The Fantasy Footballers’ TE Rankings Countdown: 10-1
The most important draft prep weeks for fantasy football are upon us and the Fantasy Footballers are walking through all of their consensus rankings to help fantasy managers get their strategies perfect ahead of the new season! Andy, Mike, and Jason cap off the positional rankings with possibly the hardest position group to predict in all of the fantasy landscape with the TEs!
To hear their full thoughts on the top 10 TEs, check out the August 13 episode of the podcast:
For the Ballers’ complete TE rankings and projections, make sure to get your copy of the UDK!
And for recaps of all the position groups you can find them here:
TE10 – David Njoku (CLE)
Andy: 8 | Jason: 10 | Mike: 10
ADP: 8.04 | TE10
An unexpected league winner from 2023, David Njoku will look to build on his best fantasy finish heading into 2024. Njoku went on a tear for the last 11 weeks of the fantasy season posting 10 top-12 TE finishes as the TE1 overall over that stretch. The main reason he was so productive for fantasy managers came from his elite amount of usage in Cleveland’s offense where he finished as the top-ranked TE in yards after the catch and third in targets, targets per route run, and red zone targets on the season.
While Njoku was stellar last season, there are plenty of questions about the Browns’ offense that fantasy managers will need to answer before investing in him again this year. The biggest unknown is exactly how much Deshaun Watson will make use of Njoku when he’s back under center. In the 11 games that Watson and Njoku have played together in Cleveland, he’s averaging 3.5 fantasy points per game less than without Watson under center. Luckily for fantasy managers, Njoku’s draft cost isn’t high enough where it’s a lofty investment so there could still be value in nabbing him as a later-round TE option for 2024.
TE9 – Jake Ferguson (DAL)
Andy: 11 | Jason: 8 | Mike: 9
ADP: 8.05 | TE11
Another breakout TE season came from Dallas with Jake Ferguson’s TE8 finish in 2023. Ferguson cemented his place as a high-volume target in one of the best passing offenses in the league as the clear second option for Dak Prescott with 102 targets on the season. Not only was Ferguson seeing a massive amount of targets, but the Cowboys used him in the slot a ton which led to the third-highest yards per route run in the slot among TEs last season.
For fantasy managers wanting to bet on Ferguson to repeat his 2023 success, there are plenty of reasons to support that investment. Dallas didn’t make any major improvements to their WR group in the draft or free agency and the WRs outside of CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks on the roster combined for 47 total targets. Ferguson could see some positive regression headed his way in the TD department as well based on the 25 red zone targets he saw last season that turned into just five TDs. As long as Ferguson maintains his consistent role in this high-powered passing attack, he could prove to be a value in the mid-rounds for fantasy managers this season.
TE8 – Kyle Pitts (ATL)
Andy: 7 | Jason: 9 | Mike: 8
ADP: 5.11 | TE6
It feels like every draft season the fantasy community talks themselves back into Kyle Pitts breaking out for fantasy rosters, but this year feels a little different. Pitts has been underwhelming since he entered the league with his rookie finish as the TE7 being the pinnacle of his fantasy career so far. As underwhelming as it feels, Pitts still hasn’t turned 24 and only Jason Witten and Rob Gronkowski had more receiving yards as a TE than he has in his first three seasons.
The reason for optimism for Pitts’ fantasy arrival centers around the two main changes that were made in Atlanta over the offseason: QB Kirk Cousins signing as a free agent and the hiring of Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson. Cousins will be a huge upgrade at QB for Pitts who has dealt with the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke over the last two seasons. When Pitts had the end-of-career version of Matt Ryan in 2021, it was his most productive fantasy season and only year surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. While Cousins is a huge piece to the puzzle, Robinson’s offensive philosophy may be just as important to Pitts’ fantasy success. In 2023, the Falcons ran 11 personnel fewer than any other team in the league and Robinson is expected to be nearly the polar opposite as a play caller. If Pitts ends up being used more in the slot, it could be a huge opportunity for him to finally return the fantasy success that we’ve been waiting to see.
TE7 – George Kittle (SF)
Andy: 9 | Jason: 7 | Mike: 5
ADP: 6.02 | TE7
Perhaps the most roller coaster of a TE option fantasy managers are willing to consistently have on their rosters comes in George Kittle. Kittle has finished as a top-five TE in five of his last six seasons. In 2023 though, it felt like an all-or-nothing type of season for fantasy managers. Kittle finished as a top-nine TE nine different weeks and in the other seven weeks finished at TE20 or worse. The weirdest splits Kittle had from 2023 include the fact that his TDs only came when San Francisco won games and that losses saw higher yardage.
Getting a TE option like Kittle is a tough debate for fantasy managers at his current ADP. While there is some built-in ceiling with an athlete like Kittle in such a high-powered offense, fantasy managers have to be able to withstand the down weeks that are certain to come with the nature of the TE position but with a much higher draft cost. There is potential for Kittle’s role to be expanded if the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk, so if fantasy managers are willing to bet on an increased role in 2024, it could pay off if big changes come in San Francisco.
TE6 – Evan Engram (JAX)
Andy: 6 | Jason: 6 | Mike: 6
ADP: 6.12 | TE8
The move to Jacksonville has been a great one for Evan Engram after finishing as a top-six TE in both of his seasons with the Jaguars with the pinnacle coming last season as the TE2 overall. Engram has been a PPR machine for fantasy rosters with 114 receptions in 2023. For context, the only players in the NFL with more receptions last season were CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. Cap it off with Engram finishing 2023 with top-12 TE finishes in five of his last six games, and it’s hard to believe Engram isn’t ranked higher based on that production alone.
If there’s room for improvement from Engram in 2024, it would be seeing an increase in TDs. Engram went 12 full weeks last season before finding pay dirt and only finished with four on the season after having five end zone targets the entire year. Jacksonville does have 27 end zone targets that left the team this offseason with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones leaving via free agency, so there’s a chance Engram could capture some of those and increase his ceiling. Engram has also been listed as the Jaguars’ starting slot WR in the preseason, where 37.6% of the team’s targets went last season. Given where he’s currently going in drafts, Engram feels like a player with a steady floor who provides the potential for another top-three finish.
TE5 – Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
Andy: 4 | Jason: 4 | Mike: 7
ADP: 5.03 | TE5
The 2023 NFL Draft class provided the fantasy community with new life to inject into the TE landscape which starts with Dalton Kincaid. After being drafted in the first round by the Bills, Kincaid put together a strong rookie season recording the fourth-most receptions ever for a rookie TE and giving fantasy managers seven top-12 finishes. What might be more exciting is that Kincaid worked out of the slot for 50% of his snaps and saw 60% of his targets when lined up there. Buffalo threw 37.5% of their targets to the slot, so the more work Kincaid can see there, the higher his floor could be from week to week.
For Kincaid to return on the high draft cost that fantasy managers are having to pay to get him this season, he’ll need to take a step forward in getting into the end zone. The Bills have 284 vacated targets from last season so there should be plenty of work for Kincaid to be considered the top receiving option for the offense. What will be more important to see is if he can turn into a bigger red zone target after only seeing two last season. The reality is that Kincaid stands a chance to be a lead option in a passing game with little competition around him which could pay off big time for fantasy managers this season.
TE4 – Trey McBride (ARI)
Andy: 3 | Jason: 5 | Mike: 1
ADP: 4.11 | TE3
Speaking of realizing potential from a young player, Trey McBride made the most of his opportunity last season finishing as the TE9 on the year. What’s exciting about McBride’s finish is that most of his production really only came after Week 6, so the ceiling could have been even higher had he been involved for the entire season. McBride was an efficiency monster though, finishing with 2.03 yards per route run which put him second among TEs in the league.
For McBride to return on the high hopes for him in 2024, fantasy managers will want to see him continue to receive the massive amount of targets he had last season – a lot of which came on plays designed to get him involved. McBride saw the third-most receptions on “screen plays” last season and finished with the most yards after catch for a TE on those plays, averaging 3.33 yards per screen route run. The only gripe there could be about McBride this season is concern about how the target balance between him and first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. plays out in what many are expecting to be a much improved offensive unit and one fantasy managers will want a piece of by the year’s end.
TE3 – Mark Andrews (BAL)
Andy: 5 | Jason: 2 | Mike: 2
ADP: 5.01 | TE4
What felt like a disappointing season for Mark Andrews still ended up in a TE12 finish on the year. It’s tough to remember, but Andrews was the TE3 for fantasy before going down to injury after Week 11 and was on a 17-game pace for nearly 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. Andrews was most valuable for the Ravens in the red zone, where he saw 35% of the team’s targets and was the first read on the play in nearly every one of them.
It’s clear Andrews is the main receiving option for Baltimore and they didn’t do a ton in the offseason to add competition around Andrews to scare fantasy managers off again this year. If anything there may be an increase in the work he sees with talk of possibly more 12-personnel for the Ravens’ offense. Last season when Baltimore ran plays with two TEs on the field, Andrews saw a target on 30% of his routes and averaged 3.55 yards per route run. If the Ravens’ offense takes the step forward that the fantasy community is hoping they will, Andrews may be undervalued this draft season with the potential to be the TE1 in his range of outcomes.
TE2 – Sam LaPorta (DET)
Andy: 2 | Jason: 3 | Mike: 3
ADP: 3.01 | TE1
The surprise TE1 season from Sam LaPorta sent him from a fringe draft pick in redraft leagues to a league-winning type of player last season. LaPorta was highly involved in the Lions’ offense last season from the jump, never seeing less than 72% of snaps during the fantasy season (he played 40% of snaps in Week 18). All LaPorta did was break a handful of rookie TE records including the most receptions (86) and tying Rob Gronkowski with the most TDs for a rookie TE (10), all while recording the second-most TE first downs and routes run as a rookie TE.
While fantasy managers know the ceiling is clearly there for LaPorta, there should be some caution in drafting him at his current market price. Based on his yardage, there could be some TD regression coming for LaPorta in his sophomore season. Over the last decade, every TE with 10+ TDs and under 900 yards scored fewer TDs their next season by at least three. Fantasy managers having to give up a third-round pick in redraft leagues is a tough ask, but being tied to one of the better offenses in the league should set a high floor for LaPorta in 2024.
TE1 – Travis Kelce (KC)
Andy: 1 | Jason: 1 | Mike: 4
ADP: 3.02 | TE2
Copy and paste – Travis Kelce is still the pinnacle of the TE position for fantasy football. Since 2014, Kelce hasn’t finished lower than the TE8 and has been a top-three TE for eight straight seasons. All that said, Kelce is aging and his numbers began to reflect that in 2023, posting a career low in yards per reception and his lowest average depth of target and TDs since 2016. All that said, Kelce’s involvement in the playoffs can’t be forgotten since he didn’t see a target share lower than 24% for the Chiefs’ entire Super Bowl run.
The shift in Kansas City’s offense has given the fantasy community a bit of pause though, with Kelce’s draft price at its latest since 2018. There are new pieces that could lower the ceiling for Kelce in the Chiefs’ offense with the team investing a first-round pick in speedy WR Xavier Worthy and second-year WR Rashee Rice looking more likely to be available for the entire season after some worries he could be suspended due to off the field issues. There’s a chance Kansas City could do some load management with Kelce to save his body for another playoff run, but when you have a player that you’ve never seen fail to deliver for the better part of a decade, it’s hard to bet against.