last year. From the moment he stepped on the field, he commanded targets, put up WR1 numbers, and manhandled defenders week in and week out. As an underdog fifth-round pick, he is one of the easiest players in the game to root for, with arguably the coolest name in the league.
I digress. If you watched any of the Rams games last season, it was clear that Cooper Kupp was playing injured. Often being used as a decoy, he and Stafford just did not have the same rapport that we had grown accustomed to seeing. Just a few weeks into training camp this year, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler has already reported that Kupp is “all the way back” to full health, and the Rams’ offense “clearly runs through” him. It won’t take long for Kupp and Stafford to get back on the same page and for Kupp to regain his role in the slot as Stafford’s sure-handed safety valve.
In 12 healthy games last year, Puka took the lead with a 26.4% share, but Kupp wasn’t far behind at 25.9%. In the red zone, however, it was Kupp outpacing Puka, 20% to 10%. So who will be the WR1 on this team?
Well, barring any injuries, I personally think it’ll be both of them. Sean McVay is a brilliant schemer, and he will have game plans to get the ball in the hands of both of these players. There is certainly a world where they both eat into each other’s target share and both regress to the mean of their current ADPs. Currently being drafted at WR23 (and with Puka already facing a training camp injury), Cooper Kupp represents another tremendous value as the Ballers’ 16th-ranked WR.
Cooper Kupp in his last healthy season:
145 Receptions
1947 Yards
16 TDs
Triple Crown 👑👑👑
SBMVPThey forgot who you were @CooperKupp. It’s time to remind them. #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/VxcCHm1XQ9
— ✌🏽 (@Rlshl11) August 5, 2024
For a much deeper dive, check out Julia Papworth’s article on Cooper Kupp’s Path to a WR1 Season!
WR15 – Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Fresh off a big-time, three-year contract comes our 15th-ranked WR: Jaylen Waddle.
Expectations were sky-high after a WR7 finish in 2022, however, due to a myriad of injuries (and a literal cheetah on the other side of the field), Waddle was a slight letdown last year, finishing as WR34 in just 14 games (WR23 in PPG). Despite the down year for fantasy purposes, Waddle was still able to surpass 1,000 yards for the third time in three professional seasons – an impressive feat for the young star in the making.
Nothing at all has changed in this Miami offense. Along with Waddle, the Dolphins handed out contracts to Tua and Tyreek, giving an “all in” mindset over the next three years. Although the fantasy community has a gripe with Tua, he led the league in passing last year, and this team has 70+ point potential on any given week. In an increasingly zone-heavy league, Waddle’s 3.09 YPRR marks the fifth-highest WR over the past five years, behind just Tyreek (twice), Deebo, and Julio Jones.
In the same light as DeVonta Smith, Waddle is a former top-10 pick who would be the alpha on almost any team, if it weren’t for the superstar player ahead of them. Even with a healthy Tyreek Hill on the field, we’ve seen him post WR1 numbers, and he’d be a locked-and-loaded stud if anything were to happen to Hill. Waddle feels appropriately priced at his ADP of WR17, boasting top-10 upside in one of the league’s most high-powered offenses.
Jaylen Waddle is UNDERRATED in Fantasy.
His Current ADP is WR21.
Let's look at his PPG Rankings by Year:
🔹Year 1, WR13 (full season)
🔹Year 2, WR8 (full season)
🔹Year 3, WR21 (missed 3 games)
pic.twitter.com/y6g7FLdP6q— The Fantasy Football Know It Alls (@FF_Know_It_Alls) August 3, 2024
WR14 – Nico Collins (HOU)
Nico Collins‘ year three breakout was one of the fastest rises in recent memory, earning PFF’s number three overall WR grade last season. He is the perfect example of the difference a QB can make and should be the profile picture for all Drake London and Garrett Wilson truthers.
Collins took the league by storm, finishing the season as WR9 (despite missing two games). His connection with Stroud was on display from the get-go, and only continued to improve into the playoffs. He led all WRs in broken tackles, had 35 receptions of 15+ yards (tied for fifth), and his 3.24 YPRR ranked second in the league. This breakout was no fluke, and if you bought/held Nico in dynasty the past two years, then congratulations. You got yourself an absolute steal of an asset.
With a current ADP of WR11, the fantasy community is surprisingly undeterred by the addition of Stefon Diggs, however, the Texans paid Nico like a WR1 because they believe he is their WR1.
Nico Collins: 91.4 PFF Grade this season
3rd among all WRs 📈 pic.twitter.com/pHEzWvhsTn
— PFF HOU Texans (@PFF_Texans) February 15, 2024
WR13 – Mike Evans (TB)
30-year-old Mike Evans was a league winner last season. The future HOF’er swapped out Tom Brady for Baker Mayfield, and put up the second-best fantasy season in his 10-year career, coming in at WR5 overall. Beast.
Evans continues his Benjamin Button-esque campaign, overcoming any and all adversity the league can throw at him. In his 10-year tenure, Evans has had seven different QBs, four different head coaches, three different offensive coordinators, and one year with no OC at all. In that time, he has finished as a top-12 WR in seven of 10 seasons, leading to a big-time “thank you” contract from Tampa Bay as they try to build on their success from 2023.
OC Dave Canales has left for Carolina but will be replaced by OC Liam Coen, who briefly overlapped with Baker during their stint in L.A. We can expect there to be changes in this offense (including moving Godwin back to the slot), but who cares? No matter what happens, we know that Evans will once again be Baker’s most trusted ally. Averaging 132 targets/year over the past 10 years, Evans saw 136 targets for 1,255 yards and a league-leading 13 TDs last season. The touchdowns may be hard to duplicate, but Evans showed no signs of slowing down last year.
Long overlooked due to his increasing age, Evans may yet again be a steal at his ADP of WR15.
Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans for the 28-yard TD!
📺: #TBvsMIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/z5ILOb4mlf— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023
WR12 – Chris Olave (NO)
In the same vein as Drake London, we’re left to wonder again: Is this finally the year for Chris Olave?
Olave covers all the metrics you hope for in his first two seasons. He’s surpassed 1,000 yards on both occasions. He’s averaged a 26% target share. He led the NFL in contested catches on deep targets last year. He has the second-highest YPRR of any WR in the past decade over their first two seasons. He is the unquestioned number-one WR on this team, and will once again dominate targets.
Not much has changed on this offense, so if you’re buying into Olave (at his current ADP of WR11), that means you’re buying into new OC Klint Kubiak. The son of longtime coach Gary Kubiak, Klint most recently comes from the creative minds of the 49ers, bringing hope to the organization.
Under previous OC Pete Carmichael Jr., the Saints ranked dead last in play-action and pre-snap motion over the past two years. In that same time frame, Chris Olave‘s 3.13 YPRR with motion ranked third among all players. In an increasingly analytical sport, you’re probably wondering why they wouldn’t deploy this more. Well so are we.
The real answer is that the Saints are a middling organization, and they will be for a long time to come. They somehow find themselves at the bottom of the league in salary cap each and every year, yet never show any signs of improvement. So where is all this money going?
- They have PFF’s 32nd-ranked offensive line heading into the 2024 season, which is not a great start.
- They have one of the oldest and highest-paid RB rooms in the league, which is something any average dynasty manager would scoff at.
- They have a WR core that looks exactly the same as last year, if not worse.
- They have an uncuttable 34-year-old backup TE, who will somehow carry an $18 million dollar cap hit next year.
- They have a wildly overpaid QB, who does deserve to be a starter, but brings only playoff aspirations to the table.
- And they have a head coach who has built a career of hovering around .500, despite playing in one of the worst divisions in the league.
What’s not to like?
Although there is plenty of value on this team from a fantasy perspective, Olave is one of the lone bright spots and the future of this organization. The word from camp is that the connection between him and Carr is strong, but it remains to be seen if that will be enough to cement his breakout WR1 season.
𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: Chris Olave was asked if there's been a play this offseason that made him believe the #Saints will be good this season:
His response: "Uhhhh…. I mean, yeah not really." 💀pic.twitter.com/ZJMfcnPtV7
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 4, 2024
WR11 – Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
If you were fortunate to grow up watching Marvin Harrison Sr., you already know that the sky is the limit for one of the highest-touted WRs to ever enter the league. The question is: Will he be able to do it as a rookie?
The answer? He has to. At least at his cost.
Look, there’s not much we can say about a guy who’s never played a snap of professional football. He’s the “mystery box.” The shiny new toy we all want. He’s one of the closest things we’ve seen to a “perfect” prospect, but he is not coming cheap.
At WR9, this is the highest-drafted rookie of all time, and you are going to pay a premium for him (for instance, he just went as WR7 in the Ballers Writer League). To put this in perspective, if he does anything less than Puka Nacua‘s historic rookie season, then he didn’t live up to his price.
MHJ is a truly special talent and athlete, who has been training his entire life for this moment. He has a top-10 fantasy QB in Kyler Murray, and he will step in on day one as the number-one WR. There is nothing to dislike in Harrison’s game, but he is going to have to absolutely ball out in year one in order to live up to his draft price.
For the record, as one of Marvin Harrison Sr.’s biggest fans, I hope he does.
Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will go down as one of the best college football wideouts ever. 🌰 Highlights from his CFB career: pic.twitter.com/s6lC1gtnl7
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) January 21, 2024
Comments
How can the article breakdown be better than the actual episode?? Nick finds a way!