The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to the fantasy semifinals. Let’s Go! Week 16 is here, and you didn’t just stumble into this spot… you earned it. Well, unless, of course, you started Kyle Pitts last week, then you really just experienced a fantasy miracle. Congratulations, nonetheless. You have built one of the top teams in your league, and now it’s time to push for the championship. If you are like most fantasy managers, you probably still have a Start/Sit question or two bouncing around in your head. That’s where I come in. I’m here to help you make the toughest calls using the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit tool so you can move on to Week 17. Good luck, and I’ll see you back here next week as we battle it out for the trophy.
Jacoby Brissett or Joe Burrow?
Y’all… we’ve been here before. Jacoby Brissett keeps producing for fantasy managers, and somehow, he still doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Well, the Beef Brisket is smoking hot and somehow keeps getting better the longer he cooks. Dude just threw for 249 yds and three TDs against Houston. Yes, the Texans, who’ve shut down just about everybody. Brissett marched into Houston and showed them what real BBQ is made of. Arizona’s offense moves through Brissett’s arm, so they let him rip: 40+ attempts week after week. Atlanta has allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing QBs in three straight games, and we get the cherry on top with a dome game in December. No weather. No nonsense. He’s Mike’s Start of the Week for a reason. When your season’s on the line, this is the profile you want. You want points you can depend on so you can live to fight in the championship round.
Will Jacoby Brissett have MORE or LESS than 243.5 pass yards vs the Falcons? #ad Fantasy Faceoff is sponsored by @PrizePicks pic.twitter.com/Uf62hWqww6
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 19, 2025
Joe Burrow, meanwhile, is coming off, let’s just call it what it was: a nightmare. 5.5 fantasy points, zero TDs, two INTs, and a shutout at home. If you survived that and still made the semifinals, congrats. That’s a fantasy miracle. Before that Ravens faceplant, though, Burrow put up 19.2 and 23.4 fantasy points in his two previous games. Last week wasn’t a trend – it was one brutal week. Now he gets Miami in a game with a 47.5 total, facing a defense that ranks 21st against QBs and just lost Minkah Fitzpatrick. Cincinnati may be eliminated from playoff contention, but HC Zac Taylor has already said Burrow will start the rest of the season. This feels like a “silence the haters” spot. Burrow has talked about needing to have fun again, and this matchup sets up perfectly for a rebound. Do you love trusting him on the road after that clunker? No. Do you bench a healthy, motivated Joe Burrow in a high-total game with nothing to lose? Also no. Are you going to feel great about it after he finished QB29 last week? Again no. Burrow is a gutsy start, but if you trust the talent and the matchup, he should be slotted in ahead of Brissett this week.
Verdict: Brissett is the safer play, the calm, high-floor option when you just need points and peace of mind. He been a top-12 QB since taking over for Kyler. That’s hard to bench. Burrow is the uneasy start, but still a start, if you’re chasing ceiling. Sometimes the answer isn’t as clear-cut as one or the other.
Michael Carter or Audric Estime?
Let’s start with Estime. Rule No. 1: play RBs against the Jets. New York ranks 31st against RBs and has been bleeding production, giving up 40+ fantasy points to the position in three straight games. With Devin Neal and Alvin Kamara both out, Estime and Evan Hull split snaps, but Estime was the one getting looks in the passing game. The split workload is the one thing holding him back… but the matchup is elite. Jason stamping him as his Start of the Week tells you how hard this spot is to ignore.
Audric Estime time?? pic.twitter.com/Wqo03kiyIw
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) December 18, 2025
Now for Michael Carter. He’s the last man standing in Arizona. Demercado just returned from injury and may not be 100%, and the usage strongly favors Carter. When Bam Knight went down, Carter stepped into 80% of the snaps, handled 18 touches, and stayed heavily involved as a receiver (63% route share, 10% target share). Demercado played just seven snaps. The matchup against Atlanta is fine, not scary, but not a smash spot either. Volume is king, BUT Arizona throws the ball so much that this isn’t the kind of volume that gets you excited. They are favored, though, which opens the door for late-game carries and dump-off targets.
Verdict: I get the appeal for Estime. The Jets matchup is disgusting (in a good way), and Jason’s Start of the Week stamp makes it tempting. Estime could smash or split just enough work to leave you frustrated. Carter, on the other hand, looks like the workhorse on a team that can move the ball, score points, and control the clock. Arizona being favored in this matchup helps, too. Give me Michael Carter this week.
Emeka Egbuka or Jayden Reed?
Is there reason to be concerned about Egbuka? Yes. The production hasn’t been there lately. Just how bad is it? He’s only scored one TD since Week 5 and is averaging only 3.7 catches and 47 receiving yards since Gronk butchered his name. A lot of the slump isn’t entirely on him, though. Sure, there have been drops, but Baker Mayfield’s accuracy has dipped dramatically. Mayfield has been playing through injury, and it’s showing. The biggest issue? Competition. Last week’s 4-for-64 on seven targets was his best yardage since Week 10, which is encouraging… but it came with Mike Evans leading the team in targets, Godwin leading in snaps and routes, and Jalen McMillan back in the mix. That’s a crowded room. The matchup with Carolina is fine (13th vs WRs), and it’s a must-win spot for Tampa, but he is no longer the auto-start he once was.
Now flip it to Jayden Reed. Both Reed and Christian Watson practiced, and LaFleur called Watson’s status “encouraging,” but it’s still a medical call on Saturday. Even if Watson plays, he’s not going to be 100%. That’s a win for Reed. When Reed has been healthy, the role has been legit. In the three full games he’s played this season, no Packer has earned more targets than Reed. Last week, he went 5-for-6 for 55 yards against a tough Broncos defense. This week? Way better spot. The Bears have been destroyed by slot WRs all season. They allow the 4th-most receiving yards to slot receivers, where Reed operates out of 70% of the time. The Packers are banged up, and this divisional game actually matters.
Verdict: Jayden Reed. While Reed’s role is growing, Egbuka’s is shrinking. The matchup fits his skillset perfectly, and the path to a ceiling game is much clearer.
Ah, the Vet vs the Rookie. A tale as old as time. Let’s start with Waller. The Walrus found the end zone twice last week. Yes, it was garbage time. No, we do not care. Garbage time still counts the same. And honestly? That same script is very much on the table again against the Bengals. That’s why so many of you picked Waller up in the first place… the schedule. Cincinnati is a matchup we have been targeting all year. Now, here’s the issue this week. Quinn Ewers is the one throwing the passes. Not Tua (who isn’t hurt, he’s been demoted to QB3). So yeah, there are real questions. Can Ewers sustain drives? Will he lock onto Waller? Can this offense function at all? Totally fair concerns. But if Ewers is going to have any safety blanket in this matchup, it’s going to be the big veteran TE he can dump off to when things break down.
Darren Waller, the Rapper, with 22.1 points and the TE3 on the week? Why not! https://t.co/aUISWvTNqS
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 16, 2025
Let’s look at the alternative. Tyler Warren has 44-year-old Philip Rivers driving this offense. I’m not sure that’s better or worse than Ewers. Last week, Warren saw six targets but only hauled in three for 19 yards. That’s not exactly inspiring. This is a high-stakes game, with both the Colts and 49ers fighting to lock up a playoff spot. It’s also an MNF showdown, so the spotlight will be bright. With Rivers under center, the path of least resistance is obvious: lean on Jonathan Taylor. And honestly, why wouldn’t they? The 49ers have been vulnerable on the ground, allowing 130+ rushing yds to RBs in each of their last two games. JT should feast. Warren’s recent numbers have been unstartable, with single-digit fantasy scores in three of his last four.
Verdict: The Bengals are still a defense we attack, especially against TEs. If Quinn Ewers is going to survive at all, he’s going to lean on the big veteran TE when things break down. Waller is the safety blanket. Tyler Warren, meanwhile, is trending the wrong way at the worst possible time. Three single-digit fantasy finishes in his last four games, Philip Rivers at the controls, and a game plan that screams a Jonathan Taylor RB1 week. It’s not pretty, but it’s your Top Play: start Darren Waller. Goo Goo Gachu.
You didn’t get here by accident. You earned it with smart moves, patience, and a whole lot of Start/Sit stress. Use these takes, trust the process, and don’t be afraid to make the tough calls. If you want a second opinion before lock, drop a comment or hit me up on X ! And make sure you are leaning on the Ballers’ Start/Sit tool, weekly rankings, and Mike’s Sunday Start/Sit show for those last-minute pivots. Good luck in Week 16. Go win, and I’ll see you right back here next week!