Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 17 (Fantasy Football)

Note: Targets per Route Run (TPRR) is an efficiency metric (expressed as a percentage) used to highlight the correlation between performance and opportunity. With TPRR, we can look deeper than raw target totals to find players poised for breakouts or breakdowns. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s primer and my 2022 season preview. 

Week 16 Recap

If you’re reading this, you’re either in your league championship or stuck in the denial phase of your grief. (If it’s the latter, go drown your sorrows in some Week 17 DFS). Again, I don’t have to tell you Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson are worth starting, so I’m highlighting some strong performances and insights into opportunities for Week 17. Let’s get that #FootClanTitle!

Here’s a look at Week 15’s top 25 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 15 routes run):

*Route and Target data via PFF.com

Key Observations

• Keenan Allen was phenomenal again and tops the list. As usual, he did it without a touchdown. If Allen manages to find the end zone in addition to his usual production, he could be a league winner for your team.
• Jahan Dotson is giving us the rookie second-half breakout. Dotson has a 22.4% TPRR in his last three games and has run 30+ routes in each of them. A potential switch to Carson Wentz at quarterback gives me pause, but Dotson is making a case to be started regardless of who is under center for the Commanders.
• Kendrick Bourne has shown a propensity to have some blow-up weeks late in the season, but can you start him in Week 17 against Miami? Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol for the second time this season, so Miami’s offense could be hampered in Week 17. The best chance for Bourne would be a high-scoring affair with Miami, but it’s not something I’m counting on. Even with Bourne showing he can make the most of limited opportunities, I’d look elsewhere for a risk/reward option in my flex spot.
• Drake London saw another nine targets in Week 9. As mentioned before, London should command the majority of Atlanta’s small passing pie for the remainder of the season. He’s even more appealing in full PP…R, but London is flex-worthy in 12-team leagues.
• He didn’t qualify for this list with only 14 routes run, but Rashid Shaheed (35.7% TPRR) is a dart throw that could pay off in Week 17. If Chris Olave (hamstring) remains sidelined, Shaheed will likely operate as the WR1 for New Orleans’ depleted receiving corps.
• Christian Watson was seemingly on his way to a big week before exiting Week 16’s win against Miami, catching six passes on eight targets in the first half. If he practices all week, I’m comfortable starting Watson against the Vikings.
• Both Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins had solid weeks, but I’m not putting my fantasy fate in the hands of any Giants receiver. New York passed on 68% of their offensive snaps in Week 16, a high mark that isn’t likely to be reached in a positive game script against the lowly Colts.

Season Leaders

To eliminate irrelevant data, I’ve set the season minimum to 40 targets. The right-hand column shows the change in rankings from the previous week. Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 15:

*Route and Target data via PFF.com

Positives

• Correlation update: the relationship between fantasy rankings and TPRR is holding strong, with a 64.8% correlation score for the season. When you look at fantasy points per game (to take out the impact of injuries), the correlation is even stronger at 74%.
• Rookie watch: Drake London and Chris Olave are veritable locks to finish as the top TPRR rookies in 2022, but Christian Watson is nipping at their heels. If he plays in Weeks 17 and 18, we could see a third rookie in the top 10 for the season. Wild.
• Jalen Hurts missed Week 16, and somehow DeVonta Smith was even better. With a 21% season TPRR, Smith has jumped into the top 30 and is a must-start, regardless of his starting quarterback.

Negatives

• Adam Thielen showed what can happen when he fails to score a touchdown. Thielen has run the second-most routes (teammate Justin Jefferson has the most at 637) among qualified receivers but only has seen a target on 15.5% of those routes. We could see Thielen bounce back against the Packers, but his floor is as low as it’s ever been.
• Stefon Diggs has had a rough three weeks after lighting up the season, and his 8% TPRR in Week 16 is his lowest of this year. It’s his worst stretch of the season, but you’re starting him if you’ve made it to the championship.