The Fantasy Footballers’ Early RB Rankings: 20-11
It’s beginning to look a lot like football time! The 2024 NFL Draft will start in less than 10 days and it’s time to take an early look at how the positional rankings have been affected by a crazy free agency season.
Andy, Mike, and Jason have been analyzing all these moves as well as possible rookie landing spots to provide the Foot Clan with their early positional rankings. They have already discussed wide receivers and in case you missed it, you can go over those rankings in these articles by Joe Beldner for WRs 20-11 and Blaise Winn for WRs 10-1.
Now it’s time to overview the running back position. Keep in mind that these rankings are like a live organism in constant change, and there will surely be some considerable moves after the draft and during the rest of the offseason. In the latest episode of the podcast, the Ballers revealed their early RB20-11 rankings, sharing opinions, concerns, and possible range of outcomes. Let’s go over them.
Note: All statistics used are half-PPR scoring per the Ballers’ Consistency Charts found at JointheFoot.com. Additionally, these rankings do not include incoming rookies.
Want to dig deeper into running backs? Make sure to check out the UDK+ on The Fantasy Footballers website. You can find more detailed player breakdowns, videos, and rankings.
20. (tied) James Conner (ARI)
Age: 29.0
Best Ball ADP: RB20
Andy: 17 | Jason: 23 | Mike: 20
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
13
208
1040
7
33
27
165
2
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB18
It’s interesting how the RB age cliff has been challenged by some veterans these past few years by players like Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, and of course, James Conner. His career had an unexpected resurgence in Arizona and this year he will once again be an intriguing draft pick.
There’s a chance the Cardinals take a leap forward offensively this season, and that’s good for touchdown opportunities. There might be some new offensive talent joining the Cardinals, such as rookie WR sensation Marvin Harrison Jr., plus Kyler Murray will be back to start the season as QB, the offensive line has been improved, and the depth chart behind Conner is composed of names like Deejay Dallas, Michael Carter, and Emari Demercado. Despite all this, his ADP will most likely not rise very far from the fifth round or so. Why? Because he will miss games. He has never played a full season, due to his violent running style and the amount of work he handles when he is on the field. He might be hard to trust as your RB1 but he could be a very solid RB2 this season.
20. (tied) David Montgomery (DET)
The guys will discuss David Montgomery along with Jahmyr Gibbs in the next episode, so let’s take a rain check on him and jump to the next RB.
18. (tied) Aaron Jones (MIN)
Age: 29.4
Best Ball ADP: RB18
Andy: 21 | Jason: 15 | Mike: 17
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
11
142
656
2
43
30
233
1
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB37
Things look a little complicated for Aaron Jones’ fantasy outlook. He is 29 years old, on a new team, with a bad quarterback. But is he done? Last year he had a pretty good stretch run over the final month of the season, and during the playoffs, he rushed for over 100 yards in five straight games.
After trying (and failing) to fill the Dalvin Cook role with Alexander Mattison, the Vikings brought in Aaron Jones via free agency and he seems to be the guy now. At least he will have the opportunity to maintain this valuable role in what might be a bad offense. The question is if the Dalvin Cook role is still a thing because running backs under Kevin O’Connell have not been great. Minnesota has finished 30th in rushing percentage the past two seasons and last year they couldn’t even score any touchdowns on the ground. There’s also the existence of Ty Chandler as a potential threat to Aaron Jones’ volume. All of these reasons might make him a risky draft pick at RB18, despite his talent.
18. (tied) James Cook (BUF)
Age: 24.6
Best Ball ADP: RB12
Andy: 16 | Jason: 21 | Mike: 16
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
17
237
1122
2
54
44
445
4
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB11
Everyone talks about Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir benefiting from Stefon Diggs‘ departure, but James Cook is a big part of the Bills’ offense and he might also get an uptick in the target department. This could help him become a less volatile player because the problem with Cook so far has been his lack of rushing touchdowns. He has only scored four times on the ground in his career. It would be great to see him turn into the next Austin Ekeler, but right now his RB12 ADP might be too pricey unless he scores more rushing TDs or gets around 80+ targets.
When an important wide receiver leaves a huge chunk of vacated targets, usually some of them go to the receiving back. James Cook is really good at catching the ball, so things could actually go his way. After having finished as the RB11 with so few rushing TDs, imagine what he might do if the Bills start giving him more goal line opportunities. It might seem scary, but he is a very talented back, at a perfect age, in a high-powered offense. James Cook might be a league winner who is being drafted at his floor.
17. Alvin Kamara (NO)
Age: 28.7
Best Ball ADP: RB17
Andy: 19 | Jason: 14 | Mike: 19
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
13
180
694
5
86
75
466
1
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB14
Jason is considerably more bullish on Alvin Kamara than Mike and Andy. His case? After being suspended for five games, Kamara managed to finish as the RB14. This season he will be playing with the same quarterback who targeted him on 32% of his routes (top five among all players in the NFL) and with more or less the same WR corps. Even if they add someone new, we shouldn’t worry about target competition.
Now the downside. He didn’t look good and was very inefficient. He averaged only 3.9 yards per carry with his longest run of the season being 17 yards, and he had only one receiving touchdown. Yet, he finished most weeks as an RB1 and he only finished outside of the top 24 once. So even at his age and playing in a bad offense, he should be a safe floor play due to the amount of targets he gets.
16. Raheem Mostert (MIA)
Age: 32.0
Best Ball ADP: RB24
Andy: 18 | Jason: 13 | Mike: 18
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
15
209
1012
18
32
25
175
3
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB2
We need to start embracing the idea that this year we will be playing a lot of old running backs. If you think Kamara is old, don’t forget that Raheem Mostert is 32 years old and just finished as the RB2, scoring 21 TDs (more than what he had scored in his whole career) in 15 games. Let’s keep in mind that touchdowns are not a sticky stat and chances are that Mostert won’t score as many times this season. But he is still very fast, he plays in a very good offense, and he got paid, so he will get a lot of goal line opportunities. It’s safe to say that he should score around 10 rushing touchdowns and that’s enough to consider him a great value at his current RB24 ADP.
15. Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
Age: 23.5
Best Ball ADP: RB16
Andy: 15 | Jason: 17 | Mike: 11
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
15
219
905
8
37
29
259
1
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB19
A controversial and confusing player, Kenneth Walker finished as RB16 in 2022 and RB19 in 2023. He can sometimes look great with the ball in his hands, but he seems to be capped by his little involvement in the passing game. He makes a lot of mistakes, but his athleticism and strength help him overcome those mistakes frequently by scoring touchdowns. The good news is that the Seahawks’ new head coach, Mike Macdonald, said the team will be committed to running the ball in 2024, and Zach Charbonnet wasn’t as good as everyone expected when he had the opportunity, so Kenneth Walker should maintain the bigger part of the timeshare. He should have huge games, and according to Mike, he is young and explosive enough to outperform his ADP.
14. Derrick Henry (BAL)
Age: 30.3
Best Ball ADP: RB10
Andy: 11 | Jason: 18 | Mike: 14
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
17
280
1167
12
36
28
214
0
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB8
Let’s talk about another one of these old RBs we’ll be drafting in the early rounds this year. Derrick Henry had a terrible 2023 season in which he finished as the RB8. He now goes to a better situation in Baltimore. Last season, Gus Edwards managed to finish inside the top 24 by only scoring touchdowns. Henry should be more involved than that but don’t expect him to have a huge volume. The Ravens are Super Bowl contenders, so it’s safe to assume that they won’t overwork their star running back through the course of the season. But even if he only gets the goal line work (which obviously won’t be the case), that gives him a nice floor.
His upside will depend on how they use him. He is not a pass-catching specialist so they might end up using some of their other options on passing downs. But right now Keaton Mitchell is injured and their only other option is Justice Hill, so they might be forced to use Henry more unless they add someone else in the draft. Derrick Henry is currently a safe floor RB2.
13. Joe Mixon (HOU)
Age: 27.7
Best Ball ADP: RB15
Andy: 14 | Jason: 12 | Mike: 15
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
17
257
1034
9
64
52
376
3
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB5
The Houston Texans signed Joe Mixon and he will have the opportunity to once again be the RB1 for a good offense. He might not be as explosive or efficient as before, but he led the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard mark last season with 39 attempts and eight TDs. If Devin Singletary had success in this offensive scheme, a bigger, more versatile player like Joe Mixon should be a very reliable running back, at least on the ground.
The question is: will he get enough targets? Last season, Houston had the second-fewest targets thrown to running backs and was dead last in fantasy points scored by the RB position. With the addition of Stefon Diggs to the WR corps, RB targets could still be a concern. Or who knows? Maybe C.J. Stroud will feel more confident checking the ball down to Joe Mixon than he did to Pierce and Singletary. Time will tell, but he should see the majority of the rushing volume.
12. Josh Jacobs (GB)
Age: 26.2
Best Ball ADP: RB9
Andy: 12 | Jason: 16 | Mike: 8
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
13
233
805
6
54
37
296
0
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB27
Josh Jacobs didn’t look great in 2023. He had a very bad season averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per carry, just one year after leading the NFL in rushing. Green Bay usually makes good coaching decisions. Now they got rid of Aaron Jones and brought Jacobs to sort of rejuvenate their lead back. They clearly believe in him but they structured his contract in a way that they could release him in a year if things don’t work out. This is a little concerning, but if he can bounce back from his inefficient 2023 season, he should get a workhorse load, which is a rare thing to see these days.
11. Rachaad White (TB)
Age: 25.3
Best Ball ADP: RB13
Andy: 10 | Jason: 11 | Mike: 13
2023 Stats:
Games
Att
Rush Yds
Rush TDs
Tgts
Rec
Rec Yds
Rec TDs
17
272
990
6
70
64
549
3
2023 Fantasy Finish: RB7
“Baby CMC” was great for fantasy last season. The Buccaneers brought back Chase Edmonds to have the backup RB role, which means they’re not looking to draft a running back. Baker Mayfield loves throwing the ball to Rachaad White. He was targeted 70 times and he caught 91% of those passes. He might not be very explosive on the ground, but the passing volume is just too good, and his yards per completion are much better than other pass-catching specialists like Alvin Kamara.
The only way things could go south for Rachaad White is if he loses some of the passing volume because his efficiency on the ground is far from great. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and had only seven runs over 15 yards on 272 attempts. He needs to maintain his amount of touches to pay off his current ADP.