Ten Things We Learned in Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
One week. That’s all that stands between a fantasy football season of disappointment and a playoff berth. Many of us in the Footclan need a win this upcoming week to secure a postseason spot. Some of us have already clinched and can take the next week to reconfigure our rosters for the first round of the playoffs. With six teams on a bye this week and the championship trophy in sight, now more than ever, we have to take what we learned from the previous week of NFL action and apply that knowledge moving forward. Here’s a look back at the highs and lows of Week 13.
Bucky Goes Boom
On Monday’s edition of the show, the fellas examined which running backs are getting more opportunities in the second half of the season compared to the start, and Bucky Irving‘s name took center stage. Irving was averaging 12 opportunities a game through the first nine weeks of the season and that number has gone up to over 20 a game over the last three weeks. Irving finished as the RB1 this week (excluding the Monday night game), rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts on Sunday against Carolina. He added three catches for 33 yards. While the snap counts shares with Rachaad White have stayed pretty much 50-50, Irving is more than doubling White in opportunities. Even in the pass-catching arena, where White typically dominates, is starting to lean toward Irving. The schedule the rest of the way, minus a game against the Chargers, is mouthwatering for running backs. Plus, Irving will get a chance to face Carolina again in the championship round. The rookie RB has a clear path to takeoff for the fantasy playoffs and will likely be the catalyst for a lot of championship teams.
Can’t Trust Gus
With news over the weekend that J.K. Dobbins was headed for injured reserve, fantasy mangers who rostered Gus Edwards felt a glimmer of hope that he could provide strong RB2 numbers the rest of the season. The first outing with him as the lead back didn’t work out well as he saw just six carries for 32 yards. Rookie Kimani Vidal saw just four carries, however, so the ground game as a whole never really got going for the Chargers. It was a strange game, as the Chargers only played 46 offensive snaps, which tied a season-low. Edwards will remain the lead back, and should get more opportunities moving forward in more positive game scripts, but the schedule ahead is daunting. The Chargers play the Chiefs and Broncos in two out of the next three weeks, so approach Edwards with caution. With Byepocalypse coming, you might have to start him out of necessity, but view him more as a flex option rather than a sturdy RB2.
Westbrook-Ikhine’s TD Run Has To End, Right?
I’ve been hesitant to bring up Nick Westbrook-Ikhine‘s touchdown streak because I was convinced it would end soon. But each week he continues to shock us all, compiling insane touchdown to reception numbers. He only has 20 catches this season, but eight have been for scores. It’s been a remarkable run, but it has to come to a halt soon, right? Well the Titans face the hapless Jaguars next week, then take on the Bengals, Colts and Jaguars again in the fantasy championship. With those matchups, it feels like his TD streak could live on. Like Andy has been hammering home, he plays almost 100% of snaps, so there’s always a chance. Start him at your own risk.
Sit Stroud Rest of Season
The Texans squeaked out a 23-20 victory against the Jaguars on Sunday, but unfortunately we learned that C.J. Stroud isn’t startable for fantasy the rest of the season. If it wasn’t going to happen against Jacksonville, it’s not going to happen at all. Stroud has been one of the bigger disappointments in fantasy this year considering his draft capital. He’s helped the Texans win games and they are lined up to make the postseason, but for fantasy purposes, he belongs on the bench. Even in what seems like a plus matchup against the pass-funnel Baltimore defense in the fantasy championship, don’t risk starting Stroud.
The Case for Caleb
Thomas Brown has been a much-needed upgrade for Caleb Williams at the offensive coordinator position and now we’ll get to see what he does as the interim head coach with Matt Eberflus out in Chicago. Since Brown took over for Shane Waldron as OC, Williams is averaging 10 more fantasy points per game and finished as the QB3 in Week 13 (excluding in the Monday night game). The No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is finally making a case to be a starting fantasy quarterback, and with a rematch against the Lions on the docket and fantasy championship showdown with the Seahawks ahead, dare I say he could be a league-winning quarterback down the stretch.
Touchdowns Evading Malik Nabers
Malik Nabers is barely holding onto a WR1 spot (No. 12 overall) in PPR formats but has been uninspiring as of late. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 and will have either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito throwing him the ball the rest of the season. There’s a very good chance he doesn’t score another touchdown this year. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t be starting Nabers, but he’s fallen from a stud WR1 in the first few weeks of the season to what feels like a low-end WR2 who needs to be peppered with targets to stay fantasy-relevant. He saw 13 targets against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but turned them into only eight catches for 69 yards. Temper expectations moving forward.
Time to Fall Back in Love
It hasn’t been pretty for Jordan Love this season, who has had to deal with injuries to his wide receivers, missed games himself and most recently, freezing temperatures in Green Bay. But he had a great game on Thanksgiving day, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay’s 30-17 win over Miami. He’s only been a top-10 quarterback twice this year, but has a chance to double that number at the very least over the next few weeks. The Packers play the Lions on Thursday and then the Seahawks followed by the Saints. Points will be had in these matchups, and while Josh Jacobs has picked up the scoring load on his part, Love should see his fantasy numbers ascend down the home stretch. The Love we saw on Thursday is what we should expect to see to close out the 2024 campaign.
Kyle Pitts, What Could Have Been…
There was hope. I believed. The TE2 from Weeks 5 through Week 8. A monster 23.1 fantasy points performance in Week 8 (91 receiving yards and two touchdowns). But since that fateful afternoon, Kyle Pitts has scored a total of 10.5 fantasy points in four games. He’s coming off his second goose of the season. And his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is having one of the worst stretches in football. Cousins has thrown six interceptions and no touchdown passes in the last three games. There will always be the question of “what if” with Pitts. His draft capital, his athleticism and ability to catch the ball is rare to find at the tight end position. But he’s had almost three years since his encouraging rookie campaign to show the league what he’s got. And so far it’s been a whole lot of mediocre to poor play.
Pickens Playing Himself out of Favor
Mike Tomlin is the ultimate players coach, but he doesn’t tolerate shenanigans. After the Steeler’s 44-38 victory over the Bengals on Sunday, Tomlin called out George Pickens, who had two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties called against him. “He’s got to grow up in a hurry,” Tomlin told reporters after the game. The previous week, Pickens got in a fight with Browns defensive back Greg Newsome II at the end of the game. Russell Wilson was targeting Pickens heavily to start Sunday’s game against Cincinnati, but those targets seemed to dwindle after the second penalty on Pickens. As a matter of fact, Pickens received just one target the rest of the game after his second penalty on the first drive to start the second half. Pickens is ultra-talented and has been helping fantasy managers tremendously since Wilson took over the starting quarterback job. But I fear his nonsensical behavior is going to cost him playing time. Let’s hope he gets his act together and avoids Tomlin’s doghouse.
Invest in Insurance Backs
Consider this a friendly reminder to scoop up backup running backs who could be inserted into fantasy lineups in case the starter gets hurt. We saw how important Jordan Mason was with Christian McCaffrey out to start the season – ironically both players hit IR today leaving Isaac Guerendo as the last running back standing in San Francisco. Blake Corum is starting to get more playing time, seeing a season-high 32% of snaps on Sunday. Chris Rodriguez Jr. filled in for the injured Austin Ekeler with 28% of snaps against the Titans. A banged-up Breece Hall saw his lowest snap count percentage of the season in Week 13, ceding opportunities to Braelon Allen. Ray Davis scored for Buffalo and Antonio Gibson scored for New England. Just keep an eye on the insurance RBs who are available on waivers, particularly this week where tons of fantasy-relevant players might get dropped with six teams on bye.