Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
Bye-bye-bye, Bye! After the first of the mega-bye weeks this season, all teams are back on the schedule for Week 8, and this is crunch time for fantasy rosters that got off to a slow start.
Welcome back to the TPRR report as we look ahead to Week 8 in the NFL. This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
Week 7 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 6’s top 15 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15 🎉 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Cooper Kupp (18.8% TPRR) had his worst non-injury-related performance in recent memory, only managing to secure two of his seven targets for 29 yards. Puka Nacua (40% TPRR) was the featured receiver for Matthew Stafford. While this week shows that Kupp is not impervious to down weeks with Nacua and Tutu Atwell around, it’s worth noting that: a) the Rams lost this week, and b) Stafford only attempted 29 passes. The lack of pass attempts the last two weeks is concerning, but the Rams face the rested Cowboys in Week 8 and may need to get back to their gunslinging ways.
- Finally. After weeks and weeks of waiting, fantasy managers were rewarded with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (30.4%). If D.K. Metcalf misses more time, JSN would be start-worthy again in Week 8, albeit with no small amount of risk. Cleveland represents a tough matchup, and Geno Smith hasn’t resembled his 2022 form. There simply hasn’t been enough offense to support multiple receivers in Seattle, so JSN or Tyler Lockett could be the odd man out any given week.
- Diontae Johnson (25% TPRR) slotted right back into a prominent role in his return from Injured Reserve, running a route on 24 of Pittsburgh’s 29 passing plays. George Pickens (28.6% TPRR) led the way, however, and both receivers are poised to be relevant for the next several weeks, especially in PPR leagues. Pittsburgh is averaging the eighth-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL (192 Yds/G), but they’re even worse in the run game (81 Yds/G). Plus, the absence of Pat Freiermuth (IR) means the targets should be heavily consolidated toward their top receivers.
- Josh Downs (24% TPRR) rounds out this list, but the improvement from last week is deceiving. Despite a TPRR of only 16% in Week 6, Downs actually saw fewer targets in Week 7 and only one more target than Michael Pittman. The Colts came with a game plan to #EstablishIt and limited Gardner Minshew‘s pass attempts from 55 to 23. Welcome back, Jonathan Taylor, btw! Moving forward, both Downs and Pitty City have the talent for spike weeks, but Downs in particular has a very low floor.
Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 5. Note: The minimum routes run for this list remains at 90 following Week 7 to account for the number of byes. Next week, this number will increase to 105 routes run.
The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Tyreek Hill is like the four-year-old in peewee soccer who figured out coordination before everyone else. It just looks unfair, and it’s almost easy to disregard it after a while. It may not be helpful to mention it most weeks, but what he’s doing is historic. Moving on.
- A.J. Brown (27.59%) rises another five spots on the leaderboard and is dominating targets in Philadelphia. Brown has been targeted eight or more times in all but one game this season, and he’s erased any doubt as to who the No. 1 is for Jalen Hurts.
- You won’t find him in the top 25 yet, but Jordan Addison jumped six spots this week, due to a 30.3% TPRR in the Vikings’ second game without Justin Jefferson. All signs point to the rookie surpassing KJ Osborn for good. (See the full TPRR list below).
- While it may seem like A.J. Brown‘s excellence is directly limiting DeVonta Smith (17.56% TPRR), that’s not necessarily the case. Dallas Goedert, whose reemergence as a TE1 has loosely coincided with Smith’s drop in production, is more likely to be a pain point for Smith managers moving forward.
- Calvin Ridley (18.58% TPRR) followed up a disappointing Week 6 with an absolute embarrassment against New Orleans, securing only one of his four targets for a total of five yards. His name still carries value, but it’s concerning that Ridley has not been able to set himself apart from ostensibly less-talented teammates, especially with Zay Jones out of the picture. The Jaguars take on the Steelers in Week 8 in a game that boasts a dismal 41.5-point total.
Full TPRR List
This list includes all WRs with at least 90 routes run on the season.
|Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 90 Routes)|
|5||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||228||66||28.95%|
|29||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||275||62||22.55%|
|52||Odell Beckham Jr.||BLT||120||22||18.33%|
|54||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||138||25||18.12%|
|68||Calvin Austin III||PIT||144||22||15.28%|
|70||Allen Robinson II||PIT||175||26||14.86%|
|86||DJ Chark Jr.||CAR||194||25||12.89%|
|94||Marvin Jones Jr.||DET||93||9||9.68%|