The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DK Metcalf
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
If you were asked to show a picture of the most physically striking wide receiver in the NFL, DK Metcalf would likely be your choice, probably flexing shirtless in a gym. Despite admitting that his diet consists mostly of an absurd amount of candy, Metcalf looks as though he was built in a lab or chiseled into a Herculean sculpture. Even with his remarkable physique and extraordinary athletic profile, Metcalf has yet to establish himself among the most elite wide receivers in the NFL, though his potential remains undeniable. Among the wide receivers ranked outside the Ballers’ consensus top 12 this year, few players possess the ceiling that Metcalf does, and there are many reasons to believe that the 2024 season could be when he transforms his immense potential into elite production.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
The 2023 season was marked by significant highs and lows for Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks. After a breakout sophomore season in 2020, where he surpassed 1,300 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns, Metcalf’s performance has since plateaued. Over the past two seasons, he has struggled to deliver consistently elite fantasy results, finishing outside the top 15 in total points in each, despite playing nearly every game.
In 2023, Metcalf recorded over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns, yet he finished as the WR16 in total points, with an average of 12 fantasy points per game. While this is a respectable average, it pales in comparison to the top-five wide receivers, who collectively averaged 18.12 PPG. Additionally, Metcalf’s catch rate hit a career low last season, contributing to his recent underwhelming performances.
Despite his decent overall stats, Metcalf only finished as a WR1 in two games last season. However, he did manage to rank WR25 or better in nine games, demonstrating his potential to be good, but not great. He had a few standout performances, including a Week 13 game against the Dallas Cowboys, where he caught six passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns. This game showcased his extremely high ceiling, thanks to his exceptional size and supernatural athleticism. While it is crucial to recognize this explosive performance, it is equally significant to acknowledge that, without it, his overall season totals would have been significantly diminished.
The Path for 2024
| Categories | 5-Year WR1 Averages | DK Metcalf (2023 Season) | DK Metcalf Career AVG (2019-2023) |
| Targets | 144.6 | 119 | 123.6 |
| Receptions | 97.4 | 66 | 74.4 |
| Receiving Yards | 1311 | 1114 | 1,066.4 |
| TDs | 9.5 | 8 | 8.6 |
Based on the historical averages shown in the chart above, the pathway to becoming a WR1 in fantasy football is clear. However, DK Metcalf fell well short of the necessary targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns to reach this esteemed mark last year. So, what makes the 2024 season different from last year? It starts with a new coaching regime poised to transform an offense brimming with untapped potential into a powerhouse. If Metcalf is finally utilized as the superstar wide receiver he should be, his production could soar to new heights, elevating his game to elite status.
Target Share
While Metcalf’s potential has already been discussed at great lengths, it is time to look into some of the factors that might have been holding him back the last couple of seasons. As the most important, it begins with his target share in the Seattle offense. Metcalf averaged just 7.44 targets per game last year, ranking as the 25th wide receiver in targets per game average. Even four tight ends averaged more targets than him last season. Additionally, he received only 119 targets in 2023, his lowest since his rookie year. Despite it being clear that he is by far the most talented wide receiver on his team, Metcalf only had a 22.8% target share last season. On the contrary, despite a down season for the aging Tyler Lockett, he was still able to carve out a similar importance to the team with a 22.3% target share. While most WR1s in their offense push north of 25% of their team’s targets, Metcalf is more in the range of a high-end WR2 in this regard with similar percentages to DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
Although I would never speak poorly of the great Pete Carroll, his offenses have become somewhat stale in Seattle over the past few seasons. Notably, the Seahawks finished 32nd, 22nd, and then once again dead last in offensive snaps over the last three years. This helps explain why Metcalf’s targets per game have not been higher, with his team’s offensive snaps falling 7% below league average. Fortunately, a new and energized coaching regime is set to take over, potentially revitalizing this offense. New head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should give Seattle Seahawks fans plenty of reasons to be excited about the team’s future. Grubb, who was the offensive coordinator at the University of Washington for the past two years, successfully transformed the program into a powerhouse. Under his leadership, Washington’s offense ranked in the top three nationally in passing over the last two seasons. This bodes well not only for Metcalf but also for Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Noah Fant.
“I can tell you this: We want to get DK the ball a lot, too.”
Great insight from #Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald on The Insiders about how the new staff plans to make DK Metcalf a “moving target” for defenses, and a lot more.
📺📱💻 Full episode at https://t.co/RV7mRM4pQk pic.twitter.com/8JDgIApEhm
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) June 14, 2024
However, given Metcalf’s unique playstyle, size, and dominant athletic ability, it is hard to imagine any receiver surpassing him in importance to the team. Grubb could utilize Metcalf in a similar manner to how he used Rome Odunze in the Washington offense. In 2023, Odunze was one of only four players in the nation to earn over 140 targets, converting those into 92 receptions for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns. If Seattle adopts a similar approach to Metcalf, he could achieve the highest target share of his career in 2024. While he still has areas of his game to refine before reaching elite NFL receiver status, an increased target share would set him up for tremendous success moving forward.
Receptions & Catch Rate
| Season | GP | Catch Rate | Rec/Game | Total Receptions |
| 2023 | 16 | 55% | 4.1 | 66 |
| 2022 | 17 | 64% | 5.3 | 90 |
| 2021 | 17 | 58% | 4.4 | 75 |
| 2020 | 16 | 64% | 5.2 | 83 |
| 2019 | 16 | 58% | 3.6 | 58 |
While catch rate is not typically viewed as a sticky statistic because it is uniquely driven by the type of opportunities that a player receives, it is still an area in which Metcalf struggles and needs to make significant improvements. As mentioned, despite being Seattle’s undisputed WR1, he receives opportunities more akin to a high-end WR2. To maximize these targets, he must be extremely efficient to offset this deficiency. However, last year Metcalf was far from efficient, catching only 55% of his targets (worst of his career) and averaging just 4.1 receptions per game. This inefficiency has hindered his potential, as he has never surpassed a 64% catch rate in his career. Additionally, he barely outpaced his rookie season in receptions per game and total receptions, finishing with just 66 catches over 16 games. The hope is that a new system, which better utilizes Metcalf’s unique skill set and provides him with more opportunities, can mask his low catch rate and increase his reception total.
With a 55% catch rate in 2023 and a career average of only 59.8%, Metcalf faces a significant challenge in improving his efficiency. Regarding Metcalf’s prospects of finishing as a WR1 in the upcoming season, it is noteworthy that only two of the top-12 fantasy wide receivers from last season had a catch rate below 60%. The first was Mike Evans (59%), who offset his low catch rate with a league-high 13 receiving touchdowns, significantly boosting his fantasy finish. The other was Davante Adams (59%), who ranked second in the league with 175 targets and also had eight touchdowns. Given Metcalf’s career average of just under 125 targets per season over his five-year career, it seems unlikely he will lead the league in targets anytime soon. However, his yearly touchdown potential, similar to Evans, could greatly support his chances of finishing as a WR1 in 2024 and beyond.
Among the 12 wide receivers to finish as a fantasy WR1 last season, the collective average catch rate stood at 68%, which is well above Metcalf’s 2023 season and career average.
| Ranking | Player | Catch Rate |
| WR1 | CeeDee Lamb | 75% |
| WR2 | Tyreek Hill | 70% |
| WR3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 72% |
| WR4 | Puka Nacua | 66% |
| WR5 | Mike Evans | 59% |
| WR6 | DJ Moore | 71% |
| WR7 | AJ Brown | 67% |
| WR8 | Keenan Allen | 72% |
| WR9 | Nico Collins | 73% |
| WR10 | Stefon Diggs | 67% |
| WR11 | Davante Adams | 59% |
| WR12 | Deebo Samuel | 67% |
| AVG | – | 68% |
Yards & aDOT
As stated in the primer, the average depth of target (aDOT) is one of the better predictive metrics for wide receivers. Air yards are an equally significant metric because they measure the potential yards that would be produced if a player caught the ball and then was immediately tackled. Both of these statistics could be utilized to help predict a player’s potential fantasy outlook. Despite a lack of significant targets and a lower-than-desired catch rate, Metcalf excelled in making big plays in 2023. This was evident from his impressive average of 16.9 yards per catch and an aDOT of 13.7. Furthermore, Metcalf ranked 13th among wide receivers in air yards, accumulating 1,583, and 20th in yards after the catch with 370 for the season.
While these statistics and metrics are encouraging, Metcalf’s total receiving yards for the season (1,114) fell nearly 200 yards short of the five-year WR1 average in this category. Despite this shortcoming, Metcalf surpassed 1,300 receiving yards back in 2020, when he finished the season as the WR6. With an expected increase in opportunities and a new system that could better utilize him across the field as a moving target, there is good reason to believe Metcalf can once again elevate his receiving yard total significantly in 2024.
Touchdowns
DK Metcalf‘s TDs per season (2019-2023):
- 2019: 7 TDs
- 2020: 10 TDs
- 2021: 12 TDs
- 2022: 6 TDs
- 2023: 8 TDs
- AVG (2019-2023): 8.6 TDs
In fantasy football, accumulating yards alone may not hold much significance if a player fails to deliver touchdowns. However, all metrics suggest that Metcalf is poised to continue to make a significant impact in this area. Besides excelling in air yards and aDOT, Metcalf has consistently demonstrated his knack for finding the end zone throughout his career. Since being drafted in 2019, Metcalf leads all wide receivers in end zone targets. He has achieved double-digit touchdown totals in two seasons and has averaged 8.6 touchdowns over his five years in the NFL. Interestingly, his lowest touchdown total came in 2022, despite receiving the most targets (141) and recording the most receptions (90) of his career. Despite the increase in opportunities, Metcalf averaged a career-low 11.64 yards per reception. Fortunately, he rebounded last season, achieving a career-high 16.88 yards per catch, aided by standout plays like the one below.
In 2023, Metcalf received 24 end zone targets, ranking just behind CeeDee Lamb (31), Davante Adams (29), Tyreek Hill (25), Calvin Ridley (25), Amon-Ra St. Brown (25), and Jake Ferguson (25). Over 20% of Metcalf’s total targets came inside the 20-yard line, highlighting that while his overall target count may be lower than desired, a significant portion of his targets are highly valuable for fantasy purposes. Although his eight receiving touchdowns in 2023 were slightly below his career average, only seven players in the league had more. It is also notable that Seattle’s passing touchdowns dropped from 30 in 2022 to just 23 in 2023. Assuming Geno Smith improves his play in the upcoming season and the new offense progresses, Metcalf should remain the primary end-zone target for the team, reaping the associated rewards. Consequently, it is easy to envision Metcalf achieving double-digit touchdowns in 2024, returning to this benchmark after a two-year hiatus.
Conclusion
| Categories | 5-Year WR1 Averages | DK Metcalf (Career Highs) |
| Targets | 144.6 | 141 (2022) |
| Receptions | 97.4 | 90 (2022) |
| Receiving Yards | 1311 | 1,303 (2020) |
| TDs | 9.5 | 12 (2021) |
Few players seem more poised for an explosive season than DK Metcalf, ready to erupt at any moment. With his towering size, he has the potential to be among the league leaders in touchdowns every year. His speed and agility make him a constant threat to overpower and outrun defenders on any play. There is not another player quite like him in the league, and he is one of the few receivers capable of dominating fantasy football, provided he finally gets the opportunities that align with his obvious potential for elite production.
Looking at his career highs through his first five NFL seasons, it is notable that he has fallen short of the five-year WR1 averages in every category except touchdowns. However, he barely missed those marks, and this could be attributed to the old coaching regime not providing him with the same opportunities that other elite wide receivers receive annually. With a new coaching staff that has already expressed a desire to give their star wide receiver more opportunities, there is reason to believe that the 2024 season could be Metcalf’s best fantasy season since 2020 when he finished as the WR6. After consecutive seasons finishing outside the top 12 at his position, it is time for the king to reclaim his throne.
