Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 7 in the NFL. As a reminder, six teams are heading to their bye, so some of these recommendations might require an extra week of patience.

This weekly series will give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 6 Recap

Here’s a look at Week 6’s top 15 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15  🎉 routes run):

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Takeaways

• From a TPRR perspective, Terry McLaurin bounced back in Week 6 against the Falcons, seeing 12 targets on 27 routes run. The big games haven’t materialized yet, but they should be just around the corner. Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson—McLaurin’s competition for targets—had fewer targets combined (six) than Scary Terry had on his own in Week 6.
• And the big winner of the Justin Jefferson’s vacated targets sweepstakes is….no one? Jordan Addison got his fourth touchdown in six games, but he and K.J. Osborn had identical target rates (15% TPRR), each seeing five targets on 33 routes run. On the one hand, we could see some touchdown regression for Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson has seen eight or more targets in all but one game this season. On the other hand, he’s clearly a red zone target for Kirk Cousins and carries more upside than Osborn. The Vikings have a tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 7, so it might not be sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows just yet.
• We have to talk about Adam Thielen. Thielen had a bad Week 1 in Bryce Young‘s NFL debut. Since then, Thielen has been a WR2 or better every week of the season. From Weeks 2-6, Old Man Thielen has averaged 11 targets and 20.0 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring. Tyreek Hill has averaged 20.2 in the same stretch. The Panthers are on bye in Week 7, so it might feel like it’s time to sell high on Thielen. I can’t argue with the logic, but I also won’t blame you if you decide you’re Thielen’ it for the rest of the season.

Season Leaders

Now that we are a few weeks into the season, we can start looking at season leaders to project opportunity and performance in the weeks ahead. The right-hand column (+/-) will show a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week. Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 5 (min. 90 routes run):

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Biggest Risers

• Stefon Diggs (30.3% TPRR) jumps into second place on the back of a 16-target night against the Giants. The scoresheet doesn’t jump out because he didn’t find the end zone, but Diggs has one of the best combinations of floor and ceiling in all of fantasy.
• Jaylen Waddle (24.1% TPRR) continues his ascent after a slow start to the season, climbing another nine spots and into the top 25. The Dolphins’ PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) doesn’t jump off the page, but Miami leads every major offensive category in the NFL.

Biggest Fallers

• I hope you capitalized on DeAndre Hopkins after last week. He’s still boasting an impressive 26% TPRR, but the Titans are headed into their bye averaging a paltry 173 passing yards per game. As if that wasn’t enough, they could be without Ryan Tannehill moving forward. I’d like to say it couldn’t get worse, but Malik Willis and/or Will Levis might prove me wrong.
• Josh Reynolds‘s TPRR has bounced back and forth this season and settled around 16%. At this point, he’s shaping up to be more of a touchdown-dependent desperation play unless Amon-Ra St. Brown misses time. I’m not committed to him occupying a roster spot on fantasy benches.

Full TPRR List

This list includes all WRs with at least 90 routes run on the season.

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Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 90 Routes)
Rk	Player	Team	Routes	Targets	TPRR
1	Tyreek Hill	MIA	162	56	34.6%
2	Stefon Diggs	BUF	211	64	30.3%
3	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	124	36	29.0%
4	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	249	71	28.5%
5	Mike Evans	TB	137	39	28.5%
6	Davante Adams	LV	210	59	28.1%
7	Puka Nacua	LA	238	66	27.7%
8	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	172	47	27.3%
9	Keenan Allen	LAC	203	54	26.6%
10	Marquise Brown	ARZ	205	54	26.3%
11	Justin Jefferson	MIN	199	52	26.1%
12	DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	169	44	26.0%
13	Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	97	25	25.8%
14	A.J. Brown	PHI	229	58	25.3%
15	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	209	52	24.9%
16	JuJu Smith-Schuster	NE	97	24	24.7%
17	Jakobi Meyers	LV	174	43	24.7%
18	Chris Olave	NO	222	54	24.3%
19	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	145	35	24.1%
20	Adam Thielen	CAR	248	59	23.8%
21	Kendrick Bourne	NE	186	44	23.7%
22	Mike Williams	LAC	107	25	23.4%
23	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	245	57	23.3%
24	Nico Collins	HST	182	42	23.1%
25	Zay Flowers	BLT	205	47	22.9%
26	Romeo Doubs	GB	154	35	22.7%
27	Chris Godwin	TB	160	36	22.5%
28	George Pickens	PIT	175	39	22.3%
29	Robert Woods	HST	186	40	21.5%
30	Deebo Samuel	SF	140	30	21.4%
31	Tee Higgins	CIN	159	34	21.4%
32	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	198	42	21.2%
33	Christian Kirk	JAX	218	46	21.1%
33	Parris Campbell	NYG	109	23	21.1%
35	Michael Thomas	NO	219	46	21.0%
36	Tyler Lockett	SEA	164	34	20.7%
37	Drake London	ATL	208	43	20.7%
38	Amari Cooper	CLV	171	35	20.5%
39	Tank Dell	HST	137	28	20.4%
40	Jayden Reed	GB	123	25	20.3%
41	Terry McLaurin	WAS	220	43	19.5%
42	Calvin Ridley	JAX	221	43	19.5%
43	DJ Moore	CHI	211	41	19.4%
44	Elijah Moore	CLV	171	33	19.3%
45	Josh Downs	IND	202	38	18.8%
46	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	160	30	18.8%
46	Braxton Berrios	MIA	112	21	18.8%
48	Michael Gallup	DAL	173	32	18.5%
49	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	157	29	18.5%
50	Terrace Marshall Jr.	CAR	138	25	18.1%
51	DeVonta Smith	PHI	243	44	18.1%
52	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	131	23	17.6%
53	Courtland Sutton	DEN	201	35	17.4%
54	Tutu Atwell	LA	233	40	17.2%
55	Tyler Boyd	CIN	232	39	16.8%
56	Joshua Palmer	LAC	168	28	16.7%
57	Curtis Samuel	WAS	187	31	16.6%
58	Jonathan Mingo	CAR	171	28	16.4%
59	Mack Hollins	ATL	129	21	16.3%
60	Josh Reynolds	DET	162	26	16.0%
61	Jordan Addison	MIN	200	32	16.0%
62	Calvin Austin III	PIT	138	22	15.9%
63	Nelson Agholor	BLT	126	20	15.9%
64	Brandin Cooks	DAL	145	23	15.9%
65	Allen Robinson II	PIT	160	25	15.6%
66	Gabe Davis	BUF	198	30	15.2%
66	Odell Beckham Jr.	BLT	99	15	15.2%
68	Rashod Bateman	BLT	101	15	14.9%
69	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	152	22	14.5%
70	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	99	14	14.1%
71	Rashid Shaheed	NO	180	25	13.9%
72	Rondale Moore	ARZ	161	22	13.7%
73	Trey Palmer	TB	112	15	13.4%
74	Skyy Moore	KC	150	20	13.3%
74	Chase Claypool	MIA	90	12	13.3%
76	Michael Wilson	ARZ	173	23	13.3%
77	Justin Watson	KC	128	17	13.3%
78	DeVante Parker	NE	167	22	13.2%
79	DJ Chark Jr.	CAR	194	25	12.9%
80	K.J. Osborn	MIN	236	30	12.7%
81	Darius Slayton	NYG	217	27	12.4%
82	Jahan Dotson	WAS	227	28	12.3%
83	Allen Lazard	NYJ	194	23	11.9%
84	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	122	14	11.5%
85	Brandon Johnson	DEN	115	12	10.4%
86	Darnell Mooney	CHI	167	17	10.2%
87	Alec Pierce	IND	218	22	10.1%
88	Marvin Jones Jr.	DET	93	9	9.7%
89	Van Jefferson	ATL	177	17	9.6%
90	Randall Cobb	NYJ	129	12	9.3%
91	Hunter Renfrow	LV	102	9	8.8%
92	Donovan Peoples-Jones	CLV	168	14	8.3%
93	Jalin Hyatt	NYG	133	9	6.8%
94	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	KC	182	12	6.6%
95	Olamide Zaccheaus	PHI	136	7	5.1%