The Fantasy Footballers’ RB Rankings Countdown: 20-11
As we inch closer to draft season, the Ballers are walking through their pre-draft rankings to make sure you’re ready for the big day! Andy, Mike, and Jason have already worked through their WR rankings so we’re on to the position that has traditionally been the meat and potatoes of fantasy football – RUNNING BACKS!
To hear their complete breakdown of RBs 11-20 in their consensus rankings, check out the August 8 episode of the podcast:
For the most in-depth breakdown of each of these players, be sure to get the UDK to be the most prepared (and good-looking) person in your league’s draft!
RB20 – Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Andy: RB20 | Jason: RB21 | Mike: RB24
ADP: 6.08 | RB22
The follow-up to his breakout campaign from 2022 when Rhamondre Stevenson finished as the RB11 was underwhelming, to say the least. Stevenson’s 2023 season left much to be desired based on what fantasy managers invested in him during draft season, finishing as the RB36 on the year. It wasn’t all bad for Stevenson last season because he provided seven top-24 RB weeks for fantasy managers before missing the last four games of the season.
If there’s hope for Stevenson to return to regular fantasy relevance this season, the change under center for the Patriots could be a good start. Since 2011, when a team has a rookie QB start 10 or more games, 59% of the time their starting RB finishes in the top 24 with teams choosing to lean on the run more. Stevenson doesn’t have a ton of competition behind him outside of Antonio Gibson who was brought in via free agency, so he could end up being a volume-based RB2 for fantasy managers this season.
RB19 – Josh Jacobs (GB)
Andy: RB20 | Jason: RB21 | Mike: RB24
ADP: 3.02 | RB11
Speaking of a shift from season to season, Josh Jacobs had probably the biggest dropoff from 2022 to 2023 finishing as the RB27 after being the RB3 the year prior. Jacobs has always been a volume RB, averaging 21.4 opportunities through his first five seasons. The problem in 2023 was that he was awful in making the most of those opportunities, averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and finishing dead last in PFF’s elusive rating. While Jacobs may have just had a bad year on a bad offense, there’s still enough smoke here to have fantasy managers worried that he could be on the decline and his best days behind him.
There is a bright spot for Jacobs heading into 2024, mainly due to his much improved offensive situation thanks to his move to Green Bay in free agency. The Packers’ offense ranked inside the top eight in points per game, yards per play, third down conversion rate, and red zone plays per game last season which is a huge improvement from the Las Vegas offense that didn’t finish in the top half of the league in any of those metrics. If Jacobs ends up being the lead back the Packers paid him to be, there still may be top-12 upside for Jacobs this season.
RB18 – Raheem Mostert (MIA)
Andy: RB17 | Jason: RB14 | Mike: RB23
ADP: 7.08 | RB25
It’s weird to think about the previous season’s RB2 being drafted outside of the top 10 RBs, but Raheem Mostert feels like a pretty unique case. Prior to 2023, Mostert had only finished a season inside the top 24 once, way back in 2019, but to be fair, the lowest he’s ever finished when playing 12 or more games was the RB26. Mostert was an efficient monster last season with 49% of his fantasy points coming from TDs, which is the highest of any top-12 RB since 2008. That could serve as a warning for some regression coming Mostert’s way in the TD department and in the only three games where he didn’t score a TD in 2023 he never scored over 10 points.
Looking toward 2024, Mostert could still provide some draft day value for fantasy managers since he’s still going in the RB dead zone, mainly thanks to most analysts projecting an increase in work from second-year RB De’Von Achane. Even if Mostert doesn’t see the 57% of snaps that he did last season, there’s still a good chance that he could be a solid RB2 for most fantasy rosters because he’s an important part of one of the best offenses in the league.
RB17 – James Conner (ARI)
Andy: RB18 | Jason: RB17 | Mike: RB15
ADP: 5.12 | RB19
Another elder statesman in the RB rankings comes with James Conner. While Conner may not be the sexiest pick for fantasy managers filling their RB room, he was an extremely solid option when he was on the field in 2023, finishing as a top-24 RB in eight of the 13 games he played in, including six top-12 finishes. What’s exciting for fantasy managers is that after Kyler Murray returned to the starting QB role for Arizona, Conner was at his best, rattling off five straight top-12 RB finishes to end the season.
Making the bet that Conner can continue being productive for fantasy rosters is easier knowing that there isn’t a real threat behind him on the depth chart to take significant snaps away from him. The only threat truly could eat into Conner’s workload would be the Cardinals’ third-round pick from this year’s draft, Trey Benson. While Conner will surely miss some time at some point this season due to injury, he should still be the workhorse in Arizona for at least another season to provide a solid RB2 option for fantasy rosters.
RB16 – Kenneth Walker (SEA)
Andy: RB19 | Jason: RB18 | Mike: RB9
ADP: 5.02 | RB16
All the fears that Kenneth Walker would be supplanted as the lead RB in Seattle last season never came to fruition. While Walker only played 54% of snaps on the season, he was clearly the team’s preferred back in the red zone with 73% of their RB snaps and all of the running back TDs. Despite the large steps backward that the Seattle offense took last season, Walker still found a way to be productive for fantasy managers, so any movement in the right direction in 2024 could mean much better things for his fantasy outlook.
Possibly the biggest concern with Walker this season is a new coaching staff in Seattle and being uncertain how they might plan to integrate second-year RB Zach Charbonnet into the offense, especially in the passing game. New to the team, Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb has made comments about Walker’s ability as a pass-catcher so there’s a chance he could maintain the lead-back role even with new staff taking over. The question fantasy managers really have to ask themselves is how comfortable they may be with Walker being an RB1 on their roster given his current draft price and how their team build ends up. If Walker can take a step forward in an improved Seattle offense, he could be a mid-round gem for fantasy managers.
RB15 – Joe Mixon (HOU)
Andy: RB11 | Jason: RB16 | Mike: RB17
ADP: 4.11 | RB15
One of the biggest offseason moves at RB has to be the Texans’ addition of Joe Mixon to their offense. Mixon is best described as steady but not flashy over the last several years in Cincinnati where he led the NFL in carries inside the 10, which resulted in eight TDs. If there was an offense that could use a boost in their running game it’s in Houston where they finished dead last at the position last season in fantasy points. Adding a talented veteran like Mixon to their backfield should be an improvement to a unit that fantasy managers are excited to have a piece of this season.
While Mixon in Houston feels like a great opportunity for fantasy gold, there still has to be concern about exactly how high his ceiling could be. Texans Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik used formations with two RBs at the fourth-highest rate in the league last season, a formation in which Mixon only carried the ball three times last season with the Bengals. Mixon may be an RB2 who has some RB1 upside, but at his current draft cost he may not be a realistic option come draft season.
RB14 – Alvin Kamara (NO)
Andy: RB15 | Jason: RB13 | Mike: RB14
ADP: 5.05 | RB17
Fantasy managers would be hard-pressed to find a more consistent fantasy RB over the last seven seasons than Alvin Kamara. Since 2017, Kamara has been the RB18 or better at the end of each season, though there has been some dropoff over the last two years. The cheat code for Kamara is still the extremely high amount of work he sees in the passing game. Last season, Kamara was targeted on 32% of the routes he ran, which was fourth highest in the league among all players regardless of position.
While it’s hard to bet against a player who’s been as good as Kamara, he is approaching the age cliff for RBs and has declined in both yards per carry and yards per target over the last four seasons. Despite all that, there doesn’t seem to be any real competition for Kamara emerging in New Orleans to take work away from him this season. As long as Kamara continues to be the main back in this Saints offense, there’s a chance he could return on his value yet again for fantasy managers in 2024.
RB13 – Rachaad White (TB)
Andy: RB10 | Jason: RB15 | Mike: RB13
ADP: 4.03 | RB13
It was quite the massive step forward for Rachaad White in 2023 after being pretty irrelevant for his entire rookie season. White averaged 21.8 opportunities, over 100 yards per game, and 15.9 fantasy points per game as the main RB in Tampa Bay last season. Where White really made his money for fantasy managers was in the passing game where he ran the most routes for any RB in the league and finished with the fourth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards at the position. The biggest gripe for White comes in the efficiency numbers where he averaged just 3.64 yards per carry, which was the lowest for a top-15 RB over the last five years.
If the efficiency metrics don’t scare fantasy managers, there’s still a chance that White could be a major factor for fantasy rosters again this season, mainly due to the lack of competition in the Buccaneers’ RB room. Tampa Bay did draft an RB on day three of the NFL draft, but there doesn’t seem to be a real threat to eat into his workload, at least to start the season. Fantasy managers will have to pay a higher price for White this season than they did last year to take the risk of the subpar efficiency metrics from last season, so there’s much more risk to having him on your roster again this year.
RB12 – James Cook (BUF)
Andy: RB8 | Jason: RB12 | Mike: RB16
ADP: 4.07 | RB14
There probably wasn’t more of a tale of two halves of the season at the RB position last season than what we saw from James Cook. When the Bills made their change to Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator after Week 10, Cook saw nearly six more opportunities per game, increasing his fantasy points per game by 4.4. What’s more encouraging for Cook was his involvement in the passing game under Brady where he saw a target on 22.6% of his routes, which is an elite amount of targets to see for an RB.
Moving into 2024, there’s plenty of speculation around the Bills’ offense and how they may or may not be able to continue the run they went on down the stretch of the season last year. Buffalo is vacating 284 targets from WRs in 2023, which has historically meant more targets going to the teams’ RBs in subsequent years. If Cook can see an increase in usage inside the red zone running the ball, he could turn into a must-have back on fantasy rosters as a lead back on one of the league’s best offenses.
RB11 – De’Von Achane (MIA)
Andy: RB13 | Jason: RB10 | Mike: RB12
ADP: 2.10 | RB9
Arguably the most electric player at the RB position in the league is De’Von Achane, to the point that Jason included him in his FIRE picks for the season. Achane lit the fantasy world on fire last season with three top-five RB finishes in his first four games before missing five of six games in the middle of the season. Even though he only played in 11 games last season, Achane was on pace for over 200 opportunities. If Achane can see that same pace of opportunities come his way this season, he could only increase his ability to make explosive plays on a weekly basis for fantasy managers.
Looking forward to 2024 and Achane’s ceiling, the Miami coaching staff has made it clear that he’s a crucial piece to what they want to do moving forward and they don’t feel Achane is content with the production he was able to display for the Dolphins as a rookie. Between Mostert and Achane in 2023, they scored 26 rushing TDs. If Achane gets even two or three of those Mostert TDs this season, along with any increase in the passing game, a top-12 RB finish is a realistic outcome with an even higher ceiling if he can stay healthy throughout the year.